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Traders Need Only $8 to Buy Barrel of Oil: Massive Oil Supplies: 'Peak Oil' Is a Myth
- Thread starter ByLoSellHi
- Start date
Quote from Ivanovich:
And you're at the opposite end of the sillyness, BLSH.
Nigerians blowing up a pipeline is not a group of folks in flipflops throwing rocks.
I agree, there's lots of price speculation, but between folks like yourself and folks like Daal, is the truth.
I'm basing my statements on actual numbers, the kind extensively researched and cited by Michael Masters, whom the U.S. Senate deemed credible enough to rely upon when considering new legislative measures.
Daal seemingly bases his statements on some grand theory about shortages in the midst of building crude stocks.
Quote from ByLoSellHi:
I'm basing my statements on actual numbers, the kind extensively researched and cited by Michael Masters, whom the U.S. Senate deemed credible enough to rely upon when considering new legislative measures.
Daal seemingly bases his statements on some grand theory about shortages in the midst of building crude stocks.
so speculators are just driving oil prices? are the massive price spikes in every other commodity actual buying?
That article is more populist, anti-market B.S.
Also, they lost all credibility by completely screwing up the definition of peak oil.
Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum RATE of global petroleum production is reached, after which the rate of production enters its terminal decline.
So we're not talking the output of y, where y is the output of a production function, we're talking the derivative of a production function.
Take a basic microecon class and a calculus class.
I know traders for large energy companies. This rise is mainly because of a devalued dollar, and partly because of upward projections in future demand. Sorry, but oil is physically delivered at these prices. If demand wasn't there, it wouldn't be consumed. The speculator argument is complete B.S. A speculator can also bet against the rise in oil-hey, with all these brilliant articles, why aren't smart money taking long term bearish positions on oil?
These articles are written for the broke, common moron. The guy who doesn't understand markets, doesn't understand peak oil, and doesn't trade; rather, he is simply pissed at paying too much at the pump.
I'm bullish on more populist journalism, that appeals to the hearts of uneducated, angry mobs!
Also, they lost all credibility by completely screwing up the definition of peak oil.
Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum RATE of global petroleum production is reached, after which the rate of production enters its terminal decline.
So we're not talking the output of y, where y is the output of a production function, we're talking the derivative of a production function.
Take a basic microecon class and a calculus class.
I know traders for large energy companies. This rise is mainly because of a devalued dollar, and partly because of upward projections in future demand. Sorry, but oil is physically delivered at these prices. If demand wasn't there, it wouldn't be consumed. The speculator argument is complete B.S. A speculator can also bet against the rise in oil-hey, with all these brilliant articles, why aren't smart money taking long term bearish positions on oil?
These articles are written for the broke, common moron. The guy who doesn't understand markets, doesn't understand peak oil, and doesn't trade; rather, he is simply pissed at paying too much at the pump.
I'm bullish on more populist journalism, that appeals to the hearts of uneducated, angry mobs!
Finally, some sense. The world is awash in dollars, euros and yen looking for a home. Right now oil is one of those places.quote from wutanfinancial:
I know traders for large energy companies. This rise is mainly because of a devalued dollar, and partly because of upward projections in future demand. Sorry, but oil is physically delivered at these prices. If demand wasn't there, it wouldn't be consumed. The speculator argument is complete B.S. A speculator can also bet against the rise in oil-hey, with all these brilliant articles, why aren't smart money taking long term bearish positions on oil?
Quote from ByLoSellHi:
Daal seemingly bases his statements on some grand theory about shortages in the midst of building crude stocks.
well the EIA has shown demand bigger than supply since 2006, where the oil is coming from to make up for the deficit?your looking at US inventories only.
sometimes I wonder if you are some 19yo kid that decided to get attention on ET with bold statements
I want to be proven wrong on this, I dont waste my time on these oil threads, its not on my interest to keep holding equities that are in a bubble, I wanna see the irrefutable arguments against oil so I can get out before it all blows up, so far all I hear are baseless and bold arguments that are not grounded on anything that answers the question, how will we get the extra 37.5 mb/d that are needed by 2015 according to some estimates?
This author is known to be a little looney. I wouldn't take anything he says seriously.
"Shedding light on the 1970s oil shocks and the grand strategy of Washington after the end of the Cold War, Engdahl presents a convincing case that geopolitics and oil were behind the collapse of the Soviet Union, the breakup of Yugoslavia, and the rise and fall of the Taliban. He reveals evidence to show that the US and UK decision to go to war in Iraq was not simply an issue of corporate greed. It was a strategic move to control the world economy for the following half century or more."
http://www.energybulletin.net/34863.html
Aside from the above he once believed in peak oil then changed his mind.
Oil is worth the current price be it from speculation or demand. It's silly to try to rationalize what the market values something.
Steve Forbes still believes oil is only worth $35 a barrel. I also believe I can fly and I'm richer than Bill Gates. Life would be so grand if everything we believed would eventually turn into a reality.
"Shedding light on the 1970s oil shocks and the grand strategy of Washington after the end of the Cold War, Engdahl presents a convincing case that geopolitics and oil were behind the collapse of the Soviet Union, the breakup of Yugoslavia, and the rise and fall of the Taliban. He reveals evidence to show that the US and UK decision to go to war in Iraq was not simply an issue of corporate greed. It was a strategic move to control the world economy for the following half century or more."
http://www.energybulletin.net/34863.html
Aside from the above he once believed in peak oil then changed his mind.
Oil is worth the current price be it from speculation or demand. It's silly to try to rationalize what the market values something.
Steve Forbes still believes oil is only worth $35 a barrel. I also believe I can fly and I'm richer than Bill Gates. Life would be so grand if everything we believed would eventually turn into a reality.
Quote from ByLoSellHi:
I'm basing my statements on actual numbers, the kind extensively researched and cited by Michael Masters, whom the U.S. Senate deemed credible enough to rely upon when considering new legislative measures.
Daal seemingly bases his statements on some grand theory about shortages in the midst of building crude stocks.
be honest with us - did you like get caught massivly short on this, and now you're freaking out?
you've been spamming thread after thread on this
If you understand Hubbert's Peak Oil theory, and see how incredibly accurate it has been, you'll recognize that "mean reversion" is B.S. in this case.
This isn't stock, this isn't houses-this is a non renewable energy source.
Dollars can be devalued. Houses can be overbuilt. Oil can't suddenly start being produced at a faster rate. The oil wells in Saudi are brining up more and more water for every bucket of oil. That's an exogenously fixed variable. Even if they have a lot of inventory at the moment, who cares? In the long run, the rate of production is declining. And nothing can stop that. The production of oil isn't going to revert to it's historical average. And people just don't get that.
Oil is real. It isn't a financial derivative with a risk premium or a P/E ratio that reverts to some mean determined by an asset pricing model. Yes, fear and speculation impact the price of oil, but that makes sense-it takes into account the probability of future supply shocks.
Again, this author is a moron. He knows nothing about peak oil, and for him to say it's a hoax is ridiculous. Every institutional oil trader and every engineer I know understands peak oil.
Speculation increases volatility in oil. But speculation cannot lead to a boundless price increase in oil. There's no way for that level of collusion to occur in a zero sum game with millions of players.
Also, the last thing the oil industry wants is for the price of oil to increase to the point that other forms of energy become competitive. They want to milk every dollar from their reserves. They don't want a dead supply. They have made too many long term, structural investments to want oil to become obsolete, even if they get to command higher prices in the short term.
This isn't stock, this isn't houses-this is a non renewable energy source.
Dollars can be devalued. Houses can be overbuilt. Oil can't suddenly start being produced at a faster rate. The oil wells in Saudi are brining up more and more water for every bucket of oil. That's an exogenously fixed variable. Even if they have a lot of inventory at the moment, who cares? In the long run, the rate of production is declining. And nothing can stop that. The production of oil isn't going to revert to it's historical average. And people just don't get that.
Oil is real. It isn't a financial derivative with a risk premium or a P/E ratio that reverts to some mean determined by an asset pricing model. Yes, fear and speculation impact the price of oil, but that makes sense-it takes into account the probability of future supply shocks.
Again, this author is a moron. He knows nothing about peak oil, and for him to say it's a hoax is ridiculous. Every institutional oil trader and every engineer I know understands peak oil.
Speculation increases volatility in oil. But speculation cannot lead to a boundless price increase in oil. There's no way for that level of collusion to occur in a zero sum game with millions of players.
Also, the last thing the oil industry wants is for the price of oil to increase to the point that other forms of energy become competitive. They want to milk every dollar from their reserves. They don't want a dead supply. They have made too many long term, structural investments to want oil to become obsolete, even if they get to command higher prices in the short term.