Trades for today

[SteveH]

That's kind of where I'm at. Trying to see if there's a way to increase odds to above those of roulette. And not really sure how to tell if my correct guesses/intuitions aren't false positives.

Don't worry about trying to increase your winning pct. 40-60% area is actually easier to trade. No such thing as long-term 70% avg winners with 2 to 1 avg reward for the risk taken (not even 1.5 to 1 for that matter).

Focus on your reward expected for the risk taken. If it's a winning system, your winning pct will converge to well-defined boundaries.

You're at a disadvantage if you choose currency pairs for your trading operations. They're not volatile enough. Focus on either the NQ, YM or RTY of the e-minis (or micros if you don't have sufficient funds and no, the ES is not volatile enough for beginners/intermediates). THEY have the volatility you need in the first 2 hours of trading to support what you want to get out of all of this. If you're in the US and can trade at night, then choose either the HSI or HHI on the Hong Kong Futures Exchange (HKFE). They also have mini contracts at 1/5th the big contracts' value.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

Don't worry about trying to increase your winning pct. 40-60% area is actually easier to trade. No such thing as long-term 70% avg winners with 2 to 1 avg reward for the risk taken (not even 1.5 to 1 for that matter).

Focus on your reward expected for the risk taken. If it's a winning system, your winning pct will converge to well-defined boundaries.

You're at a disadvantage if you choose currency pairs for your trading operations. They're not volatile enough. Focus on either the NQ, YM or RTY of the e-minis (or micros if you don't have sufficient funds and no, the ES is not volatile enough for beginners/intermediates). THEY have the volatility you need in the first 2 hours of trading to support what you want to get out of all of this. If you're in the US and can trade at night, then choose either the HSI or HHI on the Hong Kong Futures Exchange (HKFE). They also have mini contracts at 1/5th the big contracts' value.

Can you give me an example of what you mean by system?

I'll guess what I think you mean.

A system in trading = a combination of technical indicators (including trend lines) that tells you when to enter a trade. Set "stop loss" and "take profits" at predetermined intervals for the risk you're willing to take and so that the odds work in your favor for a long-term profit.

Casinos have been mentioned as examples of systems that make profit. Very true, but the casino can make the rules that way. I don't have as much control here.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

Don't worry about trying to increase your winning pct. 40-60% area is actually easier to trade. No such thing as long-term 70% avg winners with 2 to 1 avg reward for the risk taken (not even 1.5 to 1 for that matter).

Focus on your reward expected for the risk taken. If it's a winning system, your winning pct will converge to well-defined boundaries.

You're at a disadvantage if you choose currency pairs for your trading operations. They're not volatile enough. Focus on either the NQ, YM or RTY of the e-minis (or micros if you don't have sufficient funds and no, the ES is not volatile enough for beginners/intermediates). THEY have the volatility you need in the first 2 hours of trading to support what you want to get out of all of this. If you're in the US and can trade at night, then choose either the HSI or HHI on the Hong Kong Futures Exchange (HKFE). They also have mini contracts at 1/5th the big contracts' value.

Can you briefly describe your system of indicators?

 

[Zodiac4u]

These are fake currency pair trades. The reason for posting this is to see what changes to my strategy should be made, and I am still open to the possibility that none of this is a good idea.

My GUESSES for today. Two trades.

1. I bought GBP/JPY. I bought this because GBP went down yesterday because of renewed fears of a no-deal Brexit. I am of the opinion that Brexit fears are over exaggerated and that Britain will be just fine after leaving the EU. I viewed yesterday's action as an opportunity for a sale. I bet $50,000 fake dollars. After a few hours, I would have profited over $700. But now just a few hours later, I have lost over $3,200. Seeing as it's only been a few hours, it's difficult to tell when is too early to call a trade won or lost. For all I know, if I hold this for 1 year, I could have made or lost 200%. This still leaves me with little conclusions to draw. Still feels like roulette. I picked to get against JPY for no other reason than I have to pick a pair and that JPY is a safe haven. I figured if money would flow into GBP, it would tend to flow away from safe havens. I also could have picked CHF. I don't know if this is sound reasoning.

2. I bet on the USD/CHF. I did this at about 9:00am ET. This is because there were two news releases today for USA. The first was at 8:30am. This was the Housing Starts and Building Permits. Both of these beat expectations slightly. The 2nd news release was Capacity Utilization and Industrial and Manufacturing Output. I guessed that if the first news release beat expectations, so would the second.

Capacity Utilization was 0.1% short of estimate, but Industrial and Manufacturing Output beat expectations by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively.

Looking at the attached screenshot, you can see that the actual minute of 8:30 was slightly down (1 pip) but part of a larger short-term trend upwards that superceded the news release. Then there was a big uptrend from 8:42-8:56 that had nothing to do with the news releases. Then, at 9:15, it continued to go up as part of an unrelated force and I would guess the news release had little effect on the chart.

Conclusions? That these "minor" news releases don't form the basis of a trading strategy?

From Just looking at your chart, i would first suggest to you, to throw it away. Anyone with limited experience should not be using candle sticks. I am strictly old school, i like my high low close bars. My up bars are green and down bars are red. If its easier on the eyes, than you limit the mental gridlock.

 

[murray t turtle]

That's kind of where I'm at. Trying to see if there's a way to increase odds to above those of roulette. And not really sure how to tell if my correct guesses/intuitions aren't false positives.

%%
That sounds like gambling; but a trend study of REALTY + cash indexes/ETFs may provide a clue. Dividends can provide a clue; but IF i figured i could only make 1-2%dividends i would never put on the trade/invest.
WE use to gamble for quarters/pool hall , as kids; but IBD founder warned , never quibble oVer a quarter + miss the moVe. NOT saying trading/inVesting is gambling ;its not gambling @ all

 

[Snuskpelle]

@OP: I like your critical no BS approach. I think you're on a good track. At some point you have to bite the bullet and believe you can do it, though. But that point can be after successful sim trading for years. Staying on sim has the disadvantage that it doesn't teach you the psychology of dealing with losses, however.

On your comparisons to Soros et al, do keep in mind that someone that has to invest hundreds of millions of USD or more has far more limited options w.r.t. what strategies can be employed than someone investing $10k. On this forum you will see a range of traders trying to predict months ahead to those that are trying to predict a few seconds ahead (or even less than a millisecond, when people are doing HFT).

 

[farmerjohn1324]

@OP: I like your critical no BS approach. I think you're on a good track. At some point you have to bite the bullet and believe you can do it, though. But that point can be after successful sim trading for years. Staying on sim has the disadvantage that it doesn't teach you the psychology of dealing with losses, however.

On your comparisons to Soros et al, do keep in mind that someone that has to invest hundreds of millions of USD or more has far more limited options w.r.t. what strategies can be employed than someone investing $10k. On this forum you will see a range of traders trying to predict months ahead to those that are trying to predict a few seconds ahead (or even less than a millisecond, when people are doing HFT).

I deleted all my trading apps yesterday. Then, I released just the Fx one as a second thought...

All I'm willing to do is this: use a system of 3 indicators to tell me when to place a trade. Set the stop-loss and take-profit at time I enter the trade.

I will always have many things that will call me away from staring at charts all day. So that is what I'm after now.

 

[Snuskpelle]

I deleted all my trading apps yesterday. Then, I released just the Fx one as a second thought...

All I'm willing to do is this: use a system of 3 indicators to tell me when to place a trade. Set the stop-loss and take-profit at time I enter the trade.

I will always have many things that will call me away from staring at charts all day. So that is what I'm after now.

I wasn't referring to your specific trades, rather more generally your reasoning and quest for something that will work for you personally. Some people end up spending years doing things that will never work for them; you seem to quickly circumvent that which is great.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

I wasn't referring to your specific trades, rather more generally your reasoning and quest for something that will work for you personally. Some people end up spending years doing things that will never work for them; you seem to quickly circumvent that which is great.

Thanks for the compliment. But I actually have lost money because I bet in leveraged funds on Schwab earlier this year.