Question what will be needed after we pull through this? Business that survives will eventually come back to a quasi-norm. But which sectors will lead the recovery?
Trade tip for my Politico Bros
- Thread starter El OchoCinco
- Start date
Well this will be treated like any recession I ithnk....Consumer Staples have held up pretty well for the most part. With rate cuts I expect financials to do well because they can borrow at 0% and lend out at 3-4%. Energy sector will recover strong once oil demand picks up but with transportation shutdown all over the globe this will take longer. But imagine May 1st all airlines go back to normal and we all start driving again.
While earnings of airlines will not come back right away, demand for oil will go back to pre Corona levels as long as they are not sitting on millions of barrels of supply like dumbfuck Saudi Arabia.
There are a few industries that will not feel the burn of these events. Diversified oil companies (Exxon, Shell) solid banks with investment banking arms and good loan practices (BoA, Capital One), technology companies focused on communications as people learned the benefits of teleworking and may spend millions each on updating their systems (CSCO others in that area), Consumer discretionaries with a target of after Christmas for holding,
DISNEY is a favorite of mine to recover well into 2021 and is trading at a discount to projected earnings which are still fuzzy.
Just random ideas for long term trades. I think OIL will be the key sector to rebound the best given how it is manipulated and that it is not earnings based, it is demand based and if we can contain this into May the rest of the world will still need oil to serve summer months.
I expect a lot of tourist/retail/restaurants will suffer the most and that is a gamble.
Dow 18225 +\- ?? support.
This FLY is at about $1.35 or so even though the market is outside the profit zone.....main reason is vols for these options are now 50%.
240-250-260 FLY and market is at 225, outside the range.
Vols for these options were almost 70% when I entered the trade.
Great VOL demonstration of FLYS and how sometimes you can profit mainly from VOL decrease if you get in with a high vol and market is still within reach.
Last edited:
Long a bunch of GLD today, between the stimulus, and the FED 4 trillion dollars just went up in smoke in one day, the signal is pretty clear here, destroy the currency to keep the illusion of permanent growth going at all costs. GLD sold off at first in the last couple weeks, with the volatility people just wanted out, but the writing is on the wall now, 1.8 trillion dollar deficits in 2011 are going to be a joke when we are done here.
Last edited:
Some outright plays on VOL could be using VIX options or VX futures but unless you are familiar with them it can be tricky.
Another asset is SVXY ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures.
AN ETF you can buy or go long with options
UVXY is the best way to short Volatility because it perpetually bleeds, but you missed that move already.
I am looking at OTM calendars on SVXY using 40 or 50 strike and rolling each month since vols are making front month options pricey...
it's coming in the form of a $2 trillion full blown socialist package, go praise the lord now.