Trade tip for my Politico Bros

Arnie said:
85, thanks for that OILU tip, LOL
I was looking at my account the other day going "wtf, I know I bought some. Wth is it"
Scary that those things can go to 0.
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Yeah I am glad I treated it like a lottery ticket so was a small piece of money I gave away free to the market :).

It was holding on until the front month dropped so far so fast and they closed the fund. If it could have just held on another week or two look where we are now... oh well.
 
Oil hitting $26.....is it getting ahead of itself?

What happens in June when most global eeconomies are in varying phases of opening...

We might not get the second leg lower I was predicting and just float sideways through a slow June/July
 
SO I hedged with some b earish positions using May options and the downward move took some time to start thanks to FED intervention

I am creating gunpowder in the account to start adding more positions when ES finds that 2400-2600 range...


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Ok so still not sure what the market will do, whether make that sell off leg again or just form its base here. today was quite a reversal of buying after morning sell off.

One thing is clear is oil has found its legs despite what is going on and all we need is demand to kick in to rocket this past $30. Oil related and energy related stocks are leading the DOW/S&P as well as tech stocks focused on connections and meetings (but those stocks are already too high to leg into positions).

I am not adding anymore to my oil portfolio as I do not want to lift my cost basis if we already put in the lows. I do know that by the FALL I expect to see a $35-$40/barrell floor if we can get going over the summer. Still plenty of uncertainty to allow for more entries if oil stutters but $30 is the next magic level as I called $20 level a scary level that no one wants to see it under and it was pushed back above it.


/CL
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El OchoCinco said:
If you are willing to handle a little heat a really good trade is to short the Mexican Peso here:

View attachment 223948

Going to look into accumulating a position as the Peso has lived for a long time in the 17 - 19 range and shot up when the dollar began to rocket off.
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Where my Mexican Peso shorters at? Looking for 20 within next 3 months. I went short the MXN peso with /6m futures and when June expiration approaches will roll them out and stay short until we see 20 minimum but expecting us to be closer to 18 in the Fall/Winter.

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El OchoCinco said:
Where my Mexican Peso shorters at? Looking for 20 within next 3 months. I went short the MXN peso with /6m futures and when June expiration approaches will roll them out and stay short until we see 20 minimum but expecting us to be closer to 18 in the Fall/Winter.

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You mean you're going short the dollar/long pesos right? Less pesos per dollar means dollar's weakening against it.
 
Here4money said:
You mean you're going short the dollar/long pesos right? Less pesos per dollar means dollar's weakening against it.
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Yes. Usually it is 18-20 Pesos per Dollar, or $1 dollar gets you 18-20.

So the dollar strengthened rapidly and Peso weakened so that $1 gets you 24-25.
This is really out of whack and I felt woudl return to the mean once things settled down. I do not have a FOREX account so I instead used /6M futures but they are MX Peso per US$ instead so I went long those futures which is the same as shorting the Dollar/long the peso.

So yes I shorted the dollar against the Peso. sorry if any previous posts got that wrong.
 
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