Trades on AAPL and FB

Before the results come out, those who are long AAPL should consider these three scenarios if they do not sell before the earnings:
1- Stock goes up to let's say 175 and they would be happy that they did not sell it and would make more money.
2- Stock would drop substantially to what it was before the earnings let's say $155. They would lose great amount in their account and would always blame themselves that why they did not sell before the earnings. This pain would last for a very long time and they would blame everyone for this back "LUCK". They would not have any ammunition to trade and get their money back.
3- Stock would freeze at the price of before earnings. The risk of keeping the shares does not justify the flat performance after the earning.

Now close your eyes and imagine yourself and your account in one of those possible situations and then decide what is best for you.
 
Here is why I believe AAPL will pull back no matter the results are good or not:
AAPL market value went up 120B in the last 8 days (100B accounting Wed pull back). APPL is saying it plans to sell 20 million IPhone X in the next couple of months. I say let's increase 50% and make it 30 million units.
Increase in market value per Iphone X = 120,000,000,000/30,000,000 = $4000
It means for every $1000 phone the market cap has gone up $4000 !!!.
You might argue that in the future they will sell more units. Then I should say are you sure? Are you sure IPhone will not have battery problem? as some testers are saying battery was gone quickly in their test. Or some other issues.
I agree that AAPL will or might go to $400 but not the next couple of years.
 
hajimow said:
I agree that AAPL will or might go to $400 but not the next couple of years.
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AAPL has split their stock 4 times... It was 400 dollars but not in today's context at all.... After adjusting for splits, the stock has never touched that level. No the stock will not likely more than double in a year or two.... Also I agree with you that apple will fall on earnings, but not for any of the reasons you have posted. You cant divide the market cap increase by the amount of phones to get reasoning Lmao. Its about the trend brotha. Keep it simple. Weekly chart attached.....
 

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Apple public at $22 and went down an almost out of business in the mid to late 90's. Cost basis of an original share split adjusted is $.39. An original hundred is now 56000 after 4 splits. The original 100 now pays dividend(as 5600 shares) $14112 annually.
The original $2200 investment is currently worth a little over $941,000 and you had the better part of a decade to buy it in the $10 area.
Who says the market doesn't create wealth?
 
hajimow said:
By the way I am not recommending shorting AAPL if you really do not know what you are doing. I am saying selling at the news and stepping on the sidelines and waiting the earnings to come out and then decide what to do. You will not go bankrupt by taking profit.
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I'm not sure that you know what you are doing. But I'll give you the benefit of a doubt. If you could outline exactly what your option trades were concerning AMZN and AAPL since last Wednesday. it will give us a more complete picture of how you trade.

Going off strictly what you posted, you took a large loss on selling AMZN 980 calls. No big deal, it's part of the risk you took on. Perhaps your size was tiny, like one call, which would be material but not onerous. But I remember when you were selling MCD puts you were doing significant volume. You are of course under no obligation to post any of this, but if so I can only conclude a lot of what you post is misleading.
 
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I did the opposite of what was suggested here. When AAPL dipped today to 166$ I purchased Jan 170 calls for 5.85. On closing, Apple was at 168 and calls were going for 6.5. If the after hours price of 173$ stays until tomorrow, my calls will be very much in the money!
 
I have no big positions on AAPL and I just quickly looked at their report. Their earnings beat the estimate but YOY unit sales of Iphone is flat. Don't trust my post. Check it out yourself and I will try to dig into the earning report again. If they avoid answering questions on Iphone X unit sale, I expect the stock to go down.
 
Nine_Ender said:
I'm not sure that you know what you are doing. But I'll give you the benefit of a doubt. If you could outline exactly what your option trades were concerning AMZN and AAPL since last Wednesday. it will give us a more complete picture of how you trade.

Going off strictly what you posted, you took a large loss on selling AMZN 980 calls. No big deal, it's part of the risk you took on. Perhaps your size was tiny, like one call, which would be material but not onerous. But I remember when you were selling MCD puts you were doing significant volume. You are of course under no obligation to post any of this, but if so I can only conclude a lot of what you post is misleading.
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No I did not sell 980 Call. If you read my post I suggested that maybe that is a good idea to sell 980 call and put. I was short 100 shares and I also sold 2x 980 PUT. Now I am short 1085 PUT for tomorrow.
About MCD, I posted that I got out at 120 even. I started to short from around 93. Let me post you my positions on CAT which most probably expire tomorrow and see how I handle the situations. You can go ahead and criticize me but no one who is criticizing me has posted any trade. It seems that they are working in an investment magazine who only publish articles and talk about things after the fact. You ask my trades, I show you my trades. My options for this week on CAT will follow this post.
 
I also remember that I was posting my trades on MCD earlier. No need to dig into that and repost them . I will post my trades on AAPL tomorrow for a reason. Here are my expiring options on CAT, KMX, COST just for tomorrow. Yes 31 PUTs only on CAT and only for this week. Please let me know if you see ANY loss. These will be added to my account and next week I will rinse and repeat till they hit my target.

KMX.GIF
CAT_options.GIF
COST.GIF
 
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