Trade of a Decade?

SethArb · Feb 3, 2008

-I am very seldom wrong when I make large speculative trades because I work about 20 hours a day until a mental solution occurs. Until I find the truth, I study to the excesses like my life is on the line. Wrong is not an option on this projective trade.-

I hope to read more about your success and wealth in years ahead in the financial media ... not only on ET

Turhovach · Feb 3, 2008

Like I said, maybe to you its just a question of semantics. To me -- well, let's just say I tend to focus on precision. Substituting words willy nilly, especially when it comes to something as precise as trading sets off alarms, i.e., the poster doesn't know what he is talking about.

There was no insult intended and based on your first post, I really didn't know what you were referring to. You were talking about the Eurodollar, but posting a EUR/USD chart. To me, that's ignorance or ineptitude. I was merely pointing out your errror. If you can't deal with that in a mature manner, then here's an insult for you -- GFY

Have a great life...

jsmooth · Feb 4, 2008

Quote from SecretGeek:

Here is the chart.

I'm just curious....so is this the correct chart? I dont see any prices or dates on that thing. Also, the Euro was introduced around 1999, and if thats a 'monthly' bar chart, it looks like too much data? correct me if I'm wrong?

robbie380 · Feb 4, 2008

Quote from SecretGeek:

and if you're wrong?

Excellent question! I was always aware I should watch out for the ones with few words.

I am very seldom wrong when I make large speculative trades because I work about 20 hours a day until a mental solution occurs. Until I find the truth, I study to the excesses like my life is on the line. Wrong is not an option on this projective trade.

I'm glad you work hard but that doesn't preclude you from being wrong. Again...what if you are wrong? Some of the worst trades I have had are the ones where I just got in without having some kind of knowledge about what I was risking.

But other than that if you like the trade then go for it. I have no clue how you can excute an 8 year trade only based on technicals but if you think you can it's all you.

MrAngry · Feb 4, 2008

Because of the carry cost, I will play it another way where I will earn the carry cost (or at least not pay it). Do not ask me to reveal how to do it here in a public forum, but it is doable!

Decades ago, I wanted to short sterling/dem. Cost of carry was huge, so I did sterling/lira instead.

Sterling/dem duly fell out of bed, rolled down the stairs, out of the front dorr and down the street. What a result - but unfortunately, the lira devalued.

Correlation trading is great - just beware when the relationship breaks down, as like TA, r2 values are based on past behaiour.

arealpissedgoy · Feb 28, 2008

Quote from SecretGeek:

and if you're wrong?

Excellent question! I was always aware I should watch out for the ones with few words.

I am very seldom wrong when I make large speculative trades because I work about 20 hours a day until a mental solution occurs. Until I find the truth, I study to the excesses like my life is on the line. Wrong is not an option on this projective trade.

Could you provide an update on how your "short" position is going?

arealpissedgoy · Mar 13, 2008

bite the dust?

outsized ego + dimunitive trading ability = walking disaster

Quote from SecretGeek:

Excellent question! I was always aware I should watch out for the ones with few words.

I am very seldom wrong when I make large speculative trades because I work about 20 hours a day until a mental solution occurs. Until I find the truth, I study to the excesses like my life is on the line. Wrong is not an option on this projective trade.

Trader KGB · Mar 13, 2008

Quote from arealpissedgoy:

Could you provide an update on how your "short" position is going?

I don't think he's going to reply, if he's even on ET anymore.

The trade wouldn't be a big loss if he had a stop directly above the yearly overhead trendline. He never indicated an intention to hold short in the event the trendline was broken. Price sailed right through it back on 2/26 and never looked back.

The great thing about trendline trades like these is the binary scenario they present. Either short a test, or buy a break. Place your stop above or below the line depending on direction entered. Sometimes, you'll get a rough patch of consolidation like last Nov and be stopped out. However, a short of the two subsequent tests and a long on the breakout were each good for 500-600 pip runs (-50 for a trailing stop).

ammo · Mar 13, 2008

Quote from SecretGeek:

two thoughts: one: it's obvious you never traded before in your life two: you need pscyhological help

With a reply like that, I am surprised you received a right to post here. Please write something intelligent or not at all. There are many other threads here you can abuse people on. By the way...may I ask how old you are?

i see your new so heres the score, traders have a rep for being assholes,know it alls, and coke heads who when hi become exagerrrated versions of former descriptions,some can't even stand themselves and constantly change their handle and come out and blast evertyone and brag about how long they've traded and or been an asshole, to these posters you don't respond,it pisses them off when they go back to check on the thread and find out they didn't get to you

arealpissedgoy · Mar 14, 2008

Quote from Trader KGB:

I don't think he's going to reply, if he's even on ET anymore.

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Thanks for posting the chart.

This is what I wrote...after ohh......30 seconds of looking at the chart he posted. So much for his supposed 20 hours a day analysis.

Quote from arealpissedgoy:

The price could hit the upper channel, pull back and then sharply break above that channel.

[Truncated]

Take your pick. Either one makes the EUR go higher. The EUR has it's own structural problems, so until a common Asian currency unit comes into play, it's sell the USD, buy the EUR for now.

I think the USD will begin to fish out a bottom after the elections are over.

Obama wins, kicks out Ben Bernanke, hangs a few crooks on wall street to bring confidence back to the markets, re-structures foreign policy to extricate the US from the bush fiasco and republicans gross fiscal irresponsibility, pays down the debt with the money saved. (bush is probably the last republican US president for a long long time. bush has proven republicans can't be trusted )

If Hillary wins, well expect the more of the same as bush.

If the lesbian or mccain wins, then the only reason the USD will move higher is because the eurozone will begin the process of breaking up.

Ireland is spiraling into a depressionary recession. If the Irish population gives the EU the middle finger, EUR begins to sell off.