Trades for Tuesday

CaroKann · Mar 11, 2003

Quote from VOLUME:

Where are you getting your information from...I use Real Tick.

On my charts, ES reached 810.75 at 1:52...that was the HIGHEST tick for them since 10:28.

They were in a 4 point range since 11:40....and didn't break that range (806) until 2:39....almost a full hour after your "optimal time entry"

Give credit where credit is due.. just look at a 5-min chart and 1:50 definitely looks like a maxima. i.e. short at 1:50 with 1.5 pt stop and you would have made money.

Also, I wouldn't knock a system for not predicting a direction, especially if it's just supposed to be some kind of confirmation signal. If you trade candle patterns (I don't) then you know a doji is not bearish or bullish, just a possible reversal.

Given that, here's my problem with Walter's signal(s). Look at his times: 9:45, 13:50, 10:25. etc. They are also pretty close to a minima or maxima at those times yesterday. In fact, pick any day of the month and one or several of those times looks pretty good.. so my question to Walter is this: how is this better than random for me? I mean, how will this help my trading?

The second problem I have is with the phrase "see if you have a tradeable setup at XXX." If my own system has a setup at that time, WHAT GOOD IS YOUR SIGNAL DOING ME? I already have a trade at that time!

Walther · Mar 11, 2003

Quote from CaroKann:

Give credit where credit is due.. just look at a 5-min chart and 1:50 definitely looks like a maxima. i.e. short at 1:50 with 1.5 pt stop and you would have made money.

Exactly

Also, I wouldn't knock a system for not predicting a direction, especially if it's just supposed to be some kind of confirmation signal. If you trade candle patterns (I don't) then you know a doji is not bearish or bullish, just a possible reversal.

Exactly, if one cannot decide on direction, stay flat.

Given that, here's my problem with Walter's signal(s). Look at his times: 9:45, 13:50, 10:25. etc. They are also pretty close to a minima or maxima at those times yesterday. In fact, pick any day of the month and one or several of those times looks pretty good.. so my question to Walter is this: how is this better than random for me? I mean, how will this help my trading?

My treads were just continuation of "Drummond Geometry " tread.
several members pm'd me and asked if I could demonstrate predictive ability of my method. So I did. Most of these people are doing something similar or even better and more accurate then I do so all I did to post times 1 day ahead of the time.
During the day I did adjustments on 1 min charts but did not post it ( except 13:50 trade). Mainly because Jesuits came out with flamethrowers.
Only way my method will help you is
1/ if you need a confirmation or reliable setup indicator.
2/ If you are in large position and you KNOW that there is a chance of reversal ahead of time, you might start scaling out earlier and not when reversal already took place . Because from experience you KNOW that reversal WILL come
3/ If your mechanical system needs to improve W/L ratio

The second problem I have is with the phrase "see if you have a tradeable setup at XXX." If my own system has a setup at that time, WHAT GOOD IS YOUR SIGNAL DOING ME? I already have a trade at that time!

Only as a confirmation.
If you have your own setup and trigger in place already and do not need additional confirmation then you have no need for it.
When you look at today's times I have posted and your signals are overlapping with them ,then again no need for it.
Thanks for an interest
Walter

zboy2854A · Mar 11, 2003

The 13:50 call was indeed impressive. All three major indices began their decline to the lows of the day within minutes of that time. And I see that you did post the call here at 13:40, a full 10 minutes before the break happened. I will certainly watch for a major directional move tomorrow at 11:25.

range · Mar 11, 2003

13:50 was a great call. there is value in an approach even if it only serves as a heads-up.

white17 · Mar 11, 2003

At risk of stating the obvious here, I'll do it anyway. It is well known that there is "almost always" a low at 10:00 and again at circa 14:40. A good deal of very basic futures literature mentions it and it's easy to see. Whatever Walther is doing I hope it works for him.

shadowtrader · Mar 11, 2003

Come on people!

If i posted four times during the 6 1/2 hours that the markets are open, what are the chances that one of them would be close to, but not necessarily exact on a turn in the markets? Pretty good I think. Especially when you don't give direction, and are looking at only one day. Note he didn't specify that the times would correspond to a high or low for the day.

Probably the same principle that fortune tellers use when they put out several common names. Chances are pretty good that some distant acquaintance has a similar name.

dbphoenix · Mar 11, 2003

Quote from zboy2854A:

The 13:50 call was indeed impressive. All three major indices began their decline to the lows of the day within minutes of that time. And I see that you did post the call here at 13:40, a full 10 minutes before the break happened. I will certainly watch for a major directional move tomorrow at 11:25.

You ought to pick up a copy of Taleb's Fooled by Randomness.

--Db

Walther · Mar 12, 2003

Quote from white17:

At risk of stating the obvious here, I'll do it anyway. It is well known that there is "almost always" a low at 10:00 and again at circa 14:40.

Very true, this is how I started with indexes, problem is an accuracy. Almost always is not good enough. If you look back you will see that my method was just a few points from daily high. Obviously, I have no idea which of the times will be the closest one but I know that one of them will be .
Today's 11:25 time I have picked from 3 others my method produced because it was strongest but usually I would be reluctant to open position just around the quiet period of the day.
Walter

zboy2854A · Mar 12, 2003

Quote from dbphoenix:

You ought to pick up a copy of Taleb's Fooled by Randomness.

--Db

I'm familiar with the book, but I believe the benefit of the doubt is at least in order at this early stage. It would be one thing to have named 10 different times for yesterday. But to name two times and one of them was EXACT when the market began a major break is certainly worth of the benefit of the doubt. I'm certainly no believer, and it may in the end amount to nothing more than stupendous luck, but as I said I'll be watching today around 11:25 for any major break or movement. If so, I would say there is more than randomness to the calls.

shadowtrader · Mar 12, 2003

Quote from zboy2854A:

I'm familiar with the book, but I believe the benefit of the doubt is at least in order at this early stage. It would be one thing to have named 10 different times for yesterday. But to name two times and one of them was EXACT when the market began a major break is certainly worth of the benefit of the doubt. I'm certainly no believer, and it may in the end amount to nothing more than stupendous luck, but as I said I'll be watching today around 11:25 for any major break or movement. If so, I would say there is more than randomness to the calls.

Didn't he name four times?