total implosion of the u.s. real estate market

[Dr. Zhivodka]

Developers are always over hung ...every slow down...it's always the same story. They're the last to know.

The last bubble in the early 90's we bought some inventory in Steamboat Springs CO, Irwin, Swan Valley area of ID. May do something similar this time. We shall see.

Quote from Chood:

I have first-hand knowledge of large developers in Orlando, Galveston TX, Myrtle Beach SC, and Gatlinburg TN imploding, gutting purchasers of deposits. Resort properties in locations which aren't shite holes or crap towns. Pure fantasy to believe US real estate isn't in the crapper. That tan man with a plan ain't out of the woods yet, in other words.

 

[vacation]

Quote from moo:
Might be, but it does not show in the statistics yet.

Yes it does.

"So what"?? Are you joking, or just totally clueless?
So what, if Americans can't afford their homes and have to dump them on the market?

Net negative worth has absolutely nothing to do with whether or not you can make your payments. There are no margin calls on houses.

So what if Americans realize they can't spend all of their income, and have to start saving too?

Are you saying that would be a bad thing?

So what if the bursting housing bubble results in a recession?

Pretty much. I have lived through several recessions. None of them was a big deal. Most never noticed and if you ask most regular folks today when the big recessions were, they'd have no clue.

So what if the stock market might just tank a bit when investors finally realize the dire situation? [/B]

That would be great. Better entry points for the long term.

 

[dandxg]

Quote from Dr. Zhivodka:

Developers are always over hung ...every slow down...it's always the same story. They're the last to know.

The last bubble in the early 90's we bought some inventory in Steamboat Springs CO, Irwin, Swan Valley area of ID. May do something similar this time. We shall see.

And how did you do on those properties. Appreciate nicely I presume?

 

[Enfinity]

That's real. The way an Indian friend put it, "they priced everyone who isn't white out of this town." He built his multi-million $ home in Burr Ridge a couple miles down the road after looking at property prices in Hinsdale.



PS - Chicago residential is in terrible shape too...

http://online.wsj.com/public/resour...=540&ch=000010001100001000000&ref=patrick.net

Quote from Poole:

wow if thats true makes los angeles look cheap

 

[Pa(b)st Prime]

Quote from Chood:

........, and Gatlinburg TN imploding, gutting purchasers of deposits. Resort properties in locations which aren't shite holes or crap towns. Pure fantasy to believe US real estate isn't in the crapper. That tan man with a plan ain't out of the woods yet, in other words.

Gatlinburg Tennessee? Well excuuuuse me! I didn't mean to imply that values in such notoriously pricey locations as Gatinburg TN. were uneffected. Some folks who used to live in Gatinburg are moving to East Hampton and Branson.

As a trader the point I'm trying to make is RE is like stocks. Some are getting shit canned (working class, middle income areas) while some high flyers (Manhattan, SF, Chicago) are climbing that wall of worry to new highs. Personally I think the high end shit's going to cave too. A stronger dollar going forward will take a big premium out of RE. But what if the dollar doesn't rebound? What if the great currency/debt collapse is upon us? We already see commodity prices. If gold's 800 then what's beach front in Laguna Beach? How many of those puppies in existence? 400? The rest of you? Go bid on that foreclosure in Stockton. Welcome to Brazil.

 

[moo]

Quote from vacation:

Yes it does.

Where? Any links?

I agree that a recession will be great, even necessary, but for most people it will be a disaster.

 

[the gardner]

ALL THE DATA SUGGESTS THAT ITS JUST GETTING WORSE AND WORSE.....ALL THE HIGH END MARKETS ARE GETTING HIT .....ALL EXPERIENCING LOWER AND LOWER VOLUME......HIGHER INVENTORY.....LOWER PRICES

SOME SAY IT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 2010 TO 2013

 

[Tums]

Quote from the gardner:

the vast market of real estate..exceeding 20 trillion is collapsing

some forecast price drops of 50 percent in markets like vegas and miami and parts of cali

50% price drop is still 100% more expensive than a few years ago.

 

[the gardner]

ASK CHUCK PRINCE ABOUT REAL ESTATE TODAY.......THE IMPLOSION WILL TAKE DOWN MANY OTHERS BEFORE ITS OVER

 

[Adobian]

Quote from the gardner:

ALL THE DATA SUGGESTS THAT ITS JUST GETTING WORSE AND WORSE.....ALL THE HIGH END MARKETS ARE GETTING HIT .....ALL EXPERIENCING LOWER AND LOWER VOLUME......HIGHER INVENTORY.....LOWER PRICES

SOME SAY IT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 2010 TO 2013

CNBC has just finished showing this one investor making big bucks on homes of 1M+ ... like buying $2.3M and selling at $4.6M. He sounded like he is making several deals at the same time, all making $300K to $2M+ each.