Traders' Commitments (from Barron's)...
- Thread starter GreenDog
- Start date
Thanks for that report. I will take the Specs and Commercial. I was following that number previously and think, on balance the big boys get their way. But, good to know that a huge squeeze could also come from that large short number. Maybe above 950? Lets see. Bling
But also note that 3/28/03 was the first time since the year 2000 that the Commercials in the large S&P contract were net long. And they have stayed that way for the last 6 reports.
Anyone have any insights into why the Commercials in the large contract and those in the e-mini are leaning so differently?
Anyone have any insights into why the Commercials in the large contract and those in the e-mini are leaning so differently?
Since the commercials are net long the large contract, and net short the mini, something is going on. Perhaps they are using the emini to hedge, or there may be some option plays in effect.
I have found that it is dangerous to look at the COT unless you track it for a long time and find a correlation that works consistently.
Simply having a market bias, and then looking at one contract of the COT can be very dangerous.
However, I would tend to bet against the small speculators, as they are the most consistently wrong.
Large speculators are a much better bet.
Remember, commercials use the futures to hedge actuals.
I believe that the emini is used to hedge. You can also get the COT report every Friday afternoon at:
http://www.cftc.gov/cftc/cftchome.htm
Click on "Current COT Reports". What is important is to look at the net, long minus short, and compare to historical average, and how the net changes from week to week.
Charles
http://www.cftc.gov/cftc/cftchome.htm
Click on "Current COT Reports". What is important is to look at the net, long minus short, and compare to historical average, and how the net changes from week to week.
Charles