I would trade 3 contracts max on a 150k account so a 4500 drawdawn gives me 1500 per contract or 30 effing handles in the ES!!!!!
3 contracts for 150k is a joke. You would have to make 80 es points just to pass the combine. You may as well just hand your combine money over to them and don't waste time attempting to pass it.
Trading 3 contracts and being down "30 effing handles" means you blow up in 1 day, and that's not a realistic way to evaluate the combine metrics.
Is it possible to pass a 20-day, 150k combine with only 3 contracts? Here are two scenarios:
Scenario 1:
With a 55% minimum winning day ratio of the combine parameter, it's 11 winning days vs. 9 losing days.
With the $4,500 trailing max draw, it's $500/day on 9 days.
With the $12,000 profit target, it's $1,500/day on 11 days (accounting for the draw).
Trading "3 contracts max" means you need 10 ES points on the winning days, or 40 ticks, while keeping the stop within 13 ticks on the losing days. That's a 1 by 3 risk to reward.
Scenario 2:
With a 75% winning day ratio, it's 15 winning days vs. 5 losing days.
With the $4,500 trailing max draw, it's $900/day on 5 days.
With the $12,000 profit target, it's $1,100/day on 15 days (accounting for the draw).
Again, trading "3 contracts max" means you need a little over 7 ES points on the winning days, or 30 ticks, while keeping the stop within 6 points, or 24 ticks on the losing days. That's closer to a 1 by 1 risk to reward.
You can create your own scenario, just pick a risk to reward that follows the combine parameters over the ENTIRE period.