Trader Vic:Hyperinflation is definitely coming

Quote from Maverick1:

In one of his recent speeches he mentioned he's long gold from $400 and also at mid teens. Maybe he's half right and half wrong as of today?

We're in the mother of all reflexive trends... Cheap credit has been its fuel, reinforcing the notion that we can get away with an ever increasing debt burden. At some point, some event will seriously break that bias. I think it's already been tested once in the response to the 2008 financial crisis, so we're more than likely now at the peak in bond prices. Any delay in tapering will only get us faster to the breaking point at which our interest cover ratio craters. I'm thinking $1,100 or even a dip below $1,000 is a key level to watch in gold. If Paulson cries uncle around there, that'd probably be a good entry point to test Vic's thesis in the near term.

What say you?
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Yeah, sure, and so am I.

I've got some UBS bars and Eagles in a safe from the $400-$450 level, and what does that have to do with this abysmal call?

The guy is a trader, wtf does he know about macro? I am not generally a fan of the Phillips curve, but it's been uncannily accurate.
 
Quote from Maverick1:

In one of his recent speeches he mentioned he's long gold from $400 and also at mid teens. Maybe he's half right and half wrong as of today?
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No - he's long gold from the current tick, and has been long from 1950 to 1235, a catastrophic drawdown. There is no such thing as being long from your entry price, all tradable assets are mark to market.

Anyway this was about a call not a trade. His call has been flat out wrong, it stank up the joint, it was hopeless. Time to admit it and move on.
 
Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

No - he's long gold from the current tick, and has been long from 1950 to 1235, a catastrophic drawdown. There is no such thing as being long from your entry price, all tradable assets are mark to market.

Anyway this was about a call not a trade. His call has been flat out wrong, it stank up the joint, it was hopeless. Time to admit it and move on.
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CNBC aired the interview on July 19, 2010. Gold closed around 1,182 then and went on to a high of 1,900 in early Sep of 2011. Today, in Dec 2013, it's down to 1,235. M-T-M notwithstanding, any intelligent trader acting upon the idea that we are headed for a fiscal collapse could have profited handsomely from the move. If the trader was in a buy and hold mode, he'd still be up today from the interview date. Prices don't rise in a straight vertical line... Granted if you buy Vic's thesis but don't have the common sense to resist the urge to buy new highs, you're in trouble. But why pretend as if that's the only possible way to express the view?

Re the call, you simply beg the question. Vic called and presumably is still calling for hyperinflation deriving from fiscal collapse. Given the variables he has identified as the key characteristics of the lead in to fiscal collapse, is 3 years the right timeframe to assess the call?
 
Quote from Maverick1:

CNBC aired the interview on July 19, 2010. Gold closed around 1,182 then and went on to a high of 1,900 in early Sep of 2011. Today, in Dec 2013, it's down to 1,235. M-T-M notwithstanding, any intelligent trader acting upon the idea that we are headed for a fiscal collapse could have profited handsomely from the move. If the trader was in a buy and hold mode, he'd still be up today from the interview date. Prices don't rise in a straight vertical line... Granted if you buy Vic's thesis but don't have the common sense to resist the urge to buy new highs, you're in trouble. But why pretend as if that's the only possible way to express the view?

Re the call, you simply beg the question. Vic called and presumably is still calling for hyperinflation deriving from fiscal collapse. Given the variables he has identified as the key characteristics of the lead in to fiscal collapse, is 3 years the right timeframe to assess the call?
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Well - under what conditions would you accept that Sperandeo's call is wrong? No hyperinflation by 2015, 2020? Any time in the next 100 years? Remember he said the conditions were in place, back in 2010.

There has been no evidence so far of hyperinflation in the USA. If I made an economic prediction and said something was definite, and then 3 1/2 years later there was not a shred of evidence for it coming true, I'd accept my prediction was a bust. The only exception would be if I had set a specifically longer timeframe. But the longer the timeframe, the less actionable and falsifiable the call. At some point it enters the real of soothsaying and ceases to be of value to anyone.

In trading 3 years is an eternity. Better to just accept the hyperinflation scenario was a bum call, just like it was in the 1930s when half the right-wing were inflation alarmists too.
 
Quote from MohdSalleh:

"Trader Vic" Sperandeo is on CNBC describing the historical pattern for the onset of hyperinflation, and says the conditions for such a runaway inflation are now here in the US.

He traded for George Soros and Leon Copperman during his 40 years in business and his Trader Vic books are the stuff of legend.

Victor Sperandeo has seen almost every kind of market, but he’s now preparing for something rarely seen.

He's preparing for hyper-inflation.

Video link......

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38313367/Position_for_Rare_Market_Catalyst_Says_Trader_Vic
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It would help if the author didn't mangle the spelling of "Cooperman"

I avoided watching it until now, but his "100% correlation" failed. He specifically mentions the 30Y Treasury and implies shorting. This call was laughably bad.

"When does a bond buyer say... I don't want to loan money to the Govt"

"You obviously buy precious metals, but only a little bit, you don't need much." The ONLY reference to gold and made in the last 10 seconds of the video.
 
-Michael Pento, founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies: 'Disappointingly, it is much more probable that the government has brought us out of the Great Recession, only to set us up for the Greater Depression, which lies just on the other side of interest rate normalization.'

-Boston University Economics Professor Laurence Kotlikoff: 'Eventually somebody recognizes this and starts dumping the bonds, and interest rates go up, and inflation takes off, and were off to the races.'

-Mexican Billionaire Hugo Salinas Price: 'I think we are going to see a series of bankruptcies. I think the rise in interest rates is the fatal sign which is going to ignite a derivatives crisis. This is going to bring down the derivatives system (and the financial system).

There are (over) one quadrillion dollars of derivatives and most of them are related to interest rates. The spiking of interest rates in the United States may set that off. What is going to happen in the world is eventually we are going to come to a moment where there is going to be massive bankruptcies around the globe.'
 
Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

Well - under what conditions would you accept that Sperandeo's call is wrong? No hyperinflation by 2015, 2020? Any time in the next 100 years? Remember he said the conditions were in place, back in 2010.

There has been no evidence so far of hyperinflation in the USA. If I made an economic prediction and said something was definite, and then 3 1/2 years later there was not a shred of evidence for it coming true, I'd accept my prediction was a bust. The only exception would be if I had set a specifically longer timeframe. But the longer the timeframe, the less actionable and falsifiable the call. At some point it enters the real of soothsaying and ceases to be of value to anyone.

In trading 3 years is an eternity. Better to just accept the hyperinflation scenario was a bum call, just like it was in the 1930s when half the right-wing were inflation alarmists too.
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Well what is your call?
 
Nope, No Bubbles Anywhere?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-13/nope-no-bubbles-anywhere

image-575683-galleryV9-xyht.jpg
 
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