Maybe you should be more careful with how you word things. "Patak is a small fish compared to Madoff." I also already defined what a ponzi scheme is, which is also not very hard to look up on this thing called google.
TopstepTrader and Patak Trading Partners- Any and all questions answered here
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Seventeen traders seems like a lot. That's impressive if they actually have that many live guys now. I'm also curious how they define 500 are "in the program". A lot of guys do combines spread apart. So is that 500 at one time or 500 people have signed up. Even if we take that 17 into 500, that's 3%. Keep in mind most of these guys are young kids right out of school that have never traded a a day in their life.
Most of us around here use a 90 to 95% failure rate as the benchmark and that is among qualified traders. I'll say this, if they actually have a 3% to 5% retention rate, I'll be impressed. We didn't even have that at my old firm and we marketed primarily to licensed professional traders many who were former floor members.
I admit, I'm curious as well about the current numbers of live traders vs current combine accounts.
If there is one thing on this entire thread that ALL of us agree on, it's just how tough this is. LOL. That's not up for debate. At least not yet.
The interview with M. Patak was très bien.
I listened to the entire interview and got good vibes.
He sounds like a Major League baseball player and not too shady.
He states that his TopstepTrader program uses a performance based business model unlike the usual prop lite business model which uses the "deposit $5k, churn and burn, out the door in 3 months" business model.
This is a key difference.
So, if you are good, you continue to trade and progress.
If you suck, you are out of luck.
It's a profit based trading model similar to legit prop trading where you get paid so you could eat, have a roof, and clothes, and get a monster bonus if you are good. This beats the crappy transaction based prop trading where you are whipped daily to make a ton of trades and generate a monster commission. I call this "transaction based" business model a "pimp n hooker" business model. You even have to pay $5k just so you could become a hooker. Dang.
At TopstepTrader, you don't have to pay the annoying $5k. Just a measely combine fee which might be refundable.
That said, it doesn't mention if you need to get the Series 7, 56, etc. licenses.
Volente, you must have misread. I have my own account funded, live trading futures, and I've nearly doubled it. So, I have my own account and it is sufficient for me to trade. However, if I had more risk cap per day then I could make more money. I want to leverage my existing success.
You may want to look back through the thread to earlier portions where I showed that I only need to make 1/4th of the PTK/TST goal to get the same level of return. At the lowest tier level, simply the market gives me better odds then TST/PTK offer. I am considering the higher tier levels but need to do more analysis, to see if it makes sense or not.
I admit also even if it was a fair deal: I'd have hard time going back to sim and letting so many opportunities go by without taking advantage of them. Especially knowing that I only need to make 1/4th of the combine objective in my real account to obtain the same profits. How can they convince anyone with that kind of odds? It is clear they need to raise the total risk level 4x what it currently is for it to start to make sense. This would give one 4x the risk cap which would be tight but could work. Your risk limit is $500 per day and your total risk is $1,000. If your total risk is $1,000 you should no way in hell be risking $500 per day!! Get real.
But we haven't heard a confirmation from Patak that any of his traders have cleared any tangible money. You know if Regan's trader's records are any guide then they may not have any "tangibly" profitable traders. This would be of paramount importance. I know how hard it is to make money in futures market and actually wouldn't be surprised.
Surely there must be some Patak traders out who've cleared 100k? (or 60k after the split). But none here have came to defend them. We don't have traders coming out and saying.. yeah I trade for patak and made 250k last year. Or yeah, I went live and cleared 30k and quit. Nothing. Not a peep.
Whether or not they have traders making tangible profits is central to their claims of what their business is. They've been doing this for years. If they don't have any traders who've made tangible profits then it tells us most of what Patak has claimed would be false because it would mean
#1 They aren't making money from traders profits
#2 They aren't producing successful traders
#3 They don't fund traders (at a level required for success)
I'm not claiming this but if Michael isn't willing to say.. yes we have traders who've cleared 30k.. 100k.. 120k.. then what does that say?
Again, I think Michael could be a very smart guy. A bit too smart by posing his answer as a question, "Do you think the combines pay the light bills?" Yes. Mr. Patak I think that combines could pay the light bills.
But.. I''m not rushing to judgement. I'd love for Patak to come on here like a boss and talk about how he has 4, 5, 6 traders who cleared 250k last year... how 20 traders had cleared 60k... That'd be cool as hell. I don't think it will happen.
You may want to look back through the thread to earlier portions where I showed that I only need to make 1/4th of the PTK/TST goal to get the same level of return. At the lowest tier level, simply the market gives me better odds then TST/PTK offer. I am considering the higher tier levels but need to do more analysis, to see if it makes sense or not.
I admit also even if it was a fair deal: I'd have hard time going back to sim and letting so many opportunities go by without taking advantage of them. Especially knowing that I only need to make 1/4th of the combine objective in my real account to obtain the same profits. How can they convince anyone with that kind of odds? It is clear they need to raise the total risk level 4x what it currently is for it to start to make sense. This would give one 4x the risk cap which would be tight but could work. Your risk limit is $500 per day and your total risk is $1,000. If your total risk is $1,000 you should no way in hell be risking $500 per day!! Get real.
But we haven't heard a confirmation from Patak that any of his traders have cleared any tangible money. You know if Regan's trader's records are any guide then they may not have any "tangibly" profitable traders. This would be of paramount importance. I know how hard it is to make money in futures market and actually wouldn't be surprised.
Surely there must be some Patak traders out who've cleared 100k? (or 60k after the split). But none here have came to defend them. We don't have traders coming out and saying.. yeah I trade for patak and made 250k last year. Or yeah, I went live and cleared 30k and quit. Nothing. Not a peep.
Whether or not they have traders making tangible profits is central to their claims of what their business is. They've been doing this for years. If they don't have any traders who've made tangible profits then it tells us most of what Patak has claimed would be false because it would mean
#1 They aren't making money from traders profits
#2 They aren't producing successful traders
#3 They don't fund traders (at a level required for success)
I'm not claiming this but if Michael isn't willing to say.. yes we have traders who've cleared 30k.. 100k.. 120k.. then what does that say?
Again, I think Michael could be a very smart guy. A bit too smart by posing his answer as a question, "Do you think the combines pay the light bills?" Yes. Mr. Patak I think that combines could pay the light bills.
But.. I''m not rushing to judgement. I'd love for Patak to come on here like a boss and talk about how he has 4, 5, 6 traders who cleared 250k last year... how 20 traders had cleared 60k... That'd be cool as hell. I don't think it will happen.
Lucias, my friend, please listen to me. They have maybe 20 or 25 live traders now and they come from all over the world. I have tons of friends that trade prop in Chicago, none of which have EVER read a single post on this site.
Second, they have only been doing this for 2 years and I doubt anyone made the cut the first year. I actually remember looking at the requirements when they started. It was off the charts. I think they just set the bar way too high to be on the safe side. I'll bet not a single guy was funded the first 12 months. So that leaves guys funded the last 6 to 12 months. Now only recently did they add those higher funded combines. They use to only offer the 50k. So the guys who got backed 6 months or so ago could only have been funded with a very small account. I doubt those guys are generating any meaningful p&l. Now, from the last crop, the most recent 3 months, I have seen some guys get backed on the larger 100k and 150k accounts. I'm curious as well how they are doing. Keep in mind these guys have to make 10k to 15k in 2 to 4 weeks just to go live. That means they should be generating decent p&l if they stayed live. That's the key question. See the issue here is not are any of these guys making money. The issue is are any of these guys consistent. Making money is easy in this business. Keeping it is a whole other game.
I will be interested to hear if any of these guys are consistent. I can tell you from personal experience being in the prop industry for over a decade that I can count on one hand, one hand Lucias, how many guys I've met over the last 10 years who are consistent. So keep that in mind.
Second, they have only been doing this for 2 years and I doubt anyone made the cut the first year. I actually remember looking at the requirements when they started. It was off the charts. I think they just set the bar way too high to be on the safe side. I'll bet not a single guy was funded the first 12 months. So that leaves guys funded the last 6 to 12 months. Now only recently did they add those higher funded combines. They use to only offer the 50k. So the guys who got backed 6 months or so ago could only have been funded with a very small account. I doubt those guys are generating any meaningful p&l. Now, from the last crop, the most recent 3 months, I have seen some guys get backed on the larger 100k and 150k accounts. I'm curious as well how they are doing. Keep in mind these guys have to make 10k to 15k in 2 to 4 weeks just to go live. That means they should be generating decent p&l if they stayed live. That's the key question. See the issue here is not are any of these guys making money. The issue is are any of these guys consistent. Making money is easy in this business. Keeping it is a whole other game.
I will be interested to hear if any of these guys are consistent. I can tell you from personal experience being in the prop industry for over a decade that I can count on one hand, one hand Lucias, how many guys I've met over the last 10 years who are consistent. So keep that in mind.
Mav.. yes would be interesting to discover. Keep in mind I'm asking for traders who cleared various hurdles versus "consistently profitable".
Keep in mind the true risk levels given are 2x the daily loss limit. So the most they are backing traders with is 6k. 6k is a reasonable chunk of money. So they could have made some profits.. but if they understand the game then they wouldn't want to risk more then 5% to 8% of their account per day... So that'd give them a daily loss limit of only $500. If they are consistently turning out 30% of that then they could be making $150/day before splits. Even going to a higher risk level like 12% of the account, that's only $720 risk cap per day. Of course, if they don't understand the game.. they might be doing fine risking 50% of their account per day.. lol
Unfortunately they have to produce.. what 15k before they can withdraw? This is a real downer as it means they'll have to more then double their true account before they can start taking withdrawls.
Keep in mind the true risk levels given are 2x the daily loss limit. So the most they are backing traders with is 6k. 6k is a reasonable chunk of money. So they could have made some profits.. but if they understand the game then they wouldn't want to risk more then 5% to 8% of their account per day... So that'd give them a daily loss limit of only $500. If they are consistently turning out 30% of that then they could be making $150/day before splits. Even going to a higher risk level like 12% of the account, that's only $720 risk cap per day. Of course, if they don't understand the game.. they might be doing fine risking 50% of their account per day.. lol
Unfortunately they have to produce.. what 15k before they can withdraw? This is a real downer as it means they'll have to more then double their true account before they can start taking withdrawls.
Well, they had to make 16k in 4 weeks using the same risk limits just to go live so they should be able to duplicate that, even if it takes them twice as long once they are live. Also, once they have a little bit of positive equity, they can substantially increase their daily risk. For example, say they make 5k their first two days. TST will let them go 6k in the hole right? So that means they can now trade with a 11k buffer right? Say they have 15k after their first week, now they have a 21k buffer. They can start compounding their account very fast. The key here is CONSISTENCY. IF they are consistent, the p&l can double every week. Don't look at this from the standpoint of account values. Blackjack is a better example. Using a simple Kelly Criterion betting system they can compound their money on top of itself.
Now of course if they start losing money from the start, you can throw all this out the window. Once again, consistency is the key. All traders need to learn this. Did you know that a single penny doubled every day for 30 days will get you more then 5 million dollars. It's called pressing your bet. LOL.
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