Topsteptrader

[ScalperJoe]

Now that we're on the topic of an "edge" here's a good article from Moneyshow.com:

http://www.moneyshow.com/articles.asp?aid=videotranstr-25595

"It wasn’t something that they conjured or hoped, it was something invented by hopefully thousands of other people that have come before them."

"So, find something that fits your personality; that is the number one thing, because you have to, whatever it is, be able to repeat it."

And here's another:

http://www.investopedia.com/article...tal-importance-defining-your-trading-edge.asp

"List the most common methods you use to find new opportunities, entry and exit positions and manage risk."

"It doesn’t have to be elaborate to fulfill its purpose."

And yet another:

http://en.tradimo.com/learn/trading-strategies/trading-with-an-edge/

"...a set of conditions that when present, give a higher probability of a trade working than not working."

 

[londonkid]

Actually, it's only on ET where traders use the term "edge" as if it's some type of magical or mystical attribute, lol!

Having an "edge" is simply the ability to identify a trade with a higher probability of outcome where the expected return is justified by the risk. Usually, this occurs by being in synch with the market in terms of price action. Discipline comes by limiting trades to those which provide you with this "edge" while managing risk to prevent the losses from swelling.

You can have all the discipline and edge in the world, but without enough equity the rewards (profits) will seem elusive.

So you can keep promoting all of the "funded traders" who obviously have an "edge" and have learned the "discipline" to pass a combine by trading within strict parameters, but WITHOUT ADEQUATE EQUITY on DAY 11, those traders have very low odds of making any money.

If you aren't able to accept that basic concept, then there really isn't any point of discussing this further. Just build your $4,500 cushion after passing the LTP, and you'll have a greater probability of taking a check than someone who passed a 30k combine and LTP, EVEN if that person had an "edge" to find profitable trades.

only on ET can someone who has no edge attempt to lecture someone who actually has an edge on what an edge is and how to define it.

only on ET can someone continue to press the point that if you start with more money you have a greater chance of success.

only on ET can someone quote 'the money show' or 'investopedia'. I still cant get over the Cramer worship lol.

it's the height of stupidity and its gold.

 

[ScalperJoe]

only on ET can someone who has no edge attempt to lecture someone who actually has an edge on what an edge is and how to define it.

only on ET can someone continue to press the point that if you start with more money you have a greater chance of success.

only on ET can someone quote 'the money show' or 'investopedia'. I still cant get over the Cramer worship lol.

it's the height of stupidity and its gold.

Only on ET can someone accuse another of having "no edge" when they don't even know the person they're accusing and have no idea of their entire past trading history.

Only on ET can someone continue to promote "funded traders" as if they're making real money when in reality they simply passed a simulator account.

Only on ET can someone respond to links without even reviewing the information provided within those links.

Only on ET can someone use labeling such as "Cramer worship" when it has no basis in fact whatsoever.

By the way, how's that LTP coming along?

 

[londonkid]

By the way, how's that LTP coming along?

Thanks for taking an interest Joe. The LTP is going well. I will have some news for you soon.

 

[shiko2000]

It takes time but londonkid will understand it too. It is obvious the more ammunition one has the longer one can last in gun fight. Livermore went bust few times. I guess he was a decent trader, no?
I read those Market Wizards books. Most of those Wizards would not make it through Combine, I would not even mention live account.
You might remember, most of them blew quite a few accounts before odds turned their way.

Yes shiko, you obviously understand it, since you went through it, and thus you have the personal experience of it. Unfortunately, many traders have trouble accepting the correlation between equity and success.

I'm not saying that a guy who takes the 100k/150k WILL succeed. Those who pass the combine and build equity can still "blow up" just as a hedge fund with $100 million in AUM can "blow up" their investors' funds.

Like I said, it's not about absolutes, it's about probabilities. Top Step provides a model where the 100k/150k combine traders who build enough equity on Days 1-10 have a higher probability of taking a check.

They offer the sim account for all levels, so that's a good start, but eventually one will have to work their way up to the bigger combines.

 

[londonkid]

It takes time but londonkid will understand it too. It is obvious the more ammunition one has the longer one can last in gun fight. Livermore went bust few times. I guess he was a decent trader, no?
I read those Market Wizards books. Most of those Wizards would not make it through Combine.

Shiko, I do agree that the larger account you start with the greater your chances of success. As you say it's obvious. Only on ET could this discussion actually happen.

Personally I believe the main reason traders fail to be successful is that they do not have a decent edge. It is not because they don't have enough capital. That's my opinion and I am very comfortable having opinions against the herd, that after all is how you make money in this business.

The majority of people who fail are not even scratch traders (where you get a 10 day combine refund). Instead of a 3% max draw if you gave them a 30% max draw they would still lose.

 

[ScalperJoe]

It takes time but londonkid will understand it too. It is obvious the more ammunition one has the longer one can last in gun fight. Livermore went bust few times. I guess he was a decent trader, no?
I read those Market Wizards books. Most of those Wizards would not make it through Combine, I would not even mention live account.
You might remember, most of them blew quite a few accounts before odds turned their way.

londonkid understands it otherwise he would not have traded the 150k combine. For whatever reason, he is surprised by the discussion, yet remains under the impression that "piker" accounts (those who do not build enough equity on Days 1-10) can still utilize the scale up plan because of the "main reason" being their "decent edge." I'm saying that is a faulty assumption and simply incorrect, so there's a difference of opinion.

Those who passed the strict parameters of any of the combines have an "edge" or they wouldn't have passed the combine in the first place!

Nobody knows the exact stats, except for the trader, TopStep and the backer. But you don't even have to ask Mike about the live accounts, and you cannot expect him to reveal information that the backer claims is private. You simply have to review the combine stats and generate your own conclusions.

For example, if you get the emails from Top Step, then you can review the combine stats of the last six funded traders of the past week or so. Their average daily P&L is the key metric. The gains are quite consistent, providing for decent stats, usually in the $200 to $400 average per day. One had only an $18/day average.

The point is the guy with an $18/day average, even though he might have an "edge" to generate the profits, only has 10 days build the equity in the live account, which then becomes his maximum allowable draw. If risk is scaled down to half, then $9 x 10 days is $90 of equity on day 11. Does this provide high odds of taking a check, EVEN if the main reason is his "edge"?

You can start with the smaller combines, and even if you pass, the odds are you will be sent BACK to the combine. So you might as well trade in simulator, and then when you've found your "edge" start with the 50k and see if the equity is enough on Day 11 to start scaling up. If not, then trade the 100k/150k combine, as that will provide the highest odds of capitalizing on the scale up plan, NOT because of the main reason being your "edge" but due to the fact you will have built more EQUITY.

 

[ScalperJoe]

Shiko, I do agree that the larger account you start with the greater your chances of success. As you say it's obvious. Only on ET could this discussion actually happen.

Personally I believe the main reason traders fail to be successful is that they do not have a decent edge. It is not because they don't have enough capital. That's my opinion and I am very comfortable having opinions against the herd, that after all is how you make money in this business.

Then why do you claim that the "decent traders" with smaller accounts will "scale up" with that account, if you agree "the larger account you start with the greater chances of success?" That is pure doublespeak.

As Shiko pointed out, many traders took multiple combines to eventually pass and trade the live account.

Your opinion is "against the herd" however I'll bet if you saw all the live accounts of the backer, the ones who are taking checks are the accounts with the most equity.

 

[ScalperJoe]

Thanks for taking an interest Joe. The LTP is going well. I will have some news for you soon.

Ok sounds good.

 

[londonkid]

londonkid understands it otherwise he would not have traded the 150k combine. For whatever reason, he is surprised by the discussion

I am not surprised by the discussion. The lack of brainpower evident on trading forums is the reason I am not surprised.

yet remains under the impression that "piker" accounts (those who do not build enough equity on Days 1-10) can still utilize the scale up plan because of the "main reason" being their "decent edge." I'm saying that is a faulty assumption and simply incorrect, so there's a difference of opinion.

No No No. You have used faulty logic to twist what I said to something else. I said the main reason people don't take a cheque from TST is they trade without a decent edge what you are citing me a saying above is totally different.#logicfailagain

A decent trader will work with the max drawdown he has available to him and size accordingly. Having a decent edge means you do not suffer long periods of drawdown although it can happen over any small sample.

For example, if you get the emails from Top Step, then you can review the combine stats of the last six funded traders of the past week or so. Their average daily P&L is the key metric. The gains are quite consistent, providing for decent stats, usually in the $200 to $400 average per day. One had only an $18/day average.

The point is the guy with an $18/day average, even though he might have an "edge" to generate the profits, only has 10 days build the equity in the live account, which then becomes his maximum allowable draw. If risk is scaled down to half, then $9 x 10 days is $90 of equity on day 11. Does this provide high odds of taking a check, EVEN if the main reason is his "edge"?

You are pulling out an outlier and trying to base an argument on that! lol. If you cant see that the main reason the guy could only make $18/day average is that he had a very poor edge then there is something wrong with you. Oh, I forgot your argument is that he needs more capital!

You can start with the smaller combines, and even if you pass, the odds are you will be sent BACK to the combine. So you might as well trade in simulator, and then when you've found your "edge" start with the 50k and see if the equity is enough on Day 11 to start scaling up. If not, then trade the 100k/150k combine, as that will provide the highest odds of capitalizing on the scale up plan, NOT because of the main reason being your "edge" but due to the fact you will have built more EQUITY.

Of course the odds are that you will be sent back to the combine. Surviving in the live account is not easy, most will fail. I agree it's better to take a larger combine if you are confident you can pass it, that's why I took the largest combine and passed it first time.

Actually as your thinking errors have been laid out on this thread Joe I can see why you are not progressing and keep failing combines.

What do you think the main reason is behind why you keep failing combines Joe?

I suspect you think it's because you need more capital (in a proposition where no trader is required to put up any capital!). You have to make 6% over 10 days of trading with a 2% daily loss limit and 3% max drawdown.

Here's a clue, the main reason you cannot pass it Joe is that you are trading without a decent edge. If you are not even scratching and getting a refund then there is absolutely no edge, you may as well be flipping a coin.

Honestly if you are not even a scratch trader more money is not going to help you as it's not the main reason you are failing.