Topsteptrader

Let's Redo the Math from the Max DD perspective.

As I've said previously, according to PulsarCap, for every $1K profit you get $40K increase in BP/acct balance.

So, to reach $1M BP, all you need to do is make $25K(hopefully that's not asking too much considering if you are thinking of trading for a living or even on the side.)

Once you reach $1M BP, your max DD is $15K and you get access to about 10 lots(for convenience sake).

Let's say in TST you qualified for the $150K account and now your max position size is 15, but for normalization sake you are trading 10 lots. And your max DD is $4500.

To make it true apples to apples comparison, let's say you are trading on your own acct. At $5K margin you will need a $50K to throw 10 lots.

Which of the following above do u think has the best risk/reward ration?

Ponder it and you'll know which choice to take.

:)
===========================================================
Actually, let me redo this again.

When you start...

PulsarCap:
$150K
Max DD 1.5% : $2250
Lot: 1

TST:
$150K
Max DD: $4500
Lot: 15
 
Maverick,

There's one question about TST I have which I like you to address. BTW, I'm NOT doing a Combine or consider doing one. haha. Just playing with math here. I'm trading through one of my tax-free retirement account and i have a FT job. Just curious.


At the $150K level, the max DD is $4500 on 15 lots. This means if their balance goes down to $145.5K they are done? On 15 lots it's pretty easy to get there.. This probably means people should be trading way less than 15 lots to not hit the Max DD as you've pointed out.
 
trader99 said:
Maverick,

There's one question about TST I have which I like you to address. BTW, I'm NOT doing a Combine or consider doing one. haha. Just playing with math here. I'm trading through one of my tax-free retirement account and i have a FT job. Just curious.


At the $150K level, the max DD is $4500 on 15 lots. This means if their balance goes down to $145.5K they are done? On 15 lots it's pretty easy to get there.. This probably means people should be trading way less than 15 lots to not hit the Max DD as you've pointed out.
More...

Being a trader requires a certain level of math aptitude and I've pointed this out repeatedly on this forum the lack of math aptitude of the avg person here. Managing risk whether it be in dollar terms, VAR or some kind of variance measure, one has to understand that each product exhibits a certain amount of risk. Crude oil has different risk then nat gas, which has different risk then corn which has different risk then the ES. You are required to bring your intellect to the table and do these calculations and solve for your risk given a certain parameter. It's not at all shocking to me that 99% of ET can't do that. But you are correct, even the least volatile contract should not be traded 15 times on a 150k combine until some p&l buffer is put in place. As you build p&l, you can scale up to that 15 contract threshold. This is really easy to solve mathematically. Very easy. If guys are struggling with it, there are excellent books out there that will walk one through the process.

I should point out, one does not need 15 contracts to lose 4500, you can easily lose 4500 on one contract. But yes, TST will eat the 4500 loss and put you back on the combine with no charge and let you go at it again losing another 4500. Michael stated they would let a guy blow through that 5 times or 22,500.
 
Hi Maverick,

I am not Einstein but I pretty much figured it despite forgetting all formulas. It's been a while since i studied math and algebra . lol. really a while.
Just have no idea why everybody talking about max allowed position.
I got it is is about building surplus to increase number of contracts to trade.
From what I think it must be arithmetic progression with cushion build up.

So, whatever it is either $30K I start trading after hopefully I get funded or say some $5000-10 000 own money I must build cushion in both cases as I see it preferably at least $4000 or better $5000. to be able to increase size from 1 to 2 lots and hence it should be increase as per what I wrote above. arithmetic progression for adding each additional contract.

It does not matter $5000 or $30 000 it is still starting capital which must be firstly protected by cushion.

What do you think?
Also, if half of cushion for each additional contract gone size should drop back to previous level by one contract until previous cushion high traded back.
I think it is reasonable money management.

Your thoughts?

Maverick74 said:
Being a trader requires a certain level of math aptitude and I've pointed this out repeatedly on this forum the lack of math aptitude of the avg person here. Managing risk whether it be in dollar terms, VAR or some kind of variance measure, one has to understand that each product exhibits a certain amount of risk. Crude oil has different risk then nat gas, which has different risk then corn which has different risk then the ES. You are required to bring your intellect to the table and do these calculations and solve for your risk given a certain parameter. It's not at all shocking to me that 99% of ET can't do that. But you are correct, even the least volatile contract should not be traded 15 times on a 150k combine until some p&l buffer is put in place. As you build p&l, you can scale up to that 15 contract threshold. This is really easy to solve mathematically. Very easy. If guys are struggling with it, there are excellent books out there that will walk one through the process.

I should point out, one does not need 15 contracts to lose 4500, you can easily lose 4500 on one contract. But yes, TST will eat the 4500 loss and put you back on the combine with no charge and let you go at it again losing another 4500. Michael stated they would let a guy blow through that 5 times or 22,500.
More...
 
Maverick74 said:
Being a trader requires a certain level of math aptitude and I've pointed this out repeatedly on this forum the lack of math aptitude of the avg person here. Managing risk whether it be in dollar terms, VAR or some kind of variance measure, one has to understand that each product exhibits a certain amount of risk. Crude oil has different risk then nat gas, which has different risk then corn which has different risk then the ES. You are required to bring your intellect to the table and do these calculations and solve for your risk given a certain parameter. It's not at all shocking to me that 99% of ET can't do that. But you are correct, even the least volatile contract should not be traded 15 times on a 150k combine until some p&l buffer is put in place. As you build p&l, you can scale up to that 15 contract threshold. This is really easy to solve mathematically. Very easy. If guys are struggling with it, there are excellent books out there that will walk one through the process.

I should point out, one does not need 15 contracts to lose 4500, you can easily lose 4500 on one contract. But yes, TST will eat the 4500 loss and put you back on the combine with no charge and let you go at it again losing another 4500. Michael stated they would let a guy blow through that 5 times or 22,500.
More...

Maverick,

I'm not asking you a math question! I was asking to clarify what kind of deal TST or whoever is offering. I was an ex-quant who worked(a long time ago) in quant investments/trading and went to top schools blah blah(who cares). I switched industry a while back. This is just a side hobby.

My main concern is what kinds of deals these so called backers are offering. Apparently, it ain't much. $4500. I guess the guidelines are to instill discipline. As I've said in the past, someone who can consistently pass or make money under these guidelines, DO NOT need their backing because their R/R or Sharpe ratio would be so good they can just compound their own account easily and/or get investors.

I understand if someone started with NOTHING then this might be a viable alternative.

But if you have some capital and know how to trade then TST isn't offering much.. Besides a call option to trade with OPM with a supertight leash. In the meantime, they are collecting nice entry fees ...
 
Maverick74 said:
No, no, no. Your numbers are off. That is not the formula Austin uses. That is the real"travel range" for the day using the "all I ever do is make excuses for my failures" method. I mean who can make money trading 2 handle travel ranges. (sarcasm off) :)
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Monday May 19th
ES range: 1869.25 low to 1883.00 high | 13.25 pts = $687.50 range
TF range: 1094.0 low to 1115.6 high | 21.6 pts = $2,160 range

Tue May 20th
ES range: 1880.75 high to 1864.75 low | 16.00 pts = $800 range
TF range: 1109.8 high to 1094.1 low | 15.4 pts = $1,540 range

Wed May 21st
ES range: 1874.50 low to 1886.50 high | 12.00 pts = $600 range
TF range: 1106.1 high to 1090 low | 16.1 pts = $1,610 range

Thu May 22nd
ES range: 1882.75 low to 1894.00 high | 11.25 pts = $562.50 range
TF range: 1101 low to 1115.8 high | 14.8 pts = $1,480 range

Fri May 23rd
ES range: 1890.75 low to 1899.25 high | 8.50 pts = $425 range
TF range: 1109.9 low to 1125.5 high | 15.6 pts = $1,560 range

**

That's the comparative math for last week, dollars per contract total range.

Mav, if it's so easy for you to make money in the ES, why did you fail all of your combine attempts? What went wrong for you?
 
austinp said:
You've been registered here in this site for ten minutes with five total posts to your alias.
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Nevertheless he proved your statement wrong in 1 minute. Stop attacking him personally when he is right and you are wrong. Also, just take somebody's advice and use TF as signal giver and trade the ES, if you miss TF since they are highly correlated, it is a nobrainer strategy.

And nobody tales you seriously that you would leave this thread, it is way too much fun. :)

But I really liked your excuse of "Oh they don't offer TF so I can't take the combine anymore ."

-------------------------------------

Anyhow I have a Logic 101 homework puzzle for you guys, finish the conclusion:

1. Pulsar is an obvious scam.
2. TST is a lot like Pulsar.

Therefore:

3.........
 
Yeah, I really should spend more time racking up post totals on ET and less time trying to improve my trading plan. 3,300+ posts and still unable to pass a Combine. Wow, what you could have done with that time.

I would not have been able to pass a Combine, yet, but I have a lot more live screen time than you give me credit for. My single biggest problem has been about pulling the trigger. No one in this thread has claimed the Combine would help with that problem. The Combine is more for those who overtrade or take huge losses. I under trade, and in the past year-and-a-half my biggest loss as a percent of the account is 1.03% (second biggest is 0.92%).

Will I take a Combine when I turn consistent? Probably not, but I do have my eye on Jack Schwager's Fund Seeder. Bet I attract investors before you.
 
Maverick74 said:
Holy Cow, honestly man, nobody was using the 20 day. And I'll bet dollars to doughnuts very few if anyone passed it. I think they realized that and stopped it. Yes, choices are good but honestly, that was a good move on their part. Second, technically they are risking more then 1500 to 2000. I won't testify in court for it, but Michael Patak was on this forum awhile back saying that when a guy gets sent back to the combine, his debt gets erased and he starts over again. He "claimed" they would erase a guy's debt up to 5 times. That raises that amount to 10k for a small combine and goes up to 25k to 30k for the larger combines. Keep in mind, once you pass and go live, if you stumble and go back to the combine, there are no combine fees anymore and they eat the debt each time.


I also disagree with you about taking more risk. Look, I get a little condescending on here from time to time about the lack of basic math and algebra skills by the avg ETer but it's easier to make more money in shorter times frames then less money in longer. If you plot p&l on an x/y axis with time being on the x axis you will have a negative slope. That will graphically explain to you that your p&l as a function of time as diminishing returns. In other words, the less time the better. It has nothing to do with risk. You can keep risk fixed. If you don't believe me, plot it out for yourself and you will see.

I'm not sure I understand this stress argument and not understanding the rules, they are pretty straightforward. I do agree, less rules are better, but it's not the rules are hurting people. That's a defense mechanism. At the end of the day, you can fund your own account. And you should fund your own account. Some of you guys are acting like this is some kind of government welfare program and you are entitled to get backed. Easy solution, put your monies up and start trading. There is obviously a reason guys are choosing not to fund themselves. And maybe doing a few combines will go a long ways in helping guys conquer those reasons and have the courage to go out on their own.

I personally think this firm is drowning in debt thought. I said this awhile back on here, the biggest mistake any young company can do is expand payroll too fast. This went from a few people running this operation to like 40 people now. They will drown in that overhead and I suspect they are trying to make this combine easier and easier to keep the business afloat.
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How are you getting 40 people ?

Maybe 10 at the most is my estimate

1 broadcaster
1 accountant
1 lawyer
1 HR
1 secretary
2-3 scouts



Tst has been running for almost 4 years now. If it was bleeding money I don't think Mike would still be running it.
 
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