Topsteptrader

[onemoreshot]

For years on end, traders made money in stocks and stock index futures. CTAs made millions and tens of millions yearly trading ES in the past.

But now the ranges have dried to <10pt intraday due to direct governments manipulation. Nobody foresaw the government making stock markets a manipulative tool for fed policy.

Another six months of this and guess what? Stock markets will implode inside of themselves. Meanwhile, other markets will continue on. CL posted a 200+ cent trend day lower today, of which I caught +41 cents early. Had I opted to focus on CL alone and nix ES, would have aced that combine with ease.

Which is precisely what we'll do next time around

While I'm not there yet but I've seen it in action, the best traders make money regardless of the market action because they adapt on the fly. What are you going to do when CL stops with 200 tick trends. A lot of people who were used to CL volatility awhile back can't seem to trade it with it's volatility now. I used to trade with a guy who said if the market is in a 5 tick range you can make good money, just buy the 2's and sell the 4's all day long with some size.

 

[austinp]

#1: While I'm not there yet but I've seen it in action, the best traders make money regardless of the market action because they adapt on the fly.

#2: What are you going to do when CL stops with 200 tick trends. A lot of people who were used to CL volatility awhile back can't seem to trade it with it's volatility now.

#3: I used to trade with a guy who said if the market is in a 5 tick range you can make good money, just buy the 2's and sell the 4's all day long with some size.

#1: adapt on the fly = change, do something else, go somewhere else. No retail traders paying $3+ or more per turn make any money in the ES when ranges are <10 dead. Only the message-board paper traders pretend to. In real life a trader can either wait out the crud times for opportune times, or move elsewhere. You don't have that luxury of time in a 10-day limited combine, which is what this thread discusses.

#2: the CL ain't making 200-cent ranges routinely, more like 100-cent which is fine. Nobody who traded CL successfully when vol was dead will struggle when vol and ranges are wide. Are you serious? That's like expanding the NBA basketball rim 12" wider and 12" lower to the ground.

#3: I have no good response for that. It is totally irrelevant to this conversation and thread.

 

[onemoreshot]

#1: adapt on the fly = change, do something else, go somewhere else. No retail traders paying $3+ or more per turn make any money in the ES when ranges are <10 dead. Only the message-board paper traders pretend to. In real life a trader can either wait out the crud times for opportune times, or move elsewhere. You don't have that luxury of time in a 10-day limited combine, which is what this thread discusses.

#2: the CL ain't making 200-cent ranges routinely, more like 100-cent which is fine. Nobody who traded CL successfully when vol was dead will struggle when vol and ranges are wide. Are you serious? That's like expanding the NBA basketball rim 12" wider and 12" lower to the ground.

#3: I have no good response for that. It is totally irrelevant to this conversation and thread.

So do bank and prop traders just go into the office and sit on their hands all summer when historically volume is low? I haven't been there but I highly doubt it. A 10 point range in the ES is 40 ticks a day...you're telling me that nobody paying 3 bucks a turn can make any money with a 40 tick range? As a trader you need to be able to adapt and make money in any market and any trading environment. I see it as a major excuse to complain about results because the "market" isn't right. The market is what the market is, it's the traders job to adapt to it.

 

[onemoreshot]

Only the message-board paper traders pretend to.

I'd have to say that the majority of people messing about with combines are the above type of traders.

 

[austinp]

So do bank and prop traders just go into the office and sit on their hands all summer when historically volume is low? I haven't been there but I highly doubt it. A 10 point range in the ES is 40 ticks a day...you're telling me that nobody paying 3 bucks a turn can make any money with a 40 tick range? As a trader you need to be able to adapt and make money in any market and any trading environment. I see it as a major excuse to complain about results because the "market" isn't right. The market is what the market is, it's the traders job to adapt to it.

When five or six of ten ES sessions are INSIDE of 10pts, i.e. less than 10 pts, such as six or seven points of straight chop... and you have just those ten days there to make a lofty profit objective, you will fail.

What prop traders pay 50-cents per turn do during 6pt chop range sessions is another story entirely.

 

[austinp]

I'd have to say that the majority of people messing about with combines are the above type of traders.

I'd opine the majority of aliases who joined this board in 2014 are exactly that, too.

 

[austinp]

And THAT is why these guys without edges are never going to make money. Oh sure there will be hot streaks. But sooner or later, the market will change and they will grind it all away and say well, if the market would have kept doing what it did do, that wouldn't have happened. But that always will happen and such is life.

Now let's revisit this specific conversation here. I agree 1,000% that anyone without an edge cannot succeed. No question about it.

Tuesday night was day eight of a ten-day combine effort. My stats are posted for review with blotter on that evening. The math is...

CL: four sessions P&L = $2,937 net
ES: eight sessions P&L = (456) net
----------------------------------------
total combined net = +$2,501

So first and foremost, we ain't talking about net-loss here. I booked +$2,501 net gains after $5 per contract turned costs in a controlled environment. The market did not know and did not care whether the orders I clicked in were sim or cash. The market does not differentiate. It just fills orders.

Now that we have the fact of profitable edge established, let's move on...

 

[austinp]

... with two sessions left to go, it was a pass or fail situation for me. I needed both sessions profitable to hit 60% daily win rate and I needed +$499 (or greater) net gains to finish, of which about all of that had to be from ES in order to take that symbol positive. Further CL gains were of no use because I opted to trade ES for sake of high liquidity.

Wednesday day nine: I started out +$212.50 in ES and then tightening chop for the balance of that 6pt true-range session never let me get in the black again. Once I went red, it was a do or die situation to get black. A red day made it impossible to finish +60% daily win rate.

So with the arbitrary 10-day curfew, there was no time left on the clock to simply tread water and coast.

**

On the other hand, if that combine effort was open-ended for deadlines to meet requirements, I could have ceased trading that day and simply waited until Thursday. Which was highly tradable, as it turned out. Or waited until today. Or next week, or whenever.

See the difference? No deadline limit to perform = a relaxed approach. Does anyone think it's reasonable to assume that someday eventually I might have made it to at least +$1 net profit in ES and $3,000+ in CL at the pace established?

No deadline time limit to complete the requirements makes it cake for those who have a true trading edge. End of story

 

[Maverick74]

So Austin, are you going to do a continuous combine now? Woulda, coulda, shoulda doesn't matter in the real world. You seem to think the continuous combine is going to be a cake walk. So are we going to be able to see this play out?

 

[austinp]

So Austin, are you going to do a continuous combine now? Woulda, coulda, shoulda doesn't matter in the real world. You seem to think the continuous combine is going to be a cake walk. So are we going to be able to see this play out?

I definitely will, yes. CL only this time. Should have done that last time, 10-day was more than enough without ES but we'll take advantage of the open-end next time.