Trade this Chart

[kernan]

Quote from kernan:

Looking left to right, you have a low 10 bars into the chart, and a subsequent high 13 bars later. The action of the last 9 bars shows a bounce off of the (~) 61.8% Fib Retracement of that low to high.

I would draw a trendline from the high through the top of the white candle yesterday. A break of that trendline would be a signal to go long with a first target being the recent high. I would watch the action around that high for a continuation move to the 38.2% extension.

And, I also would short the break of the inside range bar to the downside!!!!!


:eek:

Beautiful! Not only did it reach the previous high, but it made a perfect two bar consolidaiton and then took off again! I stand by my original post, and would take profits at the 38.2% extension. My stop loss would be just below the previous high (14 bars back from the right).

 

[kgharris]

Quote from kernan:



Beautiful! Not only did it reach the previous high, but it made a perfect two bar consolidaiton and then took off again! I stand by my original post, and would take profits at the 38.2% extension. My stop loss would be just below the previous high (14 bars back from the right).

Excellent analysis Kernan.

inandlong, I predict there will be numerous posters who come on the thread and say it was obvious, and they would have traded it "that way".

Kudos to the people that posted their thoughts BEFORE you posted the rest of the chart!

 

[inandlong]

Just one bar this time.... oh the agony! And how about a trendline? Nothing too extreme.

kg' that is hilarious!!!

 

[kernan]

Quote from inandlong:

Just one bar this time.... oh the agony! And how about a trendline? Nothing too extreme.

kg' that is hilarious!!!

We will probably at least pullback to the trendline - we can reevaluate at that point.

If the next to the last bar did not have the "wick" at the top - signifying a minor pullback from the high - I would be bullish on the last bar's action. But, with that weakness present, I would take my profits on a break of the low of the last bar.

If that happens, as stated above - it will pullback to the trendline where we can reevaluate the action once again.

I will have to check the results Friday. I must retire for the evening. Have a great night all!

 

[inandlong]

That is some sound work kernan. Rest well.

Let's see how this goes.

 

[newtoet]

Quote from inandlong:

That is some sound work kernan. Rest well.

Let's see how this goes.

OK inandlong...take this in the spirit it was intended. Are you Kernan?

If not, that is some freaky analysis!!!!

 

[TGregg]

Quote from inandlong:

Next! I have given more bars this time so you can see what is happening. The traders who saw the NR4/ID and traded it, regardless of their bias, are doing well.

Well, I did OK. Bought, then sold at the previous high. If partials were allowed I woulda exited 2/3s and hung on for the chance for a new high - but not much of one.

 

[TGregg]

Quote from inandlong:

That is some sound work kernan. Rest well.

Let's see how this goes.

At this point, I might short and cover at the previous resistance that is now support.

EDIT: That'd be the previous high.

 

[maggandre]

Quote from inandlong:

That is some sound work kernan. Rest well.

Let's see how this goes.

Great thread!

Last bar was a tombstone doji at support from the trendline. I would be a buyer above it, and a seller below it.

I would actually prefer the short, as it would break the trendline and setup a good trade as many would be expecting a long play to new highs.

Kernan - where do I send the check? Nevermind, I already paid you once!

 

[inandlong]

newtoet, lol, no but you are right, that was right on the money huh?

TGregg, partials are allowed. You know what you would have done, and that is good enough.

Magg I think so too. We did this a bit in Strategy Trading when I was there.

Anyway, the horizontal line part is not going to be a part anymore. Imo, it is a very good exercise. Man, in Strategy trading when we did it, I stunk up the place.

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