Topsteptrader
- Thread starter deaddog
- Start date
CL: four sessions P&L = $2,937 net
ES: eight sessions P&L = (456) net
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total combined net = +$2,501
This stretch has included the most godawful dead ES sessions in several years. Three of eight had decent movement and range, five of eight sucked worse than anyone has endured since sometime in 2006.
When ES moves thru normal ranges like yesterday's very pedestrian 14pt span, it is nicely tradable. When it chops a 6 - 8pt dead range all day, nobody makes money there. Just the way timing of this combined happened to luck out, or "unluck" as it were
Graphs attached shows daily performance stats and gross gains before $5 commissions. One thing I do differently now than years past and quite frankly even a few months ago... aggressive stops management. If a trade doesn't work right away, I'm quick to scratch it out. The next trade that works well will come along soon enough.
That approach does squelch out some good trades, but also avoids a lot of losses which would overcome the relative fewer wins. Good trades seldom take much heat before they perform.
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We need to book +$500 or better in ES any time within the next two sessions, and we need both sessions to finish net-profitable any way possible. Meet those two parameters and it's a successful combine effort.
I don't view Wednesday CL inventory reports to be especially opportune... they just have a statistically predictable behavior that repeats more often than not. But for the purpose of this combine, I don't need to do anything further with CL to win.
Overall the stats from this effort are satisfactory to me...
average profit to loss size (profit factor)
Sharpe ratio
time in wins to loss
daily % win rate
max drawdown to peak run-up ratio
average daily profit to loss size
All the above are within standard futures trading performance metrics.
When I'm trading 5-lots, many of those "trades" are 1-contract in, 1-contract in, 3-in or 2-in and 3-in scaled entries as price moves in favor directionally. Sometimes in the chop, I'll probe several 1-in and scratch them out as price chops sideways. Each event is counted as a "trade".
So for the sake of "averaging up" to control losses while leveraging for big enough wins to meet the timed deadline of profit performance, "trades" count is skewed.
Nice work so far Austin.
No doubt. I only trade stock index futs and I have traded only 4 times since June 1st. Trying to pass a Stock Index combine with a sub 12VIX is like boxing with both hands behind your back. I would suggest to others that if your wanting to take the TST route...just wait. Wait till the odds are stacked more favorably for increased volty. The mkt aint going anywhere....so sit on your hands as if it were a trade and await that proper time to enter it. When I completed mine in March 2013 $VIX was 16.82 hi-11.05 low for the Month and a 13.52 lo while I was trading.
Side note - what software are you running that tracks your stats? I do it all manually in excel but it would be nice to let it run auto and scrape my work for data.
Well, I absolutely needed any semblance of a normal, average range ES session today. So far the low is 1958+ and high of 66+ with 100% sideways wedge-chop all the way.
That washes out any chance of finishing net-profitable today and/or securing the token $500 ES needed to prevail. Deadest ranges overall during this combine than anyone has endured since 2006 - early 2007. I chose to qualify ES due to its ample liquidity, nobody knows ahead of time what market action will be until after the fact.
Once again I thank TST for the combine opportunity, if I run one again in the future it'll probably be CL only to qualify. I will wrap up the 10th day tomorrow "playing for pride" with intent on qualifying the CL side of this effort for the sheer sake of accomplishment
precisely right. What's the point of all these custom combines anyways? That's just man's answer to complicating the complicated.
50K Combine Rules: Trade whatever symbols you want, any amount of contracts you want, any way you see fit. Max loss intraday is -$1,000 and -$2,000 max
Once you reach +$3,000 gains without breaking any combine rules, you graduate to junior trader status automatically without question. When that may happen is open-ended, no deadline.
Then from that point on you follow junior trader rules to senior trader rules, etc.
Show me the flawed logic there, mav
... and three months later, so it has come to fruition. The new combine choices include unlimited timelines for meeting objectives
https://www.topsteptrader.com/learnmore#learnmore-combine-signup
sure could have benefitted from this had it come out just a week or two earlier... but better late than never. Kudos to TST for making every effort possible to improve trader's success
... and three months later, so it has come to fruition. The new combine choices include unlimited timelines for meeting objectives
https://www.topsteptrader.com/learnmore#learnmore-combine-signup
sure could have benefitted from this had it come out just a week or two earlier... but better late than never. Kudos to TST for making every effort possible to improve trader's success
I guess they have been reading the thread. It's good to see that they did that. As I've stated before, it was a no brainer for them. It makes them look better but honestly Austin, the success rate will not improve. I think it will help the guys who "should" qualify, get qualified faster, but the number of people in that "should" group is just a few percent. A majority of ETers have no edge, no discipline and no personal control and all the money and time in the world will never fix that. The proof will be in the pudding of course. If all of a sudden, a few months from now a flood of people suddenly qualify, then to some degree the no time limit parameter will turn out to be effective. But I predict it won't. If you don't have an edge, you will not suddenly become profitable daytrading CL or ES. Trading just doesn't work that way.
I'm not trying to be negative. I've said this all along, TST was the best thing to happen to ET as it really exposed a lot of truth about this business when people were not too busy being caught up in how much the owners were really making argument.
Austin, with regards to your combine, first of all, again congrats for stepping up. My criticisms are not meant directly for you it's just that you are the one on stage kind of showcasing and making my points for me. You talk about dead ranges and the market doing this and the market doing that, but Austin, that is precisely why people are not going to make money trading. If the ES had 40 handle ranges every day and the market WAS predictable and cyclical in a predictable way, then EVERYONE WOULD make money. But that is the rub, it's not. And it never will be, not for any sustainable period of time. And THAT is why these guys without edges are never going to make money. Oh sure there will be hot streaks. But sooner or later, the market will change and they will grind it all away and say well, if the market would have kept doing what it did do, that wouldn't have happened. But that always will happen and such is life.
you are wrong... the success rate will improve. Any time you remove a barrier from anything at all in life, entry becomes easier.
For years on end, traders made money in stocks and stock index futures. CTAs made millions and tens of millions yearly trading ES in the past.
But now the ranges have dried to <10pt intraday due to direct governments manipulation. Nobody foresaw the government making stock markets a manipulative tool for fed policy.
Another six months of this and guess what? Stock markets will implode inside of themselves. Meanwhile, other markets will continue on. CL posted a 200+ cent trend day lower today, of which I caught +41 cents early. Had I opted to focus on CL alone and nix ES, would have aced that combine with ease.
Which is precisely what we'll do next time around