Trades on AAPL and FB

H

hajimow

AAPL is in consumer electronics and and a DOW stock. Do not expect too much volatility after report. The chance that AAPL drops after report is higher than going up. Many are buying it that maybe it will repeat AMZN stock performance. No way that can happen. Selling some Iphone X is not a magic with production issue. The possibility that we see unhappy customers because of an issue as a result of pushing it out of the door is high.
Here are the trades that I recommend.
Sell 2x170 and 2x175 Call and sell 4x140 Put

On FB you can do the following trade with possibility of 10X profit.
Buy weekly 190 Call and sell 195 call for the debit of 0.5. Max loss is $50 for each 100 shares and $450 profit.

By the way taking profit on AMZN greatly makes sense. I still have bearish outlook on CAT. COST should drop another $2. FB getting into selling cars is putting pressure on KMX.
 
If you have too much faith on AAPL (which I don't and I believe everything is priced in) just sell PUT credit spread. 162.5-157.5 weekly. You can use the premium collected to buy the FB call spread. So everything will be free.
 
Selling the 140 naked put won’t get you much as of right now. Perhaps selling it at 162.5 makes more sense. Now you’re suggesting a put credit spread. I thought about that combined with a bear call spread on Apple. But doing that after earnings. What’s the point now? Once the dust settles you can do it weekly.

Same thing for FB. Isn’t it better to wait after earnings?
 
You have many naked options.

I guess you have deep pocket to prevent margin call from either the call or put option.

I traded naked option once before.
It was an extremely painful experience.
Thou shall not do such thing anymore.
 
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AAPL is up from 155 to almost 170 in less than 8 days. That means increase in the market cap of 120 billion !!!. Will selling limited number of Iphone X justify it? Will those who are waiting for Iphone X buy it or change their mind? Will this rush in production increase the possibility of bugs and lots of return? Well time will tell.
I am sure about one thing. Two months from now Iphone X would be a regular smartphone or even a crappy phone. New phones are always coming.
 
Well how much is 120B overvaluation in the last 8 days? It is equal to TWO times of the whole GM company !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
By the way I am not recommending shorting AAPL if you really do not know what you are doing. I am saying selling at the news and stepping on the sidelines and waiting the earnings to come out and then decide what to do. You will not go bankrupt by taking profit.
 
I'll be going into earnings with a put ratio using the November 3 expiry with a ratio of:
-long 170 x 1
-short 165 x 2

I'm also long the 170/160 put spread in the regular November expiry.

And patiently short NQ.

Looking for results that the wolf was looking for. :)

 
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