Traders Cant Beat The Market

[Lohnsklave]

Quote from vhehn:

i do agree with him that most people should invest in index funds through etfs like spy dia ect.

I do agree with him, too but the conclusion that one should invest in index funds (to ensure your pension) is wrong:
The population of the industrialized part of the world is aging. If everybody buys stock to pay the pension to whom will he sell? Younger people who intend to do the same. What happens if there are less younger people who want to buy than those older ones who want to sell?
If you're buying index funds you only make sure that you get the avererage of all who invest in the stock markets. But if the return of this isn't sufficient to make a living when you're old that's bad news.

 

[maxpi]

Quote from Lohnsklave:



I do agree with him, too but the conclusion that one should invest in index funds (to ensure your pension) is wrong:
The population of the industrialized part of the world is aging. If everybody buys stock to pay the pension to whom will he sell? Younger people who intend to do the same. What happens if there are less younger people who want to buy than those older ones who want to sell?
If you're buying index funds you only make sure that you get the avererage of all who invest in the stock markets. But if the return of this isn't sufficient to make a living when you're old that's bad news.

Deflation is built into the baby boom retirement, little doubt about that.

 

[maxpi]

The author of the article says the market is a zero sum game. I can't see that even from his perspective. If everybody that invests in an index fund makes 10% per annum and gets more out than he puts in then it is not zero sum.

 

[damir00]

you can't get your 10% out without someone else putting the same amount in.

Quote from maxpi:

The author of the article says the market is a zero sum game. I can't see that even from his perspective. If everybody that invests in an index fund makes 10% per annum and gets more out than he puts in then it is not zero sum.

 

[Walther]

Quote from axeman:

This is basically the conclusion I came to for the average investor.
If your not willing to put the countless hours of time in to
develop a robust trading plan, just by SPY every month.

Avoid all the mutual fund BS, etc....

SPY all the way. Buy and forget.


I
peace

axeman

Do you feel confident to buy and forget right now, or you have meant cost averaging buy every month ?
Walter

 

[axeman]

Monthly dollar cost averaging.

But it would still be very hard for me to start now though, knowing
just a bit about the markets.

In general, however, I think this is the best joe investor can do.



peace

axeman

Quote from Walther:



Do you feel confident to buy and forget right now, or you have meant cost averaging buy every month ?
Walter

 

[maxpi]

Quote from damir00:

you can't get your 10% out without someone else putting the same amount in.

That's silly. If the issue prices all rise then everybody in an index fund gets more money out. That is what the author is saying.

If all the stock prices doubled overnight then everybody got more wealth. It's not even a zero sum game. Options maybe.

 

[damir00]

and how do you think prices rises? by somebody else putting more money in.

at the end of the road the *only* way you'll get more out (in real terms) t is if more money than you want to take out was put in by somebody else.

Quote from maxpi:



That's silly. If the issue prices all rise then everybody in an index fund gets more money out. That is what the author is saying.

If all the stock prices doubled overnight then everybody got more wealth. It's not even a zero sum game. Options maybe.

 

[Free Thinker]

Quote from damir00:

and how do you think prices rises? by somebody else putting more money in.

at the end of the road the *only* way you'll get more out (in real terms) t is if more money than you want to take out was put in by somebody else.

not true at all.if a company comes up with a cancer cure it will double overnight without any extra money being added.

 

[taodr]

Someone has to buy the shares to make it double.