Traders who win but really have no clear strategy

You can have a "clear" strategy(ies), but have it not necessarily etched in stone to where you have to trade every signal.

You have your setups, but you consider each in the context of the current market picture ... where are today's TL's, S/R confluence, what time is it when they're being hit?

The market is dynamic, not rigid. I believe trading methods should be as well.
 
FWIW, over the years I have been with traders who, if you saw them on the street, would think they couldn't tie their shoelaces. And, those same people make money consistently...sort of the "Rain Man" phenomena. Several are trading with us now.

At the same time, those who spend time developing strategies and techniques that "they" believe in can certainly do well.

I've found over the years (decades, geez, LOL).... that those who tend to "overthink" this whole thing have the most problems with success. I'm not shrink or anything, but since there are no real "absolutes" in trading, I think with proper (and basic) tools (market access, capital, etc.) a good attitude and a love for simplicity pays off in the long run.

Find out what works for you, enjoy what you do (I know, you've heard that line since birth)...but it has more meaning in this profession than in most, IMO.

Yesterday, I was sitting watching AMZN after the bell (earnings etc.)...the beat it down 4 bucks or so...so I bought some, just on instinct, made a quick dollar on it..... I would never "teach" or even suggest such a thing to my traders, but it just seemed right. Did the same thing on AAPL a couple days ago, actually made 2.24 in 30 seconds....reminded me of the old Nasdaq/SOES days of 1990's.

So, I like to think of it as "instinct with a plan" - and, yes, keep some discipline, know full well that that you are going to get beaten some times. I almost hate to get pocket ACES when playing Hold em', invariably I'll get beat by something stupid, LOL.

Anyway, don't overthing this whole thing...have some fun, make some money.

All the best,

Don
 
here' s a provocative fact:
99.99% of trading setups DON'T work!
Here' s why:

Forget all technical indicators - MA, MACD, RSI..etc etc.. or trendline setups

the market can ALWAYS get more oversold when you thought you' re buying at oversold, and if you happen to be a channel breakout buyer, well it can crush you and take out all your stops the next minute.

It CANNOT work, because a stock can ONLY go UP or DOWN, it' s like Roulette red/black with the ONLY advantage being that you don' t lose when the table hits 0 'cause that' s when the stock doesn' t move...

So no indicator in the world can predict the market. it all comes out to luck in the end if you use indicators:
you could have a "winning series" where your Elliott waves work perfectly, you make 50% in 3 months, and think you' re the King of the World..just to get cocky enough to languidly stumble into a dull range or even worse a "back to beginning" bear phase, where all your "dip-buying" eats your profits...


don' t we all know this? haven# t we all been there..?

so why do 99% of traders still look for the holy indicator grail..

forget it!

There are 2 things that could work:
One is PairsTrading done properly, the other GapsTrading(but not fading gaps and having stops destroy your risk/reward; google a system called “gapstrader”) . would appreciate qualified serious thoughts on the system
 
Quote from milimabuse:

here' s a provocative fact:
99.99% of trading setups DON'T work!
Here' s why:

Forget all technical indicators - MA, MACD, RSI..etc etc.. or trendline setups

the market can ALWAYS get more oversold when you thought you' re buying at oversold, and if you happen to be a channel breakout buyer, well it can crush you and take out all your stops the next minute.
More...

These things do work every single day, they just don't ALL work at the same time, taking each and every signal. But they do work, and the trick is to play the highest odds setups based on your market experience, and combine that with good money management (stops/targets/sizing).
 
Quote from tomahawk:

These things do work every single day, they just don't ALL work at the same time, taking each and every signal. But they do work, and the trick is to play the highest odds setups based on your market experience, and combine that with good money management (stops/targets/sizing).
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ay,there's the rub....

"highest odds setup based on your market experience"...

that is based on knowledge and feelings - however the market consists of numbers (and psychology of course), but in the end it's down to numbers.

So it has to be based on mathematical principles "applied" intelligently.

and there's only one that can apply: positive and negatives series, and Gauss reversion to the mean..

what other logical way could there be???
 
I have never had a trading plan though I do have rough sketch of a money management plan. I just feel more comfortable moving with the natural ebb and flow of the markets rather planning trades. The downside is monitoring a large amount of data so as to move with that ebb and flow in step.
 
Quote from milimabuse:

ay,there's the rub....

"highest odds setup based on your market experience"...

that is based on knowledge and feelings - however the market consists of numbers (and psychology of course), but in the end it's down to numbers.

So it has to be based on mathematical principles "applied" intelligently.

and there's only one that can apply: positive and negatives series, and Gauss reversion to the mean..

what other logical way could there be???
More...
Trade much do you.
 
Quote from usedtowork:

My definition of strategy is probably different from the OPs, in that I'm a purely discretionary trader who doesn't believe in anything but the most fundamental TA, but I have a trading plan in terms of what instruments I trade, when I trade them, position sizes, maximum losses etc.

I always look for momentum so this morning started by losing a bit of money on jobless claims at 8:30am when ES and ZF both went a bit sideways and stopped me out. I then scanned earnings from the previous close and the morning to prepare a watchlist of strong winners and losers (SNDK, T, EBAY, RS and 2 or 3 others) then waited until market open to see what direction the market was headed and to take the appropriate trade.

Unfortunately I made the right call on SNDK but happened to enter at exactly the wrong time and got stopped out before it headed south in earnest. However I saw the market was lifting strongly and jumped on T for a strong gain before I closed my position very quickly as it turned over on 10am's home sales data. I then held on until 10:30's natural gas inventories data, figuring anything short of a home run would send the contract lower due to the recent run-up, and sure enough I was rewarded with a quick profit although I decided to take profits very early into the first retracement, leaving a lot of money on the table.

At this point I normally keep an eye on my TradeTheNews headlines looking for intraday opportunities on takeover chatter and the like, but the NYSE/NASDAQ internals were so strong that I entered small positions on the ES and ZF and wished later I had gone all in on the ZF as it dropped like a rock until about 3pm. I slapped myself on the wrist as my plan doesn't normally playing "the market" (e.g. ES) intraday and I should have done so on paper before risking real money.

All in all I pumped up my trading account over 6% on the day which is about 10 times my daily goal, but of course earnings season is like shooting fish in a barrel for a momentum/news trader. I've been "winning" in that I've been able to increase my trading capital by a few percent per week average for about 6 months working at it full-time as a relative beginner, and after initial losses and rookie mistakes I've found the secret for me is a) having a plan and sticking to it including what instruments to trade, when to trade them, position sizes and most importantly stop losses, and b) a software platform that automatically sets stops for me when it enters orders, to prevent me from taking large "discretionary losses" (originally NinjaTrader but now ZeroLine Trader).

I don't know if this counts as having a strategy or not, but I'll stick with it until it stops working or I find something better!
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This could have been just me writing this story! Feels like some confrmation Im looking at the right things..

Ill bet you also play the chain store game; zoom in on retail reports for potential candidates to play on open etc. Do you?
Sometimes I think Im thinking going a bit to deep into detail but other times it gives me graet oppertuneties.

Not sure this fits this treath; perhaps make new one with trading ideas and stocks to play on the regular 0830, 1000 and 1030AM news stories. Zooming in on detail on the reports; stocks to play!? All Im looking for is some momentum just like you. Ive got my favorite stocks to play on ISM and ISM-non manufacturing as well.. Now do you?

Other suggegestions please add!
 
Ive been studying trading for months now using real time data as well. Making multi pecentage every day on paper for weeks now using tide stops, mostly play volatile times. Just bought the fastest quad core, four 26 inch screens and very hungry to eat a lot of money from the table..
Not quite sure the stops I use are realistic enough yet. Read some confusing stories. What stops do you use on open related to price? What order best used; do you just hit market orders?
Please let me know!
 
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