Trade of a Decade?

The price could hit the upper channel, pull back and then sharply break above that channel.

I think it breaks above the channel for 2 reasons

1) The U.S. private central bank...opps I mean the "Fed" will probably cut again. Rapidly inflating the USD is the only way to keep the real estate market from going into free fall, and the only way to pay back the increasing foreign debt.

2) The arabs are getting antsy with the USD/Crude peg. Since most of them export crude to Europe and Asia, they lose a large % of every sale because of the ever falling USD.

I doubt they have the bravado to completely decouple the peg ( any sane producing nation would have done that by now). However the peg will possibly change into a basket of currencies heavily weighted in the free falling USD ( the guy with the gun will always have the last say).

Take your pick. Either one makes the EUR go higher. The EUR has it's own structural problems, so until a common Asian currency unit comes into play, it's sell the USD, buy the EUR for now.
 
Quote from SecretGeek:

Hello everyone. I am new here.


I created a basic channel chart (see attached) of the Euro Dollar for its entire history of trading. I have attached this graphic for you to view. It the pattern continues, a top may occur in the latter portion of 2009 and a bottom around 2017 or so more years but the bottom is not important now as I am focusing on the top as it is within eyesite.

In my opinion, there is no reason to make a couple of thousand or two. It takes too much energy when our minds can be used for the big trades. I focus on the big trades. This is one of 'em.

I plan to ride $50K to see what happens but I need to to turn this into to $100K before it is time for the middle peak in late 2009. With forex the limit is 100:1 margin ratio. I intend to use 50:1 just to be cautious in a volitile market. In other words, I hope to not sell off some of my position when estimating the top when I short the top @ 50:1. I believe there will be one major top and a couple of mini-tops similar to the 1992 time frame. One mini-top is being made right now which is one the verge of being parabolic curve busted downward.

So, I take $100,000 cash with $5,000,000 buying power or 5 $100K lots. Hold on to the position for about 8 years from the top to the bottom of the channel. For each pip, the $5M would be $500. At each mini-peak on the way to the eight year bottom, I short more since the equity has fallen less than 50:1. At each min-bottom, I cover the secondary shorts but I save my orginal position. I figure there is 700 pips to be made with out the secondary trades. 700 pips * $500 per pip with -2 carryover is around $350K. $350K / 8 years ($43K) = a seven fold factor since I started with $50K.


OK. Let's hear the opinions now, good and bad.
More...



and if you're wrong?
 
Nonsense reply? LOL I don't know about you pal, maybe its all semantics to you. Whatever... But, the Eurodollar is not the EUR/USD. Look it up. You might learn something...





Yep! You knew what I was referring to when I wrote the Euro Dollar. I know the difference and now I know you do. Thanks for showing me we are on the same thought pattern. Do you have something intelligent to write or are you gonna continue with your Ellie Mae and Jethro attitude?
 
Your chart is not up to date.

Since december the Euro has plateaued, oscillating in a range, without getting past 1.50
This doesn't appear at all in your chart.



The chart can be enlarged. When using IExplorer, place your cursor over the image and then quickly click the "sizer" button that flashes. If you are quick enough, the chart will enlarge five fold, or so. Then look at the top of the chart. What date and time do you see?

The chart is a monthly over the entire term of trading the EUR/USD. It doesn't show small 100-200 pip fluctuations that occur quickly as you refer to. See what I mean now? Not too many traders/investors/speculators ignore the small 100 pip advances and declines. In other words, one long candle is a great profit or loss opportunity and combines many jerking whipsaw motions. Imagine encompassing the DJIA over the course of its existance. Draw two lines in the most logical pattern encompassing the prices. Each peak may be 54 or so years. I can guarantee you the price will not move out of the channel to a minor degree.
 
Technical analysis can predict long term gauges, like fibonacci retracements used to mark the dow since the beginning.



Thanks for the support. The author that wrote "...don't have a clue" doesn't have a clue.

Watch the candle mover of the the vehicle I am referring to. He or she comes on (show time) at about 11-12:00 PM EST. He or she moves the candles, not for fundamentals, but for techicals. Since a high is obviously the objective for this person (people)........the other night, I watch this person set a new record high. This occurred through technical candles, parabolic curves set at 20 and .02, and bollinger bands set at 34 and 3.4. The curves would be intentionally broken to gain momentum. Art of the deal. This was incredible to watch. The candles were intentionally positioned through the bid and ask market making. These people are experts. I have never see anything like it in my life and I am an expert. They want to set a new high again. However, it will probpably take them three major tries like in the early 1990s. When the high was set, he or she was trying to form a pennant to break up again. Right at the last, someone threw a bundle and buckled the bid and she dropped about 100 pips very quickly. One could hear the sucking noise.
 
I have bee making money recently shorting the EUR/USD. The daily charts suggest that it is at a short term top. Every top starts by being a short term top. This forum is bearish on the dollar. It is is time to go long the dollar.

Because of the carry cost, I will play it another way where I will earn the carry cost (or at least not pay it). Do not ask me to reveal how to do it here in a public forum, but it is doable!




You are writing words of wisdom! You are probably referring to options of the EUD/USD which have a time limit in return for the carry cost. I guess it comes down to what you are willing to risk. Pay me now or pay me later.

It is much easier to short than go long for a momentem player. When this candle mover moves the market straight up, we know he or she won't move it all at the same time. So if one were to short the first move upward, a cover should occur relatively quick on the immediate move down, to free up margin percentages so as not to be forced to liquidate a small percentage of position on the major move up. The biggest move up usually comes after the first move and sometimes the third move up. This is an old trick because the trader know he is playing against average cost. If they can lock in cost the first bump up, then when they move up the largest, usually the lower cost shorts have to liquidate a tad of their holdings. This is where the short position holder becomes defensive and the trader cleans house by playing with the shorter's confidence....mind game.
 
Hilarious. Did he actually post the wrong chart?

This guy is our good friend southamerica, that friend of Kings and predictor of every world event and macro financial event since 1976.

day7793

jreynolds

TheKin2

increasenow

and now featuring....




TrickNicky.....No! It is the correct chart. Did you look at it? If you did, you would know it was the correct chart. Therefore, write something intelligent instead of writing about losing attitude stuff. No one want to be around someone with a bad attitude. Winners congregate around winners. I am a winner. Now fall back in line.
 
The price could hit the upper channel, pull back and then sharply break above that channel.

I think it breaks above the channel for 2 reasons

1) The U.S. private central bank...opps I mean the "Fed" will probably cut again. Rapidly inflating the USD is the only way to keep the real estate market from going into free fall, and the only way to pay back the increasing foreign debt.

2) The arabs are getting antsy with the USD/Crude peg. Since most of them export crude to Europe and Asia, they lose a large % of every sale because of the ever falling USD.

I doubt they have the bravado to completely decouple the peg ( any sane producing nation would have done that by now). However the peg will possibly change into a basket of currencies heavily weighted in the free falling USD ( the guy with the gun will always have the last say).

Take your pick. Either one makes the EUR go higher. The EUR has it's own structural problems, so until a common Asian currency unit comes into play, it's sell the USD, buy the EUR for now.






Another intelligent author. It is my lucky day! Two in one day. I am on a roll now. I had a hunch there were winners in this group. You are a winner friend!

In reality, the price will behave according to whoever has the most bucks and motive. For example, have you ever moved a market before? I have. Have you ever been in a short squeeze? I have. So, there are extraordinary occurances where motives, mechanics, and excess cash (ego trips like Soros) can move markets to the extreme. However, there is a strong gravity (force) at the upper and lower bands of the entire history of trading a market vehicle. For example, when the tulip peak was hit long time ago, that marks the top of the tulip channel. The chances of this peak being exceeded diagonally (uptrend or downtrend) is slim to none. It is a force of nature and there is nothing we can do about it.
 
and if you're wrong?


Excellent question! I was always aware I should watch out for the ones with few words. :D

I am very seldom wrong when I make large speculative trades because I work about 20 hours a day until a mental solution occurs. Until I find the truth, I study to the excesses like my life is on the line. Wrong is not an option on this projective trade.
 
Quote from SecretGeek:

TrickNicky..... I am a winner. Now fall back in line.
More...

Yes Sir!!!

When you move from paper trading to real money trading you will probably find that when your analysis seems right but you get stopped out, you experience some confusion as to whether yoru methods are sound. Don't give up!! Remember that trading takes a long time to master and that there will occur some losses as you navigate the learning curve.

Trade small when you first start out in real money trading. Avoid the temptation to increase size after a losing trade in order to 'make it back'.

Good luck on your journey, and hopefully you'll still be around in a year or two. Maybe this can be a substitute for University for you! I know it's very difficult to get in these days.
 
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