Yes...based on your response you either missed something or misinterpreted stockfrosty message.
Mark
(a.k.a. NihabaAshi) Japanese Candlestick term
Toughest trade in the world: S & P 500?
- Thread starter stockfrosty
- Start date
Yes...based on your response you either missed something or misinterpreted stockfrosty message.
Mark
(a.k.a. NihabaAshi) Japanese Candlestick term
Because the 5% who know how to trade it make a killing.
I just switched over from YM to ES and now wonder why I put up with all the YM noise for so long.
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Interesting comparisons , S&P 500 compared here;
1] to crooked card game filled with cheats,
2] banging your head against the wall, feels good to stop,
3]Old timer $100 stock, apparently mostly intraday/no charts.
It takes a certain type of personality to bang your head against a wall or even another pro football helmet or
trade or even want to trade a sloppy- choppy trend
Even if one mastered volume as a leading indicator;
that may not help if one if he/she doesn't like to swing trade/position trade leveraged super sloppy- choppy trends.
coolHello:
Trading the S&P is a specialty. It is difficult because of the noise as has been said. The idea that one can use a single indicator or even several to produce a turnkey solution is simply naive.
Good professionals use everything they have to make a profit. Experience, technical savvy, everything. At this point in time I look at the action and I am pretty much like a chess player watching the moves of an opponent I have seen play many, many times. I know what his repertoire is, I know what he is likely to do, but instead of waiting for him to make a mistake, I am doing the opposite, I am waiting for him to do something that I have seen before, so I can react and profit from what is likely (remember it is a game of odds) to come from it.
For the S&P I want to see movement at specific times during the trading day. I want to frame these moves against the daily news and other market action (Oldtrader is right about sectors and market leaders). I look at technical indicators like pivots and moving averages because I know others are watching them. Knowing this market like I do, I watch for very simple setups like the 123, and I always keep the previous day's high, low and close in my consciousness
For me the bottom line is that trading the indexes on short time frames (intraday) is a game of odds making. You work out a program to calc the odds based on your study of past data. You find an edge that works consistently and you milk it as much as possible before it disappears. Rinse and repeat with good money management.
Best to all.
Steve
Trading the S&P is a specialty. It is difficult because of the noise as has been said. The idea that one can use a single indicator or even several to produce a turnkey solution is simply naive.
Good professionals use everything they have to make a profit. Experience, technical savvy, everything. At this point in time I look at the action and I am pretty much like a chess player watching the moves of an opponent I have seen play many, many times. I know what his repertoire is, I know what he is likely to do, but instead of waiting for him to make a mistake, I am doing the opposite, I am waiting for him to do something that I have seen before, so I can react and profit from what is likely (remember it is a game of odds) to come from it.
For the S&P I want to see movement at specific times during the trading day. I want to frame these moves against the daily news and other market action (Oldtrader is right about sectors and market leaders). I look at technical indicators like pivots and moving averages because I know others are watching them. Knowing this market like I do, I watch for very simple setups like the 123, and I always keep the previous day's high, low and close in my consciousness
For me the bottom line is that trading the indexes on short time frames (intraday) is a game of odds making. You work out a program to calc the odds based on your study of past data. You find an edge that works consistently and you milk it as much as possible before it disappears. Rinse and repeat with good money management.
Best to all.
Steve
1) I agree with someone's comment about leading indicator...there isn't one really one. I suppose those who trade stocks can and should use futures as the indicator. The logic behind it is easy to understand. If you have an understanding of how index arb. works, you will know why it is wise to monitor the activities of futures b/c futures has the power to influence the indexes (thereby the stocks within those indexes). Sometimes, futures will lead the indexes. Hence, at this time, it could be used as a leading indicator. Most of the time, indexes will perform just as well as futures. At this time, futures is no longer a leading indicator. This takes me to my next point about market manipulation.
2) I suppose it is possible to manipulate the market short-term. This is could be done by trading instruments like futures (high leverage to boost buying power). Because futures can often have an effect on stock indexes (from index arb.) as I have mentioned earlier. If you're a trader who monitors the price movement of futures carefully, you will see what's going on. The market can be manipulated to profit from those who don't monitor price movement carefully. It is also possible for you to profit from this market manipulation by spotting and riding the wave.
In theory, in order to manipulate the market that is trending up, one would have to sell so much to cause a reversal (sell more than people are buying). This reversal could be within a short or long time frame. If it is short, it should exibit certain anomolies which technical analysis could pick up as a sudden reversal. If it is of longer time frame, technical analysis could see that as a down trend. By using indicators, you are protected from losing alot in events of market manipulation. Everything is reflected in the price. You can choose to go in and ride the wave, or sit out if it's too dangerous. Since, futures are electronically traded, there is no designated specialist or MM to manipulate the price, unlike stocks. By following price movment of futures, you could be profitable. Just come up with an effective way to filter out market noise (which is often harder said then done).
3) I don't understand why it is so hard to make money trading the market? It's easy, really! First, you search for someone who consistently loses money. Then, you do the opposite of what he does. When he sells, you buy; when he buys, you sell. You will be consistently profitable, very profitable.
2) I suppose it is possible to manipulate the market short-term. This is could be done by trading instruments like futures (high leverage to boost buying power). Because futures can often have an effect on stock indexes (from index arb.) as I have mentioned earlier. If you're a trader who monitors the price movement of futures carefully, you will see what's going on. The market can be manipulated to profit from those who don't monitor price movement carefully. It is also possible for you to profit from this market manipulation by spotting and riding the wave.
In theory, in order to manipulate the market that is trending up, one would have to sell so much to cause a reversal (sell more than people are buying). This reversal could be within a short or long time frame. If it is short, it should exibit certain anomolies which technical analysis could pick up as a sudden reversal. If it is of longer time frame, technical analysis could see that as a down trend. By using indicators, you are protected from losing alot in events of market manipulation. Everything is reflected in the price. You can choose to go in and ride the wave, or sit out if it's too dangerous. Since, futures are electronically traded, there is no designated specialist or MM to manipulate the price, unlike stocks. By following price movment of futures, you could be profitable. Just come up with an effective way to filter out market noise (which is often harder said then done).
3) I don't understand why it is so hard to make money trading the market? It's easy, really! First, you search for someone who consistently loses money. Then, you do the opposite of what he does. When he sells, you buy; when he buys, you sell. You will be consistently profitable, very profitable.
3) I don't understand why it is so hard to make money trading the market? It's easy, really! First, you search for someone who consistently loses money. Then, you do the opposite of what he does. When he sells, you buy; when he buys, you sell. You will be consistently profitable, very profitable.
Dang, thats brilliant. I would have paid you 10,000 for that insight, but now that you've given it away for free.....
Dang, thats brilliant. I would have paid you 10,000 for that insight, but now that you've given it away for free.....