The strategy behind all this is based on a successful discretionary technique I learned a couple years ago. I didn't want to use it at first because so many other ideas were more interesting to me, but they have all been disqualified, over time, in live discretionary trading.
I'm ready to go live now. My current employer will be making that as difficult as possible, unfortunately. No personal computers or even cell phones allowed inside the plant.
Check out my thread in career trader "trend following + range trading" for the first iteration of the automated system, SPY being the first victim. That system is up over 10% since I posted that thread. I paper traded it at my last job and watched it execute exactly per the simulation.
The main risks that worry me are connection and data issues, the need for an equity curve signal to switch the strats on / off based on performance, overnight moves are always potentially dangerous, etc. And of course, the risk of me interfering with the programs out of doubt.
But the strat itself is the best thing I've ever tried and the only thing that has made money for me consistently when discretionary trading on a couple different time frames, many different stocks and commodity etf's. I also watched one of my early subscription services demonstrate it, to my dismay, pulling in win rates of 70-90% with roughly 3-R, as I got spanked continually with fundamental (emotional) trading. It is based on two indicators. And each strat has between six and nine degrees of freedom, depending if you count your risk and trailing stops.
I've also seen a slight variation of the strat presented in Trading Systems by Jaeckle and Tomasini, where they walk you through (pun intended) the entire design and optimization process, including out of sample tests, monte carlo and parameter sensitivity analysis. It's not a new idea.
I'm ready to go live now. My current employer will be making that as difficult as possible, unfortunately. No personal computers or even cell phones allowed inside the plant.
Check out my thread in career trader "trend following + range trading" for the first iteration of the automated system, SPY being the first victim. That system is up over 10% since I posted that thread. I paper traded it at my last job and watched it execute exactly per the simulation.
The main risks that worry me are connection and data issues, the need for an equity curve signal to switch the strats on / off based on performance, overnight moves are always potentially dangerous, etc. And of course, the risk of me interfering with the programs out of doubt.
But the strat itself is the best thing I've ever tried and the only thing that has made money for me consistently when discretionary trading on a couple different time frames, many different stocks and commodity etf's. I also watched one of my early subscription services demonstrate it, to my dismay, pulling in win rates of 70-90% with roughly 3-R, as I got spanked continually with fundamental (emotional) trading. It is based on two indicators. And each strat has between six and nine degrees of freedom, depending if you count your risk and trailing stops.
I've also seen a slight variation of the strat presented in Trading Systems by Jaeckle and Tomasini, where they walk you through (pun intended) the entire design and optimization process, including out of sample tests, monte carlo and parameter sensitivity analysis. It's not a new idea.
