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canuckstuffed

The FDA has stated that they're looking mainly into the flavored vapes. Only 15% of their EBIT comes from flavored vaping products and 30% from vape sales, but the stock is down 50% from the peak.

Are vaping stocks overshorted?
 
canuckstuffed said:
The FDA has stated that they're looking mainly into the flavored vapes. Only 15% of their EBIT comes from flavored vaping products and 30% from vape sales, but the stock is down 50% from the peak.

Are vaping stocks overshorted?
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I don't know how to determine if something is "over"-conditioned, but I see precedent.

See Arizona state and the indoor clean-air act of 1973.

See New York state and the cell-phone driving hands-free law of 2001.

See Washington state and the driving texting ban of 2007.

See California state and the medical marijuana law of 1996.

See Colorado and Washington state and the recreational marijuana laws of 2012.

Now see the 4-month ban of all vaping products in Massachusetts state in 2019. Where do you think this will go?
 
This one seems odd to me because cigarettes definitely are not going to be illegal. You would be banning vaporized tobacco but not smoked tobacco? Seems odd. Even Massachusetts is a temporary ban. I'd expect the industry to recover once this specific investigation by the FDA into Vitamin E Acetate completes.
 
canuckstuffed said:
This one seems odd to me because cigarettes definitely are not going to be illegal. You would be banning vaporized tobacco but not smoked tobacco? Seems odd. Even Massachusetts is a temporary ban. I'd expect the industry to recover once this specific investigation by the FDA into Vitamin E Acetate completes.
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I think the key differences here is that "vaping" didn't really catch on until what, 2010-2013? It has not been mainstream for long.

In such a short time span, we're seeing many illnesses, and in some cases death, from the start of vaping to death.

With cigarettes, it took decades for these symptoms and eventual diseases to crop up.

I guess it has to do with inhaling copious amounts of vaporized antifreeze (Yes, the stuff in your car's radiator) and glycerin into your lungs.

Sure, cigarette tobacco has a lot of bad VOCs in it. But it already burned when it gets into your lungs. Vaporizing does not burn the stuff, it just puts it into vapor. Yer inhaling boiled antifreeze, man. Bad juju.
 
I think you guys are right .I switched from long to short today. The momentum is clearly still downward. I'll ride it down and keep an eye out for a reversal. I do think it's going to shoot back up in a few months, but I'll be patient.
 
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