traded my first kalshi.com digital

[destriero]

Works well. The flow to cover the digital was not hugely obvious to me. Here's my closed SPX weekly binary.

 

[Kalshi]

I didn't love Kalshi's range bets. I prefer the simpler yes/no stuff from CME event contracts.

Hey! We're working on adding over/under yes/no markets, but till then you can get a similar structure on our markets if you buy multiple buckets. For example if you want to get a position of >4100, you can buy yes on 4100-4149.99, 4150-4199.99 and so on. If you're right on >4100 one of these will pay out. Summing the costs of all the buckets will be around the price of a >4100 market anyway, so the structure is almost the same (otherwise there'd be arbitrage for people to profit from!)

 

[destriero]

When it comes to betting the house always wins.
The odds of the broker winning your money are greater than the odds of you winning the broker's money.

The analog in listed exchanges with the concern about PFOF. I don't GAF if Consolidated or CIG is buying my order. Does it change the outcome of of limit buy on the COB?


No.

 

[destriero]

I didn't love Kalshi's range bets. I prefer the simpler yes/no stuff from CME event contracts.

Got to price modality as well. Say you're bearish in the annual 4700 to 4899 contract. Mkt dot shots and closes above 4900. Bet still wins. Digitals are a synthetic strip of vanilla verts, anyway.

 

[Kalshi]

Wow, no. I had no idea what I was holding and what was in cash. The refresh takes forever (gigabit+ connection).

Implement a portfolio page x product with a ladder/pricer. There is no way I can work with this interface. I can't imagine the stress with real size on the line.

Hey destriero, so sorry about your experience. I'd be happy to give you a walkthrough and get any feedback related to the UI, we're constantly improving the interface and can make adjustments in a few of days.

We do have a orderbook that you can acess through the market page if you click on the market itself (i.e. if you click on the "Above 5.00%" line in the Fed market - I was going to attach a picture here but I haven't figured out how to do that yet). You're able to see the amount of orders at each price, and you can customize it to your preference, what you're most used to is probably the maker view.

 

[destriero]

I deleted my last bc I had been on the orderbook. Priced at 86 to close and then it ostensibly prices at a penny as I click? C'mon.

SPX digital went well. 70 to 88, closed early.

Was up on a EURUSD bear binary range. Went to cover and was hitting the bid on the full position at 86 IIRC. As I hit the bid it went to a penny. lol, I filled at a penny. The digital is at 97 now.

I've traded digitals, touches, lookbacks, KOs/KIs. Professionally and as retail. I personally caused Trinitas Capital to close it's retail offering (DNT mispricing) and was responsible for Oanda shuttering their Box Options (search ET) as they were pricing their touches as digitals (fwd start).

I'm just not interested. At all.

 

[destriero]

Perhaps I refreshed it bc the site was locked. 0.86 to 0.01 as spot drops a pip? This is ridiculous. You want to know where it is now? No action at 0.99. Priced to full payout. Yes, the contract filled at a penny and it's 0.99 no mkt.

Zero liquidity. I am not even certain my limit didn't go to cabinet as I clicked. Actually I am certain of what I saw (0.86) but that's not where it filed.

If I'd been able to use a CC I'd initiate a chargeback. You can have my deets if you want to investigate. LMK when I can withdraw, thanks.

 

[destriero]

You need to offer a brake if the order book goes to sht. I'd be livid if this had happened with significant cash. Your back end needs to be an algo-MMer of last resort. Say a bid 30% under best.

 

[Kalshi]

Perhaps I refreshed it bc the site was locked. 0.86 to 0.01 as spot drops a pip? This is ridiculous. You want to know where it is now? No action at 0.99. Priced to full payout. Yes, the contract filled at a penny and it's 0.99 no mkt.

Zero liquidity. I am not even certain my limit didn't go to cabinet as I clicked. Actually I am certain of what I saw (0.86) but that's not where it filed.

If I'd been able to use a CC I'd initiate a chargeback. You can have my deets if you want to investigate. LMK when I can withdraw, thanks.

I'll reimburse you for the loss right now while I look more at it, it does seem like there wasn't liquidity in this market. I just need the email you used to sign up and then you should have the money back in a couple of minutes. For withdrawing you can withdraw 7 days after your deposit lands, and there's a $2 flat fee per withdrawal, but I'll add $2 on your reimbursement so that you won't have to pay that fee.

Our forex binary is a newer market and the liquidity isn't great, we're working on bringing in market makers to improve it. The stock markets, fed, and inflation have way more liquidity and I'm confident you won't encounter issues like this in those markets.

 

[destriero]

I don't mean to dump on a start-up, but I know what I saw when I hit the bid. Unacceptable on sim, let alone production. I will reply with email in PM. Zero liq in EURUSD?

Good luck.