Quote from Maverick74:
Crispy gets it, you don't. I would back any scratch trader under the combine conditions and actually have. As Crispy said, becoming a scratch trader is very hard. To repeat what Crispy said, most guys don't go from mega loser to mega winner. Once you become a scratch trader, that process can take a while to start making a lot of money but it actually demonstrates risk control, the very thing a backer wants to see. Your understanding of trader math is non existent. The issue is not risking 1500 to make a $1. It's what is your "expected" return over the life of a trader. We've already seen via the combines and even Austin's trading that producing big numbers means jack shit. Because he is erratic. His variance is so high and he has no consistency.
You are also falsely assuming that these traders are doing one combine. My guess is that even with these lower standards, most traders will need 3 or 4 combines to even reach this goal. And the stats back me up on that. Once they go live, if they lose a tiny amount of money, they go back to the combine. The backer really has very little risk here unless you are assuming he is playing with a 5k bankroll. LOL.
I'll take a scratch trader any day over Austin's numbers. I know a lot of backers in this business. Our firm also backed a lot of guys. If a guy can show he is a disciplined trader who can control his risk, I'll take that risk any day and so will most backers. Let me repeat this, 95% of traders cannot even get to the scratch level so once you are there, you are dealing with a guy who has made it to the top 5%. Odds are, no guarantees of course, but odds are, he/she will develop into a good trader. And if they are making commish on the deal as well, all the better. When I backed guys I ALWAYS got a piece of the commish. A good scratch trader was very valuable. At my old equity firm in NY, they built an empire on scratch traders and commish. It's a very lucrative model. The hard part was finding good scratch traders. You make it sound 100 times easier then it is. It's not. I bet the numbers going forward will back up my argument. Let's see how many guys on ET get funded if it's just oh so easy.