Trader P/L 2012

Quote from njrookie1:

In my view anytime you are using historical data - price or volume - to make trading decisions, you are doing technical analysis. Call it whatever you like, price action (support, resistance), indicators (SMA, EMA, MACD), or time series analysis (AR, ARMA, GARCH, COINTEGRATION), etc.

In short term, price and volume dominate fundamental or macro information and behave like a sufficient statistics for decision making:

1. I do not know what is the outcome of the news;
2. I do not know how market as a whole will react to the news even if I know what the outcome is;
3. Price does lie. It tells you what is the dominant force at the moment. You do not trade the news. You trade other market participants.

Just my 2c.
njrookie
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very well said and it displays a higher order understanding of the multiple ways to make money. I have always believed that quant analysis is just an advanced form of technical analysis.
 
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness

Have a good 4th

Wrapping it up to go enjoy the rest of the day

Traded 6e cl

+8,250
 

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first half 2012

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Quote from sellindexvol66:

first half 2012

pl7-2-20123-27-00PM.jpg
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You seem legit. :-)

I'm rebate trading trash, personally; in my world, a 9% drawdown would cause a lot of stress and cause me to lose sleep. But in the big picture sense, that's actually not too bad. I took a 10% drawdown when my strategies first started because of just outright broker fees and technical glitches.

Are you automated or manual?
 
at a calmars ratio of 50, sellingindexvol66 can make back the 11% DD in a week or two. note the YTD return is already approaching 100%.

it comes down to comfort level, which comes with experience/confidence. an experienced trader can lengthen the holding period a bit to enhance return and capacity. it comes with a bit more short-term MTM account equity curve volatility probably. but over long run it brings more money.

one needs tons of experience to have this level of confidence/comfort though. i am not even remotely close. while my sharpe is in similar range, my horizon is shorter and my short term volatility is lower. but by the end of the month/year, i make less money.

njrookie
 
Quote from njrookie1:

at a calmars ratio of 50, sellingindexvol66 can make back the 10% DD in a week. note the YTD is already approaching 100%.
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Yeah, his results are nothing to sneeze at. I wouldn't feel bad with those results. :D

A read a lot of trader journals on this site, and while some guys really have some interesting/decent edges, the part that I dislike about most retail traders and the trading blogs is how these guys are okay with so much volatility in their equity curve. I'm not talking 1-off 3-4 sigma events, either.

Portfolio-level equity curve smoothness is almost the first thing I always go after, because outside of that smooth equity curve regime, I think it's very "psychologically difficult" -- if you get what I mean.
 
Quote from njrookie1:

at a calmars ratio of 50, sellingindexvol66 can make back the 11% DD in a week or two. note the YTD return is already approaching 100%.

it comes down to comfort level, which comes with experience/confidence. an experienced trader can lengthen the holding period a bit to enhance return and capacity. it comes with a bit more short-term MTM account equity curve volatility probably. but over long run it brings more money.

one needs tons of experience to have this level of confidence/comfort though. i am not even remotely close. while my sharpe is in similar range, my horizon is shorter and my short term volatility is lower. but by the end of the month/year, i make less money.

njrookie
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you guys are just as good..it is great to see other traders and not a bunch of hot air bullshit like elsewhere. plus i have been in this game for near 20 yrs.

i habitually wire money out monthly..just keep enough in needed for my targets if i am lucky enough to bang them.

EDIT:

clear, i am full manual and old skool
 
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