Quote from Lucias:
Actually.. my analysis was wrong. You're not really given $800 risk capital because you do essentially a 50/50 split (60/40 at lowest level unless you spend even more for coaching, etc).
So let's look at this to pass the minimum objective combine
$175 Combine Fee Risked
$825 Return on Risk
But then we have to take reduce that for splits... take 60% of it and you get $495
What this means is that a trader only needs to come up with $495 to have the same risk capital that TST/PTK awards at lowest funding level (+$500 non risk money for intraday margin + find any broker that will allow you to open a sub 5k account futures account which is not likely because its ludicrious).
If you get a $500 risk cap at TST/PTK then trading on own it is equivalent to $300 risk cap... same concept.. only need to make $180 on own for $300/day equivalent at PTK.
The concept is good. But the math just doens't work. Daily risk limit too... risk capital given too small... objectives too high.
I will continue to monitor for future improvements but righ tnow.. just isn't worth the combine fee or time. I'd dare say lowest combine is barely worth it for free.
Lucias, I have no idea where you are getting this math and I'm pretty good with numbers. Your last 10 posts with numbers are just not adding up to me. I'm not sure if you are just not understanding this or if you are coming at this from a different angle.
I do believe you are sincere though so I want to make the effort to understand what you are saying. I think you are making an effort to figure this out but perhaps get stuck somewhere along the way.
Let's pretend I want to trade crude oil. Let's leave out the arguments about how volatile crude is for a moment OK and go with this. I think the overnight margin on one CL contract is 6800 or so. Not sure what the intra-day is, maybe 1k?
OK, as I've stated before, I think anyone who trades CL needs to be capitalized to trade it. I personally think one should have 25k for every one lot they want to trade. This contract moves 3k a day per contract!
OK, let's say I wanted to do the 100k combine which allows 2k daily loss limit. They will allow you to trade up to 10 contracts of CL which is a million dollars worth of oil.
Now at 100k I would not recommend anyone trading more then 4 lots at one time. So technically your intra-day margin is 4k but your risk, lol, it's much more then that. I'll tell you right now Lucias, anyone trading 4 lots of CL can easily drop 4k to 5k a day and can drop 25k in a month in a heart beat. Trust me on this.
Now TST says or claims they could let you re-set your account 4 times. Assuming they throw you off the combine that many times and let you come back and assuming they do that after you lose 4k each time means they are willing to eat 16k of your losses.
Now on a 100k combine they are asking you to make 10k in a month to get funded. That's very reasonable with Crude. So you obviously have to hit that to get funded which means you should be able to generate similar p&l when you go live.
So if you are a young guy with limited capital, I think it would be very difficult for you to come up with 25k or 100k to trade 1 to 4 lots of crude and be able to sustain losses of up to 16k. I think that is hard even for well capitalized guys.
So that combine costs $350 and if you are even profitable you can get that refunded to you. I think $350 is better for you then opening a 25k account and possibly losing half of it, say 12k trying to learn to trade crude. I just think you are not looking at this the right way.
BTW, there is a good journal on ET where guys are trading crude everyday and you can get an idea of how much they are making and losing. There are some veteran traders on that journal as well as total newbies. Check it out.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=178741