Quote from hajimow:
I did not say for sure. That is my prediction based on my experience and the info that I get from the market.
Answers to other questions:
Buying Call will be more profitable but you are buying time and selling PUT you are selling time. In PUT you have more cushin if the stock drops. I am doing this in a rather huge volume (over 200 contracts) so I should make good money if I am right.
All things said, I agree that no trade is risk free. I did not say my trade is risk free. YHOO can go below 11 and even can go to zero. One of my early trades in the market was buying Bre-X mineral shares. Market veterans know what happened to it in 1998.
By the way my average price on this trade is 0.65 and not 0.43
Quote from newwurldmn:
With big risk (20,000 dollars a point). I was short Jan12 12.5 puts when the stock was hovering around 13. But at 16 I don't think the risk reward favors puts. If Jerry Yang does some stupid this stock can be 12 real fast.
Also, 43 cents isn't 17% return. It's closer to 3%.
Quote from hajimow:
Every contract costs me $250 in cash so with 2500, I can trade 10 contracts and get $430. So if the trade goes in my favor, I will make $430 minus about $8 commission.
Rate of return = [$430-$8]/ 2500=16.88 %