Topsteptrader

[Spectre2007]

Ughhhh.....that is not what efficiency means. LOL.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/price-efficiency.asp

"The semi-strong version of EMH holds that while prices are efficient, they react instantaneously to new information, while the strong version of EMH maintains that asset prices reflect not just public knowledge, but private insider information as well."

Semi-strong-form efficiency[edit]
In semi-strong-form efficiency, it is implied that share prices adjust to publicly available new information very rapidly and in an unbiased fashion, such that no excess returns can be earned by trading on that information. Semi-strong-form efficiency implies that neither fundamental analysis nor technical analysis techniques will be able to reliably produce excess returns. To test for semi-strong-form efficiency, the adjustments to previously unknown news must be of a reasonable size and must be instantaneous. To test for this, consistent upward or downward adjustments after the initial change must be looked for. If there are any such adjustments it would suggest that investors had interpreted the information in a biased fashion and hence in an inefficient manner.

 

[Tonkadad]

I've gone over all the structural reasons on other threads but the skinny of it is it's THE most efficient market in the world. It's highly liquid, has millions of various derivative products attached to it, and offers no real edge on pricing. It's not a bad product to swing trade for all the reasons I just gave, but think about how much money you have to make simply get scratch on the vig. It's a 1/2 handle round turn per trade. So if you made 10 trades a day you are losing a full 5 handles on the spreads alone! The thing on avg only has usually a 10 handle range sans economic data. You are giving up 50% of the daily range just to play. The ES is the Vegas version of Keno.

That is useful info.

 

[DR.BOUYE]

I've gone over all the structural reasons on other threads but the skinny of it is it's THE most efficient market in the world. It's highly liquid, has millions of various derivative products attached to it, and offers no real edge on pricing. It's not a bad product to swing trade for all the reasons I just gave, but think about how much money you have to make simply get scratch on the vig. It's a 1/2 handle round turn per trade. So if you made 10 trades a day you are losing a full 5 handles on the spreads alone! The thing on avg only has usually a 10 handle range sans economic data. You are giving up 50% of the daily range just to play. The ES is the Vegas version of Keno.

Damned! List of things we require.

1. An edge
2. Huge ranging market (has to be easy and obvious to trade though)
3. No spread if possible
4. Zero or minimal coms and fees
5. Free money
6. No war
7. No famine
8. World peace
9. Heaven guaranteed
10. Anything that's good!

 

[Pekelo]

Let's throw in a quick accounting thingy here just for confusion on their business side.

Let's say currently they have 40 Live traders. (since they haven't been adding and I am sure some of them failing, their numbers are probably close where it was a year ago, but that isn't the point). Since most Combiners passes the 50 K combine AND the Live trading account's value is inflated by a ratio of 3 at least, we can make the following math:

40 trades x 90K average account size / 3 of actual account needed = 1.2 million

That is a rather small amount for backing 3+ dozen traders. My numbers here or there could be off a bit, but the overall point here is that the amount needed to back their live traders isn't that high and I am sure quite a few of the posters here could come up with that much money.

Now here comes the interesting part. Let's assume the backer actually has way more money, but the amount needed for backing didn't really increase over the year. So what if the backer has 5 million, but they only use 1.2-1.5 mill for backing?

What are they doing with the extra capital when there is not enough traders to use the available money up??? I am sure some of you smart guys can come up with good usage for that money....

 

[volente_00]

What are they doing with the extra capital when there is not enough traders to use the available money up???

Buying penthouses

 

[volente_00]

I've gone over all the structural reasons on other threads but the skinny of it is it's THE most efficient market in the world. It's highly liquid, has millions of various derivative products attached to it, and offers no real edge on pricing. It's not a bad product to swing trade for all the reasons I just gave, but think about how much money you have to make simply get scratch on the vig. It's a 1/2 handle round turn per trade. So if you made 10 trades a day you are losing a full 5 handles on the spreads alone! The thing on avg only has usually a 10 handle range sans economic data. You are giving up 50% of the daily range just to play. The ES is the Vegas version of Keno.

Es has went up 50, down 60 and up 35 in past 10 trading days and you say it is a terrible product to trade?
I've traded Es nearly everyday since 2006 and survived the 6 point intraday ranges it once had.
My only edge is buying fear and selling greed and it still works 8 years later.
Hell even in a low Vix market it is a money printing machine if you are patient.
As a contrarian trader I clean up with vol spikes due to mean reversion and spend the rest of the time grinding waiting for the next big move.
The spread is just a cost of doing business to me.

What index do you think is a better instrument to trade ?

 

[Maverick74]

Es has went up 50, down 60 and up 35 in past 10 trading days and you say it is a terrible product to trade?

That's swing trading. I mentioned it was a decent product to swing trade. Intraday? Come on.

I've traded Es nearly everyday since 2006 and survived the 6 point intraday ranges it once had.

If your goal is simply to survive why not take a fast food job? Your job here is to optimize your time and resources.

My only edge is buying fear and selling greed and it still works 8 years later.
Hell even in a low Vix market it is a money printing machine if you are patient.

Only on ET does somebody call that an edge.

As a contrarian trader I clean up with vol spikes due to mean reversion and spend the rest of the time grinding waiting for the next big move.

LOL. Of course your are a fader. Part and parcel for this place. Most of this crowd are faders.

The spread is just a cost of doing business to me.

Lousy answer. See comment above about optimizing time and resources.

What index do you think is a better instrument to trade ?

By definition, indices usually provide little to no edge outside of arbitrage and spreading relative value. The edge is always going to lie "inside" the index, not in the index itself. I'm sure you can deduct the mathematical logic behind that.

See comments above.

 

[Crispy]

I've gone over all the structural reasons on other threads but the skinny of it is it's THE most efficient market in the world. It's highly liquid, has millions of various derivative products attached to it, and offers no real edge on pricing. It's not a bad product to swing trade for all the reasons I just gave, but think about how much money you have to make simply get scratch on the vig. It's a 1/2 handle round turn per trade. So if you made 10 trades a day you are losing a full 5 handles on the spreads alone! The thing on avg only has usually a 10 handle range sans economic data. You are giving up 50% of the daily range just to play. The ES is the Vegas version of Keno.

Trading ES you gotta be a one pump chump....

My avg trade per day is like 1.25 over the last 123 days.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Forget about indexes, then.

What instrument do you think is "easier" to daytrade compared to ES, Maverick?

 

[Maverick74]

Forget about indexes, then.

What instrument do you think is "easier" to daytrade compared to ES, Maverick?

No such thing as "easier" or "harder" You either have an exploitable edge or you don't. Now, this does not mean you cannot make money trading something that does not have an edge. I think people on ET have a very difficult time understanding basic math and expected value. If you don't have an edge, it simply means your compensation is coming 100% from risk. Which is fine. But you need to understand that concept. IF, you are going to go that route, you need to really really really understand the concept of optimization and you do NOT, I repeat do NOT want to leverage yourself. It's exactly the OPPOSITE of what most people do here. They have no edge, trade the most efficient products and use the most leverage. And of course their failure rate is near 100%. The math does add up.