TraderTony's Journal
- Thread starter tradertony76
- Start date
I'm going through Velocity Futures. You can sign up on their web page for it. Its like $50.
Alternately, you can PM mark from velocity futures (velocity_trader
on ET). If you're eventually looking to trade futures with real cash, he may be nice and hook you up.
-Tony
Alternately, you can PM mark from velocity futures (velocity_trader
on ET). If you're eventually looking to trade futures with real cash, he may be nice and hook you up.
-Tony
I'm trying to improve my price/volume analysis skills. Here is today's attempt.
1) Volume Spike on attempted selloff.
2) Attempted breakout. Volume surges on the red candle following selloff attempt. Price dips back below resistance seen on 30 minute chart.(Black horizontal)
3) Selloff attempt #2. Lower low made from last attempt and greater volume.
4) Last ditch effort from bulls to take this higher. Volume stinks.
5) Fasten your seatbelts. Bulls are sold out. We lose 66% of the the price from the last upward movement. Price retraces to zone of expected support. Will see tommorow if buyers show up.
1) Volume Spike on attempted selloff.
2) Attempted breakout. Volume surges on the red candle following selloff attempt. Price dips back below resistance seen on 30 minute chart.(Black horizontal)
3) Selloff attempt #2. Lower low made from last attempt and greater volume.
4) Last ditch effort from bulls to take this higher. Volume stinks.
5) Fasten your seatbelts. Bulls are sold out. We lose 66% of the the price from the last upward movement. Price retraces to zone of expected support. Will see tommorow if buyers show up.
Prevailing 30 Min trend had been up. Trendline defined from 1/12 and 1/13 lows. That trendline broke in yesteredays selloff.
ER2 found support in the 61200 area today. Attempted two rally's today, both failed. Closed around local 61200 support. Either look for the support to hold tommorow. Expect a drop to at least 60920 if support fails.
ER2 found support in the 61200 area today. Attempted two rally's today, both failed. Closed around local 61200 support. Either look for the support to hold tommorow. Expect a drop to at least 60920 if support fails.
Market was quite bipolar today. Long-Short-Long-Short was the theme of the day for traders riding trends on the 5 minute timeframe today.
1) Attempted selloff foiled. Market rally's back on strong volume.
2) Resistance found near violated trendline from 30 min chart. Last leg of rally on low volume. Could not sustain momentum.
3) Selloff on decent volume, but buyers found in area of 61200 support. Bounce off support line.
4) Second rally on weaker volume than first. This rally make a lower top.
5) Selloff on increasing volume. Support holds for now.
Due to price volume, expect violation of local support area tommorow.
1) Attempted selloff foiled. Market rally's back on strong volume.
2) Resistance found near violated trendline from 30 min chart. Last leg of rally on low volume. Could not sustain momentum.
3) Selloff on decent volume, but buyers found in area of 61200 support. Bounce off support line.
4) Second rally on weaker volume than first. This rally make a lower top.
5) Selloff on increasing volume. Support holds for now.
Due to price volume, expect violation of local support area tommorow.
Was reading Stocks & Commodities magazine on the train yesterday. One of the articles was an interview with a trader named Rick Ackerman. One part of the interview stuck out to me.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Interviewer: Is that what started you in technical analysis ?
Rick: I never used technical analysis when I was at the exchange. It seemed like the most technicall astute traders on the floor were the ones who tended to burn out - and blow out. I was skeptical about technical analysis at that point, because there were guys down on the floor who were very proficient technicians, who had gorgeous charts in four colors, and who were doing relatively sophisticated technical analysis; but it didnt seem to help as far as their profitability was concerned.
Interviewer: Why not ?
Rick: Trading skills and the skills of technical analysis certainly overlap, but a good technician is not necessarily a good trader. You have to combine the two skills, and you have to find technical tools and methods that mesh with your trading habits and disposition.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For me, I have spent the last three years studying and practicing technical analysis. I'd like to think I got pretty good at making nice looking charts. However, I started trading futures this month and was getting my clock cleaned daily.
I'm slowly realizing that trading and TA are indeed two separate and unique skills. I am really starting to beleive that trading first involves truly understanding the price/volume dynamic. The emphasis on the importance of volume is a matter of personal preference. But reading the tape is a key skill for success in trading.
TA tools can be useful, but also deadly. My dad is retired and runs a small woodworking business. He knows what he's doing, and can operate wood routers and circular saws with ease. If I tried to use them, my new nickname would be "Stumpy".
Same with TA. Blind trust in technical systems is deadly to ones account. The first step needs to be learning price/volume. After you're comfortable reading the tape, then you can begin to integrate TA tools to refine your trading.
Just my thoughts at this point in time !
-Tony
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Interviewer: Is that what started you in technical analysis ?
Rick: I never used technical analysis when I was at the exchange. It seemed like the most technicall astute traders on the floor were the ones who tended to burn out - and blow out. I was skeptical about technical analysis at that point, because there were guys down on the floor who were very proficient technicians, who had gorgeous charts in four colors, and who were doing relatively sophisticated technical analysis; but it didnt seem to help as far as their profitability was concerned.
Interviewer: Why not ?
Rick: Trading skills and the skills of technical analysis certainly overlap, but a good technician is not necessarily a good trader. You have to combine the two skills, and you have to find technical tools and methods that mesh with your trading habits and disposition.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For me, I have spent the last three years studying and practicing technical analysis. I'd like to think I got pretty good at making nice looking charts. However, I started trading futures this month and was getting my clock cleaned daily.
I'm slowly realizing that trading and TA are indeed two separate and unique skills. I am really starting to beleive that trading first involves truly understanding the price/volume dynamic. The emphasis on the importance of volume is a matter of personal preference. But reading the tape is a key skill for success in trading.
TA tools can be useful, but also deadly. My dad is retired and runs a small woodworking business. He knows what he's doing, and can operate wood routers and circular saws with ease. If I tried to use them, my new nickname would be "Stumpy".
Same with TA. Blind trust in technical systems is deadly to ones account. The first step needs to be learning price/volume. After you're comfortable reading the tape, then you can begin to integrate TA tools to refine your trading.
Just my thoughts at this point in time !
-Tony
No real suprises today. ER2 stayed range bound most of the day. Ended with selloff attempt. Resistance expected @ 60920, established from 1/13 selloff. Resistance indeed found, selloff low is 60930. Day ended with minor bounce of 60930 resistance.
A couple interesting things on the 5 minute chart.
1) Play of the day in my opinion was going short at the formation of the intraday head and shoulders. Great risk/reward ratio. Pattern played out to expectation and dropped all the way to intraday support level.
2) Couple interesting things on the breakout here. First, note a brief bounce to intraday support, now becoming resistance. Rally attempt is met by an "equal and opposite" candle. This leads to a drop down to support expected from the 30 minute chart. Selloff blocked at 30min support, with a bounce back off the support.
For Monday 1/24/05:
Lacking any fundamental changes, expect ER2 to range at opening monday between 61190-60920. Deviations from this range, especailly on the downside should be considered worth noting.
1) Play of the day in my opinion was going short at the formation of the intraday head and shoulders. Great risk/reward ratio. Pattern played out to expectation and dropped all the way to intraday support level.
2) Couple interesting things on the breakout here. First, note a brief bounce to intraday support, now becoming resistance. Rally attempt is met by an "equal and opposite" candle. This leads to a drop down to support expected from the 30 minute chart. Selloff blocked at 30min support, with a bounce back off the support.
For Monday 1/24/05:
Lacking any fundamental changes, expect ER2 to range at opening monday between 61190-60920. Deviations from this range, especailly on the downside should be considered worth noting.
Hey all,
I have not posted to my journal in awhile. Just felt like checking in and recording some of my thoughts. My recent tales are a somewhat cautionary tale to anyone who wants to get involved in this business.
To sum up my trading experience to date. I dropped out of my day job to pursue trading full time in 2004, under the guise of going back for my masters. Having graduated in Dec '05, I began hitting the pavement for a trading gig. Unfortunately I am too under experienced to get a "experienced required" trading position, and depending on the firm underqualified or too old to get in the "Seeking Entry Level Traders Looking to Make a Dumptruck Full of Money !!!" positions.
Refusing to give up on trading, I fell into one of the prop gigs that basically is "trade on X-Trader simulator and if you happen to have the gift for scalping you might just get a trading job that pays allright."
So, this is the end of my 3rd week in the simulator. However, due to holidays and other circumstances I have only managed to get 9 days logged in the trading room.
Of those 9, the previous 7 I have gotten absolutely killed in the markets. Yesterday, I came out negative but came back from -63 points to -13 points. Today I was up quite a bit, gave it back and then some and closed out completely breakeven.
*sigh* As I found out today, the problem is this:
One of the other guys who has been in the simulator with me has been bringing in a laptop that has IB charts installed, which we have been using. Yesterday(the day I started trading MUCH better), he installed a fancy tool that lets us view price and volume much better.
Our team had lunch today with the veteran trader who monitors us for any glimmer of hope. I learned today that a)real scalpers have a dedicated line to the markets and most likely computers executing their trades and b) the XTrader simulator interface is on a slight delay.
So. As I watched our fancy tool, I THOUGHT I was spotting good trading opportunities and was fast enough to beat the rush.
However, after lunch, I realized that what is 99% likely is that our IB machine with the live feed and fancy tools is getting its data about 1/2 second BEFORE the XTrader Simulator....I'm seeing what LOOKS like good trades, but if the market were live and real, the opportunities would be 2 ticks against me before I got in.
So my morale is in the dumpster right now.
Anyways, thats my report from the trading trenches. Not much else to say at the moment. Just wanted to share my experiences with the other aspiring traders out there.
-T
I have not posted to my journal in awhile. Just felt like checking in and recording some of my thoughts. My recent tales are a somewhat cautionary tale to anyone who wants to get involved in this business.
To sum up my trading experience to date. I dropped out of my day job to pursue trading full time in 2004, under the guise of going back for my masters. Having graduated in Dec '05, I began hitting the pavement for a trading gig. Unfortunately I am too under experienced to get a "experienced required" trading position, and depending on the firm underqualified or too old to get in the "Seeking Entry Level Traders Looking to Make a Dumptruck Full of Money !!!" positions.
Refusing to give up on trading, I fell into one of the prop gigs that basically is "trade on X-Trader simulator and if you happen to have the gift for scalping you might just get a trading job that pays allright."
So, this is the end of my 3rd week in the simulator. However, due to holidays and other circumstances I have only managed to get 9 days logged in the trading room.
Of those 9, the previous 7 I have gotten absolutely killed in the markets. Yesterday, I came out negative but came back from -63 points to -13 points. Today I was up quite a bit, gave it back and then some and closed out completely breakeven.
*sigh* As I found out today, the problem is this:
One of the other guys who has been in the simulator with me has been bringing in a laptop that has IB charts installed, which we have been using. Yesterday(the day I started trading MUCH better), he installed a fancy tool that lets us view price and volume much better.
Our team had lunch today with the veteran trader who monitors us for any glimmer of hope. I learned today that a)real scalpers have a dedicated line to the markets and most likely computers executing their trades and b) the XTrader simulator interface is on a slight delay.
So. As I watched our fancy tool, I THOUGHT I was spotting good trading opportunities and was fast enough to beat the rush.
However, after lunch, I realized that what is 99% likely is that our IB machine with the live feed and fancy tools is getting its data about 1/2 second BEFORE the XTrader Simulator....I'm seeing what LOOKS like good trades, but if the market were live and real, the opportunities would be 2 ticks against me before I got in.
So my morale is in the dumpster right now.
Anyways, thats my report from the trading trenches. Not much else to say at the moment. Just wanted to share my experiences with the other aspiring traders out there.
-T
!