Tough morning in YM
- Thread starter Rickshaw Man
- Start date
I feel your frustration, I am just a disgusted in this slop. Just take a step back. I truly do feel this weeks job report and earnings will get things moving, at least that is what I am praying for.
You know I went back a decade or so and was hard pressed to find another period with as little volatility as we have presently. What we are experiencing is call "mean revision"
from 98-2001 or so it was nutz. The whole 90's have had some voltile summers.
Every decade seems to have it's crisis. In the 70s, it was oil. In the 80s, it was interest rates. In the 90s, it was the stock market. In the first part of this decade, it is Real Estate.
I think the western markets are disgesting the unprecented growth that the world has seen. Also, the SIFs are extremely efficient these days as a result of the amazing amount of information that is available on a second by second.
This is not your father's markets.
Just as you were complaining of the slop, SIFs got crushed. How many made money?
nitro
I agree to an extent. I would just argue that in previous times, there was more transparency and hence there were better market relationships to "key" off of. Nowadays, with the sophistication of managed money and their dependence on certain correlations, etc, etc, alot of those "side bets" get squeezed or unwound and distort these market relationships in a big way.
Just look at 2005 and how many intra-market relationships have bit the dust. This market feels like a constant unwinding of spreads gone bad.
That may be. That is why it takes lots of courage to trade today because most positions will experience MAE before it does MFE, no matter which way you are postioned.
People also assume that technology will have no effect on the markets. That clearly cannot be true. If markets are forwards looking and discounting mechanisms, and technology allows us to model the future more accurately second by second, the markets will reflect that over time.
nitro
Quote from nitro:
from 98-2001 or so it was nutz. The whole 90's have had some voltile summers.
Every decade seems to have it's crisis. In the 70s, it was oil. In the 80s, it was interest rates. In the 90s, it was the stock market.
I think the world is disgesting the unprecented growth that the world has seen. Also, the SIFs are extremely efficient these days as a result of the amazing amount of information that is available on a second by second.
This is not your father's markets.
Just as you were complaining of the slop, SIFs got crushed. How many made money?
nitro
Yes I saw that, Oil shot up another 70 cents, now up $1.70 for the day. I have trouble getting short, and pretty much trade from the long side. On a percentage basis the movemnet in the Dow has been very very very low
Not to digress from the conversation at hand, but when I analyze the Dow components, I couldnt be more bearish longer term. Its clear this dollar strength is squeezing these conglomerates and the price action reflects that. Throw in a flattening yield curve and high probabilities of a recession and I think the Dow is a bloated pig ready to be punctured. Of course, have to have some alternative methodology to capitalize on it and the day to day noise makes it pretty hard to position for it.
Certainly you can be waiting a long time to trade the long side with oil ballistic. You are likely to lose your patience and take positions you probably should not.
I was long GE the last few days, in and out alot. I lost only a little because I see relentless sellers. Why fight it?
What we should be taking notice of is that NQ wants higher, and ES and YM have crushed it recently...
nitro