TopstepTrader and Patak Trading Partners- Any and all questions answered here

[Shanb]

gmst,

If i remember correctly you had some pretty serious discipline issues as far as your trading is concerned. Now if there is one thing that i've learned about this business is that execution is NEEDED in order to have any sort of success. If you can't even execute a process in a consistent and disciplined manner you are done before you even start.

I used to have discipline issues, but I worked on them. It took alot of concentrated effort, but I took responsibility and fixed the issue on my own...I created my own structure so I can execute my process. If you can't do it on your own, maybe something like TST is exactly what you need lol.

Now I know you guys have beef with the performance requirements, but you should think about this as mental practice for executing with discipline. If you use it correctly maybe it can help you!

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from gmst:

Mav clearly lost the battle with me as far as numbers and logic are concerned. So, by quoting selectively from my journal (where I have written exhaustively about my development as a trader), he is trying to cloud the reader's judgement about the merits of my numbers and logic in Patak's case. He is basically trying to manipulate the reader. Thats all he is trying to do here.

It is true that I have blown up my account multiple times. I would like to ask - "Who doesn't when they start out trading futures"? Marty Schwartz kept blowing his account after account for 10 yrs before he became consistently profitable.

I also find it amusing that since I have blown up multiple accounts, it somehow means that I am not a Wharton MBA! COUNTER-EXAMPLES: Marty Schwartz blew his account before he became consistent, does it mean that he is not a Columbia MBA? I am not sure if many people are aware that even the billionaire Paul Tudor Jones (PTJ) also blew up his account 3 times in 1970s. And PTJ got accepted into Harvard MBA program but declined the MBA admission to keep trading, since he was already a successful pit trader by then. So, where is the connection between me blowing my account and whether I went to Wharton or not??

I started trading futures 3 yrs ago and I am still learning. Blowing up accounts is a part of the learning process. What matter is what a trader learns and how he improves his trading process from his experiences. I don't know if anyone can disagree with this!

Finally, every trader suffers from discipline issues. If involving your mom or your girl-friend or your sibling or doing visualization exercises helps you to sort out the discipline problem, whats wrong with this approach? I am not sure if Mav has any idea - but when Mark Cook lost 500k, he also confided in his mother.

I will be responding only sparingly. Mav can continue to write how great Patak is and mislead newbies. However, I don't have time to waste on Patak anymore. Thanks.

Actually gmst, you are right. Most new guys, myself included blew up accounts. I'm not knocking you for that. What I'm saying is if you took the time to listen to what others are telling you around here is that you should not be trading real money yet. This is precisely what TST is good for. Or even siming on Ninja.

What I do take issue with is your fantasy idea that you can trade futures with 2k or 3k or whatever. I do take issue with you thinking you are going to run 2k to a million. I do take issue with 50% drawdowns in your account and then claiming TST is "too restrictive". I've been trying to help you here kid. The goal of every trader is not to become a millionaire or make a 10,000% return. The goal is to become consistent first and then make a living second.

And again, you need to get a job.

As far as the Wharton comment, there is no way your spelling and grammar would get you into Wharton much less stay there. Now, I know you'll say this is a message board and you don't edit yourself but that is the point, Wharton grads don't need to edit themselves, your writing skills should be exemplary by this point. And quite frankly, I'm not sure they could get you into a state college.

You have all the wrong goals kid. Slow down. Take a deep breath. Get a job, save up some money. Go back to school. And get a really good job. Trade on the side. See if you can become consistent on a sim first. Then once you are properly capitalized, give it a shot. You have time on your side here kid, don't waste it. I admire your ambition. And the fact you have blown out a few accounts and you're still at it is good. You're going to need that perseverance down the road. Don't be so combative here. Some of us are trying to help you and give you some good advice mixed in with a little ribbing for fun.

 

[SteveNYC]

Quote from Maverick74:

See guys this is the problem. We have a lot of people here who subscribe to the "I'm going to take 2k to a million dollars" model. I respect this kids ambition and I'm glad he loves trading. He needs to get a job. Either a trading job that pays a salary (back office, support, etc) or any job and save up enough money to have a proper bankroll. At least 25k to 50k and that is being generous.

The funny thing is, the TST model is precisely made for guys like him. He is just too in-experienced to realize it. Maybe he should confer with his "mom".

His mom is too busy.

 

[SteveNYC]

Quote from HurricaneUS:

Damn gmst.....Mav just ripped you a new one.....a full frontal assault with guns blazin'

what say you?

Methinks Mav. moonlights as a detective. His sleuthing ability quite uncanny.

 

[traderchi128]

Quote from gmst:

You are completely wrong. Are you not aware of Fed meeting days in advance? Similarly, for other countries, Central Bank meeting days are known in advance, the time they would make an announcement is also well known.

Newsflash GMST. I was being sarcastic.

 

[satchel]

Quote from HurricaneUS:

Damn gmst.....Mav just ripped you a new one.....a full frontal assault with guns blazin'

what say you?

This was an interesting intellectual discussion until the bug squashing ensued.

Mav, a trading gunfight with you is like asking a fly to make a dent in King Kong, it ain't happening. You held up well, even through all the crazy allegations, you always do. You have credentials in spades. Did you have to go dig into the guys journal? Isn't that easy pickings. Isn't a journal going to reflect that trader's journey, a trail of tears. Give me one trader who started out of the gate and didn't have to pay any dues, who didn't have to figure out the hard way it is about preserving capital, who didn't have to figure out it is about consistency week in, week out.

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from satchel:

This was an interesting intellectual discussion until the bug squashing ensued.

Mav, a trading gunfight with you is like asking a fly to make a dent in King Kong, it ain't happening. You held up well, even through all the crazy allegations, you always do. You have credentials in spades. Did you have to go dig into the guys journal? Isn't that easy pickings. Isn't a journal going to reflect that trader's journey, a trail of tears. Give me one trader who started out of the gate and didn't have to pay any dues, who didn't have to figure out the hard way it is about preserving capital, who didn't have to figure out it is about consistency week in, week out.

Hey you know what, I actually felt some sympathy for him and I wish him no ill will. I went through the journal to demonstrate how he looks at risk which was really important in this dialogue. He keeps saying TST is too strict. And after reading his journal, I finally understand where he is coming from. There is no way he could pass the combine with the volatility his style has. I understand that now. Unfortunately, no backer will tolerate that kind of volatility.

I tried to set this kid on the right path on the other threads. I thought I gave him honest and genuine advice. Keep in mind this whole thing started when he began a thread calling me a shill for TST and tried to implicate me in some scam. I defended the model because ironically, I believe models like this were actually made for people like him. I wasn't trying to kick dirt in his face. I wish him well. He's young. He'll learn.

 

[cygnetnoir]

Quote from marketsurfer:

apply this idea to double or nothing binary options www.nadex.com and it gets very interesting. wonder why NO ONE can even guess direction correctly more than few times in a row?

I know nothing of binary options. I trade stocks and standard equity options. I had in mind standard options, either weekly or monthly expiry, in this case.

In blackjack, a good counter can have extraordinary runs through a few shoes when he finds himself in consecutively high counts.

The question that Maverick's post prompted me to ask myself is how can an option trader find the equivalent of a high count, or better yet, the equivalent of several consecutive high count shoes?

And, assuming such an edge could be found, how long could the trader "press his bet" before the inevitable loss?

In other words, it is interesting to me as a game or puzzle. Would I try to trade this way? No. Or, perhaps yes, but only as a game with no expectation of joining the "2K to 2 million club." More like a "how far could I run a $100 table before I was shown the door with my pockets turned inside out."

 

[Lucias]

cygnet.. you may want to recheck your assumptions about who can or can't guess direction... I knew a trader who made like 30k-40k in a couple weeks trading those binaries. He was using a bet sizing algorithm.. adding size as the account grew.

With the binaries.. you have to keep in my mind that they are small contracts and you give up the spread and comission.. about 5%-6% edge. This means that you have to be right about 56% of the time to break even on them. Even so, I like the binaries because they limit tail risk that is inherent and always dangerous in the futures. I like the spreads for the same reason.

I've been pushing NADEX to become more competitive with their trade fees and spreads, as well as introducing a 2-3 day spread. I like their products but have made more in the futures market.

A double or nothing on binaries would be a sure loser. However because one can constraint the volatility one can do some interesting things with them... in terms of bet sizing. If you take a system that has say 4 losers historically.. you could double that to 8 losers... then you risk up to 12% of your capital per trade. Of course, this assumes that the # losers in a row will be stable over time which may not be the case. But in general.. I've systems that have ran for 10 years with max 4 consecutive losses. I think it is reasonable that it is unlikely, if the system continues to perform, for that number to more then double and certainly a low probability during my first 4 trades.. although it could happen!

Another nice feature is you only need enough money to make the next bet unlike requiring overnight margin for ES. This means effectively, you can take a system that requires 7k to trade in the futures and reduce that to only about 3k required (at the same size!) So even if you are down what on your luck.. you still can make that last bet and maybe hit a winning streak. ;0 The kicker is the spreads and commissions.

 

[ScalperJoe]

Quote from traderchi128:

I think anyone with a good strategy/risk mgmt would do fine with it. The guys who whine that it's unachievable are your typical cowboy/gambler traders who would blow out with any kind of risk limits.

1000 bucks trading with Crude Futures, 5 lot max.

Longer term guys who are going for the 1 to 3 dollar move should probably be risking 1 buck in Crude. 1000 bucks. Trade a 0ne lot

Medium term guys going for the 70-150 move in crude give it 50 cents downside, 2 contracts.

The scalpers who probably are only going to give it 5-10 ticks risk could trade 4-5 lots.

All depends on your strategy/time frame/Profit goals.

Good points. If you review the guy's stats in the link, he never maxed the 3 lots on crude. I think it would be difficult for scalpers to pass with the volatility in crude, only because you not only have to meet the profit targets, but also TWO of the three parameters:

1. Overall Avg win greater than Overall avg loss
2. Overall Avg win duration greater than Overall avg loss duration
3. 45% winning trades or better

If you're scalping for a few ticks, then it will reduce your % total winning trades if you continuously take tight stops, even if you ultimately meet the profit objectives, which means by default you have to pass using the other two criteria.

In fact, the trader played just one lot his first day and it took almost 2 hours to gross a 14 tick move on crude! What's unknown by the stats is what draw he had to withstand to get the 14 ticks.

So you'd have to play for the bigger moves in crude, and let the trade work its way to profit, even if it takes longer.

http://www.topsteptrader.com/fundedtradereport