Trader Girl Forex Trades

Quote from TraderZones:

Fibonacci trading doesn't work. Fib levels are not more significant than any other level. Studies such as the following:
As I said before, if you don't like Fibs then don't use them. I make money with them, a LOT of money. So that's why I disagree. I'm sorry you weren't able to figure out a way to make money with them.
 
Quote from richardm:

the tradeguider VSA program is just way too pricey for me - - any candlestick identifying program (Amibroker) could be modified to make tradeguider-like notation if you invested the time and energy
TopGun only provides basic access to the indicators, etc. through scripting, so I will probably postpone investing in it for now.

If you know anybody with trade guider its very easy to come up with the rules they use for their signals. I did it in trade station many years ago in 15 mins.

They look at the range of the bar (they call that spread) and use a moving average of volume and possibly a keltner/bollinger band around the avg to see VERY HIGH volume levels.

The thing I don't like is that once they think they have a signal it doesn't show up, it only does if for example there is a sell signal and then next bar closes down. Then they'll put a sell signal above the bar before!

That's rediculous.

As for TopGun, I get their trend tools real value in the scripts, same values as on the charts and I use this for my trend systems. It's a LOT harder coding up full auto systems than trading live as there are a TON of rules to teach the computer to avoid dumb trades an experienced trader would never take. I have profitable systems but the win % is far lower than I can manually trade. Still working on them but when done I'll be hooking it up to my swiss broker and letting it run. That's my goal. I just want 30 pips per day on average.
 
Quote from JB3:

I draw my own lines based on previous price action, six sigma statistics, and momentum using my own methods and it has nothing to do with fibs, and many of those lines coincide with fib lines. It's like magic, I don't know why either, but perhaps human behavior has a preset limit on greed and fear...and that manifests itself to these levels.

This is a very EXCELLENT comment and I agree 100%. Some of my own exhaustion tools tend to also show up right at Fib levels.

I personally find fib target levels 75% profitable in taking counter trend trades WHEN the trendlines are broken. Yes they don't always work but the KEY is to wait for the trends momentum to fail at these levels and then pounce. Some people may not have any patience and take every trade they see at EVERY fib level and thus thats why they can't make money with them.
 
Quote from Marsupilami:

Do you mean "Market Delta" ? I believe this concept only works with futures/stocks...products for which volume is available.

Regarding Trade Guider, I wouldn't call the program a scam. VSA itself requires some bars for confirmation, depending on the setup, so the software in that respect isn't worse than the methodology its is based on.

However, it is foolish to think that sth. like VSA can be put into code like a MACD or stochastics since it is a discretionary method. Therefore, the software is just not necessary as it is still the trader in the end who has to judge the market and apply the right VSA setups to the right scenario.

Yes I did mean Market Delta. I used that tool when I traded S&P and Russell futures and loved it. They use trades on the ask as buying and bid as selling and it was like tape reading. For futures trading I highly recommend that software. I haven't used it in maybe 3 years but I'm sure its even better now as they seemed to work hard at upgrading it and improving stability.

I see your point about VSA and I guess my comments were too harsh. I read the VSA book they provide and it makes sense and the logic behind it sounds reasonable. I just don't like software that plots buy/sell signals after the fact.

I never bought Forex made easy but know people who have and I've watched it on my computer in real time. It would often make a cross to buy and then a second to 20 seconds later the cross would go away and thus you have a losing trade. But when they showed the software at their shows there were almost always winning trades as the losers were not there AFTER THE FACT. I guess that experience and I think we all agree that Forex Made Easy is a total scam scarred me towards ALL companies that show signals late or remove them after the fact when they don't work.

If people are making money with VSA then more power to them. But I believe they are now marketing it to Forex traders and they know the volume in Forex is simply the bid changes by the banks that makeup the feed and not real volume. Big bars always have high volume and tiny spread bars have low volume, its the nature of this so called volume and thus worthless. The fact that they try to sell their volume methods to the public that trusts them and doesn't know how useless Forex 'volume' is makes me very leery about them. I find that act deceptive and was the cause of my use of the word 'scam'. Sorry if I offended anybody but I think like all long time traders I call them like I see them and have little time for the so many hucksters in this business.
 
thanks for the time to reply. But please dont bs me or the rest. Nobody in large financial institutions, especially not on trading desks, signs any confidentiality agreements in regards to how they trade, I have never in 10 years trading, at least never in any larger investment banks I worked at.

Lets rest this fib discussion, I am happy it works for you, I actually use correlation and rel currency strength vs cross basket (I think something similar than what you use) and it really works well for me. I trade hourly time frames, nothing shorter, I consider anything shorter noise.


Quote from amytrade:

Well if people use or don't use Fibs I don't care. There are soo many examples of them in action I could spend 24 hours a day for 15 years compiling them all.

But here's a nice one. AUDJPY. Notice the market finds support and bounces (30-130 pips) off of EACH AND EVERY level. I typically buy the 50% and 62% fib and avoid the 38% unless the trend strengh was extreme and previous swing made a higher high.

Yes I'm a short term trader and maybe some don't use these for longer term trades longer than 30 minutes to 4-8 hours but on MY TIME FRAME there is no denying they work and make money day after day.

I'm done with this fib's don't work argument. Don't use them. I am not going to break confidences I have with some friends at banks because they all signed confidentiality / non disclosure agreements on the systems and methods they use. You should know that if you have friends in the business. I would never break there confidences to prove a point I could care less if you agree with me or not in the first place!

Don't use fibs! Perfectly ok with me. :-)
 
Quote from IluvVol:

thanks for the time to reply. But please dont bs me or the rest. Nobody in large financial institutions, especially not on trading desks, signs any confidentiality agreements in regards to how they trade, I have never in 10 years trading, at least never in any larger investment banks I worked at.

Lets rest this fib discussion, I am happy it works for you, I actually use correlation and rel currency strength vs cross basket (I think something similar than what you use) and it really works well for me. I trade hourly time frames, nothing shorter, I consider anything shorter noise.

Yep happy to rest it. I mainly use 2 min charts and 50 tick charts for my entry with 2 min data for chandelier trailing stops. So we couldn't possibly trade differently. I've never liked longer term trading and probably would be horrible at it.

I also for the sake of honesty in real time use the fib TARGETS and not so much the fib retracements. The trends I try to catch are so strong they do NOT pull back even 38% but they often DO stop at fib targets where I jump off the trend train and often do counter trend trades with high accuracy.
 

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Quote from amytrade:

As I said before, if you don't like Fibs then don't use them. I make money with them, a LOT of money. So that's why I disagree. I'm sorry you weren't able to figure out a way to make money with them.

No, you don't make money with them. You only make money by picking levels, when random ones would have the same effect. That is the point of this and other conclusive studies that Fib levels mean absolutely nothing. 61.2 is no different than 57 or 68.

You are incapable of realizing the difference.
 
Quote from TraderZones:

No, you don't make money with them. You only make money by picking levels, when random ones would have the same effect. That is the point of this and other conclusive studies that Fib levels mean absolutely nothing. 61.2 is no different than 57 or 68.

You are incapable of realizing the difference.

You seem to have pretty strong feelings about fibs.
May I ask, do you, (traderzone) use any technical analysis in your trading?
 
Quote from TraderZones:

No, you don't make money with them. You only make money by picking levels, when random ones would have the same effect. That is the point of this and other conclusive studies that Fib levels mean absolutely nothing. 61.2 is no different than 57 or 68.

You are incapable of realizing the difference.

No I can understand that YOU do not make money with them. I don't know what it is about the male ego and the fact that a woman has figured them out and you haven't and it really pisses you off. You can cite a million other dumb asses who don't think they work and you will NEVER convince me.

When areas where there are NO OTHER support/resistance get hit and market reverses to the pip or within 5 pips and you see this THOUSANDS of time in all markets you have EVER traded you tend to BELIEVE in them and use them.

Again I could care less if you don't use them. If you make money with other methods thats great. Rarely a day goes by that I don't make money with the Fibs. I really feel sorry that you can't grasp how to use this tool but your loss, not mine.
 
Currencies to buy
EUR/CAD Buy 1.6413 to 1.6379
NZD/USD Buy .5066 to .5050
EUR/USD Buy 1.2750
GBP/CAD Buy 1.7700 to 1.7670
AUD/USD Buy .6450 to .7442
EUR/GBP Buy .9208 to .9185
USD/CAD Buy 1.2730
NZD/JPY Buy breakout of 49.91
GBP/USD Buy 1.3756 to 1.3750

Currencies to sell
USD/CHF Sell 1.1618
EUR/JPY Sell 125.75 to 126.08
AUD/JPY Carefully Sell 63.86
GBP/JPY Sell 137.00 to 137.10
USD/JPY Sell 98.00
CAD/JPY Sell 76.24 to 76.50
 
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