Exactly.
Then I met the target twice but hit trailing stop before the end of Combine after hit $1500 first time.
Were I to trade according older pre trailing stop rules I would have made it then too.
They make rules.
Topsteptrader
- Thread starter deaddog
- Start date
Then I met the target twice but hit trailing stop before the end of Combine after hit $1500 first time.
Were I to trade according older pre trailing stop rules I would have made it then too.
They make rules.
I am currently $235 above profit target but still have 5 days to trade and need one more winning day and stay above $1500 to qualify. Must be focused.
how that 45% winning days is calculated out of 10 days ? it's a fractional number and not a round number
I am on 20 days Combine. TST grandfathered me. so, I am 10 winners 5 losers now. Must have one more winning day and I will have 55% win rate locked.
On 10 days I think 45% might be 4 days win rate.
that's 40% , why they mention 45 % minimum ?
It is funny but there is no way mathematically to have 45% with 10 trading days. I guess TST must have own standards regarding this. 4 win days out of 10 days is 40%. so, I guess 45% might be 5 win days or 50%. You should talk to them obviously.
Some idiot (let's call him Special Friend) mumbled:
The bottom line is, TST will make less money with the continuous and the math bears that out.
Only people with advanced Alzhaimer or those who never finished elementary school would say such a thing. Since I like to educate the needy, a simple example:
1. Let's say it takes 3 normal Combines for me to pass it and I get 2 rollovers, so my cost and TST's profit is zero. Zilch, nada...
2. For Einstein it takes 3 months of CC to pass the Combine. Since there is no rollover just a monthly fee, his cost is 3 months of fees (see explanation below), that can be between $300 to 1000 depending on the CC chosen.
So clearly, zero profit is more than $1000, according to our Special Friend. TST isn't stupid, they are not going to make new rules that makes them LESS profit...
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"Enter the Continuous Combine and you'll have unlimited trading days to reach Objective (adhere to the Rules and meet the Profit Target). Restart account anytime for $100. Monthly recurring subscription (non-refundable) until canceled (minimum of 2 months, unless Combine Objective achieved within the first month)."
So according to the NEW rules, if one passes the Combine using the CC for 3 months, he doesn't get back anything for passing the Combine so his cost is 3 months of fees.
The bottom line is, TST will make less money with the continuous and the math bears that out.
Only people with advanced Alzhaimer or those who never finished elementary school would say such a thing. Since I like to educate the needy, a simple example:
1. Let's say it takes 3 normal Combines for me to pass it and I get 2 rollovers, so my cost and TST's profit is zero. Zilch, nada...
2. For Einstein it takes 3 months of CC to pass the Combine. Since there is no rollover just a monthly fee, his cost is 3 months of fees (see explanation below), that can be between $300 to 1000 depending on the CC chosen.
So clearly, zero profit is more than $1000, according to our Special Friend. TST isn't stupid, they are not going to make new rules that makes them LESS profit...
--------------------------------
"Enter the Continuous Combine and you'll have unlimited trading days to reach Objective (adhere to the Rules and meet the Profit Target). Restart account anytime for $100. Monthly recurring subscription (non-refundable) until canceled (minimum of 2 months, unless Combine Objective achieved within the first month)."
So according to the NEW rules, if one passes the Combine using the CC for 3 months, he doesn't get back anything for passing the Combine so his cost is 3 months of fees.
Some idiot (let's call him Special Friend) mumbled:
The bottom line is, TST will make less money with the continuous and the math bears that out.
Only people with advanced Alzhaimer or those who never finished elementary school would say such a thing. Since I like to educate the needy, a simple example:
1. Let's say it takes 3 normal Combines for me to pass it and I get 2 rollovers, so my cost and TST's profit is zero. Zilch, nada...
2. For Einstein it takes 3 months of CC to pass the Combine. Since there is no rollover just a monthly fee, his cost is 3 months of fees (see explanation below), that can be between $300 to 1000 depending on the CC chosen.
So clearly, zero profit is more than $1000, according to our Special Friend. TST isn't stupid, they are not going to make new rules that makes them LESS profit...
--------------------------------
"Enter the Continuous Combine and you'll have unlimited trading days to reach Objective (adhere to the Rules and meet the Profit Target). Restart account anytime for $100. Monthly recurring subscription (non-refundable) until canceled (minimum of 2 months, unless Combine Objective achieved within the first month)."
So according to the NEW rules, if one passes the Combine using the CC for 3 months, he doesn't get back anything for passing the Combine so his cost is 3 months of fees.
Honestly, this guy is giving all pizza delivery drivers a bad name. When you do data analysis, or in this case, cash flow analysis, you don't analyze a single data point. You use terms like expected value and expected cash flows. I already did the math before but I'll do it again and I'll walk Pekelo through it slowly so he actually learns something. Rather then using yourself as an example, you use what we call a sample. A sample is a set of data taken from a given population. For the purpose of this exercise we will assume a normal distribution that way we can assume that the properties of the sample are similar to that of the population data.
First we determine the percentage of people that we think qualify for free rollovers. Now the hysterical part of this is, out little friend Pekelo was on this very thread not long talking about how very few people will ever get the free rollover. I think he estimated around 10% or so which would only make my numbers better!!!! However, to be fair and honest here, I think the number of traders who qualify for a free rollover is higher then the 10% Pekelo suggested but I'll run the numbers both ways. I personally think it's around 40%. That means from a random sample of say 30 people for a given 10 day combine, about 12 on avg will qualify for a free rollover, 18 will not and will either have to ante up again or give up.
So the way we derive the expected value of future cash flows for TST is by solving for the expected value and multiplying it by the cost of the 10 day combine. When you calculate expected value, the probabilities that you use must sum to 1.0 or 100 if you will. For example, if there is a 90% probability that Pekelo is mentally challenged, that means there is a also a 10% chance he is not. The 10 and the 90 sum to a 100.
Now on to TST we go. In any given month, a trader can do at most two 10 day combines. It does not matter if one trader does one ten day and another does another ten or one trader alone does two 10 day combines, the data represents individual random trials.
So based on my 40% probability estimate, we take this number and multiply it times the value of the 10 day combine ($175). We also have to take the complement which which will equal zero which is why I did not show it on the last post but I will here for the purposes of Pekelo's education.
($175 (.60) + $0 (.40)) + ($175 (.60) + $0 (.40)) = E(X)
So from the perspective of TST, they are collecting .60 times 175 and nothing on the other 40%. Remember that 40% is getting a free rollover so their cash flow is zero. We added the equation a 2nd time because there are two possible 10 day combines per month. This gives us E(X) or the expected value of X. X being the cash flows TST expects to earn based on random trials and a 40% success rate by traders in getting the free rollover. The zero's drop out and we are left with : 175 (.60) + 175 (.60) = 105 + 105 = 210
That is the expected cash flow from the non continuous combine. For the continuous combine the math is much easier. As Pekelo pointed out it's a flat $150 fee whether they pass or not and it's good for the entire month or two 10 day combines. So TST earns a flat $150 on this. We can solve this of course. We take 150 times the probability which is 1.00 or 100% (since they are guaranteed to earn this) and we get E(X) to be $150.
Now we compare the two results. With the non-continuous their expected cash flows are $210 on average over time. In this sample we have super trader delivery drivers who get 100 free roll overs in a row and we also get the guy who has paid for 30 straight combines and never qualifies and never gives up. And of course inbetween those extremes we have everything inbetween. Since TST expects to earn $60 more per month on avg over time with the non continuous vs the continuous, they should stick with the non continuous.
So why are they are even doing the continuous. Obviously they feel they will attract more traders. The increase in traders will offset the lower return per trader. But if you were a consultant to TST and they hired you to do a cash flow analysis on this problem, this is how you would do it. Then when you were done, you would order a pizza and have Pekelo deliver it to you and stiff him on the tip.
And as promised, let's run the numbers using Pekelo's 10% success rate:
($175 (.90) + $0 (.10) + ($175 (.90) + $0 (.10) =E(X)
$157.50 + $157.50 = $315
$315 is > then $150
So using Pekelo's much more pessimistic success rate, TST will earn, on avg, over time, $165 more on the non continuous combine vs the continuous.
Now where is that large Pepperoni I ordered!
($175 (.90) + $0 (.10) + ($175 (.90) + $0 (.10) =E(X)
$157.50 + $157.50 = $315
$315 is > then $150
So using Pekelo's much more pessimistic success rate, TST will earn, on avg, over time, $165 more on the non continuous combine vs the continuous.
Now where is that large Pepperoni I ordered!
An exact scratch day ($0) doesn't count, so the percentage isn't always calculated out of a total of 10 days.