Variables in general... that have effect on volatility 
The deal indeed is set in stone.
The deal indeed is set in stone.
Trade deal signing on Jan 15!
- Thread starter nooby_mcnoob
- Start date
I think it's a sell on the news thing.
Did you read the details of the trade deal?
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-...al-details-phase-one-revealed-china-make-huge
Imagine China agrees to all of that without Trump's trade war?
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No, I didn't read it in details before. I have checked now what you linked.Thanks for link.
Read my entire post - I treat all this as a big puzzle with many peaces. Trade war is not separated "thing". I will be not surprised if in case of signing a deal there will be deescalation of Middle East conflict (for now).
Think of China position - they are long horizons players (not from mandate to mandate like in many countries). If you are in their position you cannot allow to escalate any conflict and for sure you cannot allow to participate in any global war (not now, not if you are on the way to be world prime economic leader). You just need to buy more time.
But I'm surprised that they agreed to such conditions. It shows that they are really focused on long perspective.
No, they really have no choice. Trump's timing was excellent and he negotiates from a position of strength (strong US economy so can risk a slow down whereas China's was slowing).
Long term you are probably correct but at least this deal blunts the Chinese momentum a little. Imagine if it is business as usual, they will definitely dominate within a decade.
Of course - all this trade war was like "not much to loose" scenario.
He had choice of do nothing, so the domination will came faster or try to stop it or slow it down. So from the strategic point the choice was good (for US).
But still I think China is in position to make better conditions OR they just are afraid of some global military conflict (like wrote before) + their economy can be very weak at the moment (it is possible, because we don't even have some real economic data, they can show any numbers...). It just is a pity that the economy of other countries got a ricochet and a new armed conflict was launched.
In my prior life I had done business in Asia and here is one man's non professional opinion:
The 21st century belongs to Asia - China, India, Japan, Korea... IF they can avoid their achilles' heel: Their cultures promote conformity and do not reward outliers or innovators. As a result, it is harder for them to develop breakthrough thinking, technology or business concepts.
They need to change for them to really dominate the world stage. Look how well the Indians, Chinese, Japanese, Koreas, Vietnamese... immigrants have done in the US.
we don't know the half of it, so it's too early to draw any conclusions, I think we should at least observe, but the situation is acute in fact...