Total Recall

9JUL

There were only two big distribution days in June with one being the no QE3 following day. Jun20
That big red bar is clear to see for future ref.


2.2% CHINA CPI LOWER THAN EXPECTED.



euro banking regulation not ready by year end. euro 122-124 no longer 124-128



ma5 ma20

TLT + + +.88% upside breakout of sideways 23 day range. 3 days up. Bonds appear to have a take on things the last few
days that fit with the bad news as opposed to SPY(mild neg reaction) and VXX ( no reaction)


HYG + + frequent resistance going back 6 months.
Has been risk-on lowering yeilds for corp bonds since JUN1. Very smooth rise. Looks done.

All euro country etfs pulling back for the last 3 days.

EWG - - 3 down days like most
EWP - - sov. yeilds back up over 7%.
EWQ - -
EWI - -

FXE - - Last week ECB lack of action broke support at 123. New resistance?
Finding new range?
FXY + - tight 2 day range. PA looks like a long setup , not very convincing.
FXA + + uptrend since JUN1. A Fast Money currency trader picks sell AUD/JPY expecting weak China GDP this week
to weigh on AUD and boost YEN.
"A tamer than expected 2.2% YoY Chinese CPI reading and a 14.8% MoM plunge in Japan's core machinery orders pushed
Asian markets lower, and that weakness spread into Europe as Spain's 10-yr climbed back above 7.00%."


UUP + + down day. near top of range. High volatility in last 7 days. Down hard with summit joy followed by up hard with
ECB meet/jobs.

SPY - + 135.32 . Low volume summer/holiday. 3 red dojis. close almost exact to open last 3 days
Stong PA relative to news.

FXI - - weak PA recently with LL and LH. Manufact number weak and 7.3ish GDP number expected this week. 2.2 CPI . Hard landing/ deflation?
SPY/FXI ?



USO + + +1.84% volatile recently. dollar down day
GLD - - Up a little . mid range . dollar down day.

oil/copper/steel/coal same PA last couple weeks. All above Ma20 and pulling back due to ecb/jobs/china/sov yeilds after last weeks post
european risk on rally. China GDP this week.

JJC - +
SLX - +
KOL - +

VXX + - breakout to new lows after euro summit 6 days ago after a tripple bottom going back to march.
No fear or reaction to perceived ECB failed meeting/ job report. De-coupling from Europe country
etfs and euro and sov. yeilds > 7%

AA earnings a non event to upside surprise?
 
JUL10
Tommorrow: Trade balance and FOMC meeting minutes( from extend twist...No QE3 Jun20 meeting)
Possible market reads in hopes of QE3 in light of data since meeting.

AMD, AA , Cummins, a couple other non majors weak earnings (missing a low bar) and low guidance.
Seems like one could say the main reason market down is due to American Corp news/earnings/guidance.
AA down hard , bad PA.

ES up 10 overnight. Opening range is high and trend down day 20 handles.

Europe:
Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court,
which heard arguments regarding a challenge to the country’s participation
in funding the permanent European Stability Mechanism, reportedly said
the ruling could take up to three months. A decision wasn’t expected on Tuesday,
but the ESM was supposed to become operational on July 1


Euro-zone finance ministers, at yet another emergency meeting, agreed to give Spain an
additional year to meet their deficit targets. There was also agreement to move
forward with some of the money to prop up Spanish banks. Spanish bond yields
dropped back below 7% to 6.88%.


Japan:
The head of the Bank of Japan was quoted as vowing to continue “strong” steps aimed
at shaking the nation out of its deflationary state.
“We have accumulated up to ¥54 trillion ($681 billion) of asset purchases
so far, but we are aiming for ¥70 trillion and through the accumulation of another ¥16 trillion in assets
we believe the impact of monetary easing will be further enhanced,” Bank of Japan Gov. Masaaki Shirakawa said Tuesday, according to a government official. Read about the BOJ chief’s comments.
The remarks were made in a government meeting and come ahead of a two-day BOJ policy
meeting that begins Wednesday.

The Bank of Japan also said on Tuesday that it was implementing “strong monetary easing steps,
such as its near-zero interest rate policy and asset purchases in order to overcome deflation.”
Speculation builds that the central bank may offer more easing.
Japan factory orders/global slowdown factors this week.
I remember IMF pushing for 1% inflation target implying higher yeilds in the future on top of already 200% GDP total public debt.
They havent seemed to meet expectations regarding easing in recent past.
I had a notion to short yen a while back on "easing". The easing wasnt enough and yen went up.
EWJ and FXY strong neg 100 day corr = -81. EWJ stong rally since JUN1 pulling back to 20ma 1st time.
Lots of issues with YEN I dont know. Stay away from major news/events etc. PA only.


JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo on Friday morning only major earnings this week.


Bonds:
The long bond ended the day up close to half a point as its yield slid 2.6 bps to 2.594%.
10-yr note lowered its yield by 1.5 bps to 1.498%. Flattening along the yield curve
caused the 2-10-yr spread to narrow to 122 bps.

Dollar up but range bound near top. commodities copper/oil/gold/steel/coal down.

Gold down $25 to $152 GLD/CG is still trading inside the JUN1 bar. Well defined 1530-1630 on GCAug

ma5 ma20

TLH + + +.12% up small on a SPY distribution day.


HYG + + -.44% top of range

All euro country etfs pulling back for the last 4 days. decreasing down momentum on day bars.

EWG - -
EWP - - sov. yeilds 6.8% see above
EWQ - -
EWI - -

FXE - - -.55% weak/lower
FXY + - top of tight 11 day range.
FXA + + -.18% Dont know. Relatively stong for a riskoff commodity down day

UUP + + Unable to test May31 high. Up .35% at top of range tight 3 day.
SPY - + -.87% Overnight/pre-market makes engulfing bar look worse.
SPY sitting at both bottom channel trendline from JUN1 and thin support
level 134ish and ma20 for context.132 is my next important level to hold
to maintain daily HH/HL series since JUN1. 4 down days in a row.

FXI - - -1.88% down hard today.



USO - + Down 2% today
GLD - - Down $25 today.

oil/copper/steel/coal same PA last couple weeks. All above Ma20 and pulling back due to ecb/jobs/china/sov yeilds after last weeks post
european risk on rally. China GDP this week. Add a poor 1st day for US corp earnings news.

JJC - +
SLX - +
KOL - +

VXX + - +2.74 . Four days into +1 risk off for bonds, EUR/USD, Europe country etfs, US stock indices and commodities
yet VXX is flat.
 
JUL11

FOMC minutes didnt show any desire to ease more than original statement.
SPY sold off after FOMC minutes seemed to bounce off down sloping MA50 and finished near open.
Holding bottom channel trendline good.
Bearish with earnings unfolding as they are and SOME estimates now -neg for Q2 2012.
Need high percentage beats and + guidance for market health. Most say not this quater.
But market is down 5 straight days so must look for a bounce.

Jul 11 08:30 Trade Balance May -$48.7B -$50.6B -$48.9B -$50.6B -$50.1B
Jul 11 10:00 Wholesale Inventories May 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.6%
Jul 11 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/07 -4.696M NA NA -4.270M (oil supposedly rallied on this report)


More austerity measures for Spain. Make recession deeper and longer.
Germanyhttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/spains-rajoy-unveils-65-billion-in-new-austerity-2012-07-11
Also, Spain is pushing back "stress test" on 14 of its banks until November.

Germany is pushing back legality of ESM for Europe bailout fund for "months" not weeks
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...s-parliament-s-approval-to-be-respected-.html


From minutes:

"Almost all participants continue to anticipate that inflation over the medium term would
run at or below 2%" ( This would make QE3 easier if core CPI comes in < 2%...2.3 last month)

"In one participants judgement appropriate monetary policy would lead to inflation modestly greater than 2%
for a time in order to bring unemployment down somewhat faster"
Only one wants QE?

400 bil twist from SEP to JUN ended
Begin JUL2012-DEC2012 267 bil twist extension.
44bil per month purchases of 6-30 year treasuries while seeling or redeeming an equal amount
of treasuries 3 years or less

They are worried about causing meaningful deterioration in treasury market functioning and the
potential cost of such deterioration on the economy as a whole with their continued program.
Find out why.


earnings $96.44 last year.


Earnings:
http://www.factset.com/websitefiles/PDFs/earningsinsight/earningsinsight_7.6.12
http://www.yardeni.com/pub/PEACOCKFEVAL.pdf
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/spearn.htm
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/07/11/profit-growth-not-this-earnings-season/

Yen volatile today.
Oil volatile today.
Bonds and dollar inching up a bit.
Gold followed SPY down with FOMC minutes and recovered with it
Europe quiet

Overnight 11:23 PM EST Bazil cuts rates to 8%
Heng Seng down > 300 and all other Aisian/ Australia
gold -$4 with Yen rallying , ES flat -1.5
Awaiting BOJ monetary policy and China GDP.
Markets seem to lean to a BRICs bad trade and not enough easing from BOJ. Just a guess to check on.
I dont know if it is possible to get an accurate GDP number from China. It isnt possible from us.
 
Big green bars across the board in risk-on after 6or 7 days down lightly.
China GDP didnt dissapoint 7.6% and apparently the size of JPM Q2
loss and the size of the "whale" loss = 5.8 bil. wre all releif to markets.
Gold up $25, indices up 1.5-2%, oil up only 1% to 87, bonds not
selling off much. Dollar down a little and euro up a little.

50 day Ma and bottom channel trendline from JUN1 held.
Top trendline will be approx 138ish. Vrey stong PA and interpretation
to latest news in my opinion.
 
Retail sales for June was very bad at -0.5% and -0.4% ex autos. Expectations were for +0.2%
and unchanged - autos. Third consecutive drop in a row the longest since December 2008
when the US economy was tanking

Goldma Sachs cut Q2 GDP revisions to 1.1. Look back and see 1st estimate was 1.9%?

Even with Citi reporting a miss on the top line of $18.6 billion (Exp. $19 billion),
but a bottom line beat courtesy of more loan loss reserve releases amounting to $984 million,

Bernankes semi-anual testimony tommorrow

This is from Tyler Durden at Zerohedge.com:
Contrary to popular delusions, money flows in Spain are once again deteriorating rapidly,
with the country's bank borrowings from the ECB soaring by €50 billion in June according
to the Bank of Spain, the second highest ever, to a record €337 billion. While this is bad
for Spain, it is good for Italy, which saw its June ECB borrowings rise by only €9 billion,
to a record €281 billion, although well below Spain's total - something Italy, which led
Spain in ECB borrowings since mid-2011 will be delighted to hear. What however, is rather
curious, is that the Spanish TARGET2 net liability soared to €371 billion (-€40 billion
in autonomous factors accounting for the lower total number), forcing the ongoing implicit
German bailout of the periphery to accelerate to a record €729 billion as noted previously.
As a result, for the first time ever, Spanish TARGET2 liabilities represented over half
of total Germany TARGET2 claims. Just as we predicted several months ago, German funding
of peripheral current account balances is the only "source of capital" for these countries
in what is rapidly becoming the latest 'flow of funds' mercantilist scheme, one which can
only sustain for so long by definition. In the meantime, now that we are in the exponential
phase of the TARGET2 blow out, expect the next German update to indicate well over
€2 billion per day in implicit European bailout spending.

Volatility in Europe also being sold hard. No fear in Europe.
Spanish yeilds and spreads w/ Germany near/at highs.
Same in US. Volatility has broken into new lows and indices are advancing.
Talk of a 120 Bernanke put out there but thats a long way down from here.

FXE 122.09 0.30% Euro in a two day rally after stochs5 xover crossing ma5.Below down sloping ma20.
FXY 124.61 0.53% wide range red bar after disappointing QE. 3 day rally since. Above ma5 and 20. Mid range from Jun1
GLD 154.21 .05% Since Jun1 LH's and HL's. Sym trangle appearing. Dollar down pretty good last two days
and GLD up small. CPI coming and expected to moderate. 148ish is an old level( back to APR2011) to hold.

SPY 135.43 -0.24% Virtually down 7 of 8 days but uptrend since JU1 intact with HH's and HL's.SPY is attempting a new run at 138ish closing high 8 days ago.
TLH 139.48 0.29% Virtually straight up for 8 days. Post yeilds tommorrow
USO 33.12 1.35% Strong 10 day rally.
UUP 22.86 -0.31% Was top of range and weak data here. Euro due for a bounce. Two day reversal thus far.
VXX 13.18 -1.27 down 4% Friday on JPM. New lows
 
actual estimate

Jul 16 08:30 Retail Sales Jun -0.5% 0.4% 0.2% -0.2% BAD
Jul 16 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Jun -0.4% 0.2% 0.1% -0.4%
Jul 16 08:30 Empire Manufacturing Jul 7.4 0.0 3.8 2.3
Jul 16 10:00 Business Inventories May 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4%
Jul 17 08:30 CPI Jun 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% -0.3%

Noe: retail sales is a bad number.

SPY 134-138 now my very short term range/levels.


Earnings reports this morning are decent. Coca-Cola had a good report that included profits
and revenue ahead of expectations. Johnson & Johnson reported profits a penny ahead of expectations,
but revenue was down from last year and below forecasts. The stock is indicated lower.
Goldman Sachs reported well above estimates for profit and revenue although revenue
is down 9% from a year ago; and the stock price is down over 20% from a year ago.

Jun CPI:
This follows -0.3% in May and leaves the index up only 1.7% over the past year.
The drop in prices at the gas pump recently has kept the index from rising. The core rate, which excludes food and energy prices, was up 0.2% for the fourth straight month and is up 2.2% over the past year.
KISS. They wont do QE3 at 2.2% and SPY near highs unless the SHTF.



FXE 122.16 0.06%
FXY 124.22 -0.31%
GLD 153.47 -0.48% Weaker relative to SPY and UUP action. Wasnt buying the QE3 argument anyways.
SPY 136.36 0.69% Down early from Bernanke no help yet. Support at 134. Big reversal. ES up 20 from there.
TLH 138.97 -0.37% Sold off some with OK data and SPY rallying
USO 33.38 0.79% Big rally. Inventories/World tensions/trendPA/correlate with SPY.
Extent of this rally is quite unexpected to me as I had slowdown/demand/deflation hat on.
PA always wins compared to BIAS based on inadequate/incomplete knowlege.
UUP 22.84 -0.09% Down 3 days. Big reversal as SPY caught support at 134ish.
VXX 12.70 -3.64 Continues to make new lows.


After close:
INTC missed the Q2 revenue 13.5 billion vs $13.54 billionexpected.
earning met .54, but bad prognosis for 2012...revise down.
Expects "Revenue up between 3 percent and 5 percent year over year,
down from the prior expectation for high single-digit growth."

.
 
JUL 18:

Indices up close to 1% today

earnings headlines , revenue misses (virtually all), eps beats (virtually all)
are igniting market.
(IBM/EBAY tonight) . Fed managing well. Europe quiet.
Shrug on any weak data(retail,beige).
Upside momentum might accelerate today. But, anything can happen.



Maybe not typical qe1/2
http://seekingalpha.com/article/729411-bernanke-and-fed-options

INTC +3.27%
led gainers on the Dow, up 3.3% after the chip company late
Tuesday lowered its third-quarter forecast by less than some analysts
had FEARED it would. The gain is Intel’s largest by percent.

Have heard several times now "Less than feared" seems to be replacing "
less than expected."

“At this point we don’t see a double-dip recession — we see continued moderate growth,” Bernanke said. End of two day meeting.

No QE3 but standing by...better strategies to grease loans...no recession.


Fed beige book "beige" not too bad and shrugged off.


IBM after the bell.

IBM +$5 after the bell. Missed revenue , beat profit and good 2012 guidance.
EBAY good after the bell.




SPY getting close to top channel trendline.
Looking as if new HH in SPY (10 days ago)
tommorrow. Some May1 bad NFP news supply at SPY 139ish.



China FXI continues to make LH's in a range.

Europe markets mixed.
In Europe Creditor country etfs strong/ debtor etfs are weak for the last 5 days. All weak relative to SPY

FXE 122.11 -0.05% Seems like dont say a thing mode. All major decisions put off for months.

FXY 124.67 0.36%

GLD 153.05 -0.27% Gold holding normal correlation with dollar last 10 days -.64. No inflation in latest monthly reading. No risk on here so far. No qe. No flight. Deflation everywhere except in US indices.

SPY 137.37 0.74% May SPY down UUP up. JUN SPY up UUP down.... JUL both SPY and dollar up.
TLH 138.92 -0.04% bonds in normal 10 day corr with dollar +.34. good - corr with SPy last 10 days. More downside here?


USO 33.69 0.93% 13 days ago euro summit day up huge and stong rally since even with dollar up headwinds most days.
Tensions and inventories lately.

UUP 22.82 -0.09% Since euro summit down 1 day huge, reverse, and up since as SPY/USO has rallied.
Regardless of PA in stocks recent economic data is weak yet relative to euro its ok. Risk-on for
a few days here and looks like more today with all risk assets up overnight
.
VXX 12.85 +1.18 Going back to JUN7 VXX has not rallied when SPY has pulled back. I read rumors that deep pockets are selling VIX front month at will (SPY134) making it the tail that wags the dog.

For reference, this new uptend/swing high (within a larger range of 127-142) began early June after big down May with seemingly benign/unmemorable events. Market turned around and did not look back on fed talk and headlines.

Jun6 phone calls

" Investors finally had something to cheer about yesterday as all the benchmarks ended in the green for the first time in five sessions, spurred by better-than-expected U.S. service sector data. At least for the day, investors were not too bothered by the European crisis while the
Group of Seven (G7) finance ministers and central bank governors had a conference call where they discussed the issue. However, they provided no clear indication regarding the matter and lower-than-average volumes suggested investors were wary of betting big bucks."

JUN7 jawbone/spin.

"Benchmarks recorded their biggest gains this year following news that leaders were considering ways to boost the flagging economies both here and across the Atlantic. The Atlanta Federal Reserve President spoke of further monetary easing if the U.S. economy continues to suffer and the European economic scenario turns worse. Further, there was
more encouragement from the other side of the pool as European officials were reported to be considering plans to rescue Spanish Banks. Investor sentiment has been dampened by lingering economic woes for
quite some time now.

Misc:
Some commodities stong lately grains/gas/oil/fert, some weak gold/copper/steel/coal.
Not a dollar play at all in this short term.
Trading on news/supply/demand to a degree maybe.
Not being treated as entirely riskon/off or 1 big trade.
 
SP500 119 reports. Sales up 2.9% worst since -9% Q3 2009. 42% beat sales estimates.
73% top low earning estimates

European markets down hard last two days over Spain > 7%
Our financials early leaders in this potential down leg/swing.


SPY Thurs. doji at HH(barely) 138ish. Uptrend intact.
Fri. MS earnings miss. Financials in 3rd day of weakness. SPY down 1%. GE revs down 6% Europe/up 6% US. Positive PA
Mon. MCD rare miss. Stay home for meals (CMG hammered) and currency conversion.
Europe is catalyst down. Futures weak overnight. bullish behavior where
down open and then Europe close and push higher all afternoon.
SPY 134 level buying again. This is my level to hold for now.
Down 30 or so handles last few days but strong PA relative to to Spain 7.43% new highs.
Got to expect something fast(ECB buying Spain/Italy bonds) so a headline rally.
VXX up a little over last couple days.



FXE reached a new 2 year low. Yeilds initially fell after summit but have reached new highs
Spain > 7% Italy > 6%
Find the SEP12th deadline article again.

TLH new highs. Sharp move up last few days.
USO 2 day selloff down about $5 to $88 on Europe/overbought.
GLD No safehaven/crisis reponse to Europe as treas. and volatilty and SPY and dollar has.
Bad data/ DEFLATION/dollar up opposing forces. Squeezing tight here.
PA with down bias short term and longer term.
FXY virtually up 10 straight days after last BOJ insufficient easing and risk off recently.
UUP new highs

Breifing.com has Fridays 1st GDP estimate at .3% down from 1.2%(GS) , down from 1.9% original.
Thats gotta be wrong and would be a shocker.

*NOTE. Find FRED graph of estimated vs. actiul GDP. Actual is very volatile and estimate very smooth.
Cuts both ways. 3% GDP estimates as we entered into 2008 recession/meltdown.
I think the estimate will be inline and a non-event.

Durable Goods Thurs 7/26 expect =.-3% down from -.1% and +.7% last 2 prior months.
Initial claims also on 7/26.
This and next week most SP500 campanies will be in.

NFP again soon.




STLD 9% YOY revenue miss.
FXI weak 7.6% GDP 5-6% is severe recession ala 2008 for them.

VALE/RIO/BHP/CLF........X/STLD/AKS horrible.
 
US indices down 3 days. SPY has some late May and Early JUN swing highs as support at 133 along with Ma50
but after bell aapl took out all thes on indices.
The uptrend from JUN1 is no longer intact. The HH was suspect and now looking for where the LL settles.


Market close pre-AAPL earnings
ES down 1% today. 6/4 steeper bottom channel trendline and 6/25 shorter term bottom channel trendline
clearly broken. Last 2 days traded below ma(50) but did not close below.

Notes , ZNsept12 up from 134'265 to 135'075 .
3 day range of ZN during this sellof in stocks is 134'160 to 135'125 . 57 ticks for $891/contract
ES 3 day range is 1372.50 to 1329.75 or 42.75 ticks = $2138
CHECK OUT SOME HISTORY ON THIS RELATIONSHIP and how/if it is changing. atr/vol etc.
Treasury Yields Tumble To New All-Time Lows

********************
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/24/2012 - 13:50
Convexity Japanification
Despite some early angst, Treasury yields have been crushed lower today.
Down 7bps from their European close levels, 30Y is trading with a 2.45%
handle for the first time ever and 10Y now with a 1.39% handle. Both all-time
record lows as the 2Y auctions with a 4x bid-to-cover as 2s5s flattens to
almost five year lows as the Fed's ZIRP and Europe's NIRP has pushed investors
to front-run into preservation of capital instead of pushing them out on
the risk spectrum. For those who care (instead of preferring to listen to
dividend-stock-touting talking heads), 10Y TSYs have plenty of room to run
if rates keep falling (15% upside if Japanification takes hold)
- which prompts the question - just what is the interest expense convexity
for the Government if rates were ever to rise from here?
****************

Quick summary where Europes at:
Europe Smashes All Market Records On Its Way To Total Insolvency
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/24/2012 - 12:00

Bond Equity Markets Germany Greece Italy Reality Switzerland
Spain's IBEX equity index closed at Euro-era lows today having dropped
over 10% in the last 3 days (crushing the hopes of the
afternoon post-short-sale-ban squeeze yesterday). This leaves IBEX
down over 30% for the year (and Italy down over 18% YTD). Add to that;
inverted long-end curves in Spain (and almost Italy), all-time record
high short- and long-term spreads for Spanish debt and euro-era record
high yields, record wide CDS-Cash basis, dramatic short-end weakness
in Italy, new low negative rates in Switzerland (-46bps) and Germany
(-7bps), and EURUSD at its lowest since June 2010 at 1.2059.
But apart from that, the EU Summit seems to have done the
trick nicely. Financials have been crushed in credit-land as
subs notably underperform seniors and HY and IG credit continues
to lead the equity markets lower in reality. Meanwhile, remember
Greece? 30Y GGBs have dropped almost 20% in price in the last
few days and have closed at all-time record low closing price
at just EUR11.55!! S'all good though - where's Whitney?

Greek PM says in "Great Depression"
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/22/us-greece-clinton-depression-idUSBRE86L07L20120722


EUR 120.64 down -70 or .59% ( some of this is bad apple)
Some pertinent Europe macro events for this week:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/742951-forex-in-nervous-consolidation-correction-pending

FXY Yen up a bit on a tear approaching the JUN1 risk reversal rally.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/738...falls-toward-5-month-lows-vs-yen?source=yahoo

GLD 5 days virtually no change with dollar strong market week.

UUP Strong.

VXX up 21% in 3 days.

Now with AAPL miss PA seems to be aligning better with negative news.
Now is time to watch levels and look for bounce but,
I cant think of a reason to bounce except for central bank action.
Fed meets JUl31/AUG1 so maybe the upcoming bounce will be frontrunning hope.

Europe need ECB/ESM/ESFS/LTRO(to fund bond buys) and/or other programs to buy bonds
or at least say they will soon.

My opinion is a retest of JUN1 levels, which is unchanged for the year, followed by a LL
in the larger timeframe 127-142 range.
 
GOLD up strong(1580-1605) new 10 day high overnight with EUR/USD. up 90 pips.
Dollar up stong last few days down -.5% today. Maybe QE Hilsenrath statement,
but my sentiment to Gold recently was wrong and todays bar and JUN1 $100 range(on a rumor) show how
strong US central bank action may be towards gold.
Some Europe jawbone about bank license for rescue fund.

As I read it Hilsenrath was specific that "it" was coming next week?
Check into this.


Pertinent info from Zerohedge.com
*******************************
New home sales plunge 8.4% MoM on expectations
of a rise of 0.7%, This is the first miss since October
of last year and the biggest miss of expectations since October 2010.
This is the biggest absolute drop since January with the actual
number of new homes sold, not annualized,
in June was 33,000 - of which a mere 1,000 was in the NorthEast.
Median home prices also fell appreciably.
********************
Europe is once again scrambling by clutching at broken straws and juggling dead ends.
To wit: instead of actually proposing a realistic solution to its massive debt overhang,
the ECB's Ewald Nowotny "said there are arguments in favor of giving Europe’s
rescue fund a banking license, reviving the debate on bolstering its firepower
as leaders face the prospect of a full-scale Spanish bailout." As a reminder,
this is an absolute DEAD END that Germany and the ECB have both repeatedly
rejected as implementation would confirm just how hollow the European gutted
shadow banking market (you can't have shadow banking without credible collateral).
Further slamming the Nowotny comment was Daiwa which called the Nowotny
statetment a Red Herring and that "remarks that ECB council member sees
arguments for giving bailout fund banking license "look to be just noise,"
Grant Lewis, head of research at Daiwa Capital Markets Europe, says in
client note. Comments appear to have been off the cuff and purely personal
opinion; such a move remains “highly improbable,” as Germany and ECB
“implacably opposed” to this. Finally Daiwa adds that markets will
soon focus again on fact that if ESM can’t be activated in early
autumn, there’s no money available to bail out Spain, “let alone Italy."

*********************
UK preliminary Q2 GDP printed -0.7% on
expectations of a -0.2% decline, following a -0.3% drop in Q1,
cementing the country's double dip collapse. Reuters explains:
"The Office for National Statistics said Britain's gross domestic
product fell 0.7 percent in the second quarter, the sharpest
fall since early 2009 and a bigger drop than any of the economists
surveyed in a Reuters poll last week had expected. The figures
confirmed that Britain is mired in its second recession since
the financial crisis, with the economy shrinking for a third
consecutive quarter.
Earlier this month the BoE has announced another 50 billion pound


FXE 120.85 0.69%
FXY 125.68 0.02%
GLD 155.67 1.40% Hisenrath rumor up almost 1% vs. dollar.
SPY 133.96 0.02% AAPL drag.
TLH 140.53 -0.01% flat
USO 33.21 0.18%
UUP 22.98 -0.52% Gold and dollar stand out today

Changing mind on this uptrend over. Good PA vs. AAPL.
I see a long entry at this level of SPY risking $1 down (133ish support). Dont expect a swing to HH but potential for $2-3 up.

See reaction to durable goods tommorrow 1st.
Maybe QE hope for a week or so outweighs DurG , GDP Friday
and other news.
 
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