Topped out. Went short tonight

[Spectre2007]

Just realized something, the FED doesn't want growth, growth implies inflation and higher rates, which will collapse system. They want deflation at a measured pace down. Even though they say otherwise.

All governments with unsustainable spending need zero percent rates at bare minimum.

 

[Maverick74]

Just realized something, the FED doesn't want growth, growth implies inflation and higher rates, which will collapse system. They want deflation at a measured pace down. Even though they say otherwise.

All governments with unsustainable spending need zero percent rates at bare minimum.

This statement is beyond absurd. And civics lesson here, the Fed is a private institution. They are NOT the government.

 

[Spectre2007]

This statement is beyond absurd. And civics lesson here, the Fed is a private institution. They are NOT the government.

Inefficient and non productive populations with ever growing unsustainable liabilities, can only be supported by perpetual debt printing. Perpetual debt printing can only be sustained as interest rates get driven to zero over long periods of time.

Just think about it, if you have a productive population you can generate enough GDP to pay for the things that the population needs. Basically we are turning into a welfare state with ever increasing proportions of the population who contribute minimally to GDP.

If the population starts being productive, interest rates start bumping up triggering a crisis situation as bond values cascade down. The current evolving situation to zero interest rates is the best solution since its a interest free loan for all the social programs and defense spending.

Its a hole dug that can't be escaped, if you try to jump out of the hole, you have runaway inflation.

 

[Maverick74]

Inefficient and non productive populations with ever growing unsustainable liabilities, can only be supported by perpetual debt printing. Perpetual debt printing can only be sustained as interest rates get driven to zero over long periods of time.

The Fed does not "print" debt. The US Treasury does. The Fed "monetizes" debt. Try to understand the difference because it is not trivial. Also as interest rates go negative, the demand for debt is going to decrease, not increase. Because the opportunity cost of holding that debt goes up. Again, this is not trivial, it's really important to understand the math and economics behind money before you make these arguments.

 

[Spectre2007]

The Fed does not "print" debt. The US Treasury does. The Fed "monetizes" debt. Try to understand the difference because it is not trivial. Also as interest rates go negative, the demand for debt is going to decrease, not increase. Because the opportunity cost of holding that debt goes up. Again, this is not trivial, it's really important to understand the math and economics behind money before you make these arguments.

All of what you said is known, just playing out different scenarios and what has already happened in other countries. Basically the message is we are headed to zero because of non productive portion of our population. Thats all I'm trying to get at. Non productive relative to the quality of life enjoyed.

 

[Maverick74]

All of what you said is known, just playing out different scenarios and what has already happened in other countries. Basically the message is we are headed to zero because of non productive portion of our population. Thats all I'm trying to get at. Non productive relative to the quality of life enjoyed.

I don't see this connection. First of all, market rates are not even remotely close to zero. In most emerging countries they are actually quite high. Even in the US, a majority of the population pays over 10% for interest on items related to consumption. And what we are losing from productivity from the lower half of our population is more then offset by the increase in productivity from the upper half. In fact, the increase in productivity is partly the reason why labor has taken such a strong hit in the middle to lower middle class. This technological transformation will only get worse.

Japan is one of the most efficient countries in the world. Their negative rates has nothing to do with low productivity. And I have no idea where quality of life fits into this conversation. India has some of the high rates in the world with one of the lowest quality of life imaginable. If I had to choose between Japan or India to live I take Japan walking away.

 

[Spectre2007]

Some curves are worthy of taking action on.

 

[endicottsteel]

If you check the monthly chart you will see Jan/Feb/March is printing a perfect v reversal, the completion of the up move is very likely to take out all time highs, any moves down now are just pullbacks into this final leg up. The people that control the markets need to get paid and with the size they have there is only one place they can fully liquidate. The market absolutely does not control the fed, sentiment will affect the fed's behaviour but since GFC the market has been the feds bitch and it continues to be. The new all time highs coming in Q2/early Q3 will not be sustained without further stimulus. There will need to be sufficient fear and panic to justify further stimulus to the people hence I don't think the new all time highs coming will hold. There could be a last pump up for the final liquidation either way anyone with anything remotely resembling a tight stop will be liquidated.

Further stimulus wont happen though without higher powers than the government approving it and given what has happened since GFC I don't think they will want it, they would prefer lower asset prices to re-buy. End game for markets is not here yet, people were calling at the time of GFC they have been calling it last 2 years, all of them run over until pay day.

Trump odds are shortening, UK bookies quoting 5/2 and 4/9 hilary. Neither of them can stop the end game but trump would likely speed it up. By end game I am talking about marking down of assets >50%.

GL.

Yep. All to plan.

 

[endicottsteel]

If you check the monthly chart you will see Jan/Feb/March is printing a perfect v reversal, the completion of the up move is very likely to take out all time highs, any moves down now are just pullbacks into this final leg up. The people that control the markets need to get paid and with the size they have there is only one place they can fully liquidate. The market absolutely does not control the fed, sentiment will affect the fed's behaviour but since GFC the market has been the feds bitch and it continues to be. The new all time highs coming in Q2/early Q3 will not be sustained without further stimulus. There will need to be sufficient fear and panic to justify further stimulus to the people hence I don't think the new all time highs coming will hold. There could be a last pump up for the final liquidation either way anyone with anything remotely resembling a tight stop will be liquidated.

Further stimulus wont happen though without higher powers than the government approving it and given what has happened since GFC I don't think they will want it, they would prefer lower asset prices to re-buy. End game for markets is not here yet, people were calling at the time of GFC they have been calling it last 2 years, all of them run over until pay day.

Trump odds are shortening, UK bookies quoting 5/2 and 4/9 hilary. Neither of them can stop the end game but trump would likely speed it up. By end game I am talking about marking down of assets >50%.

GL.

yes it's all playing out. retail is heavily short equities and oil. watch as it unfolds as per my post above before the fact.

Why is the market going up on nothing, it's all written in my above post, that's the 'why'. I have not spelled it out exactly as it would be foolish to do so. Prices are being heavily manipulated imo. This is all about wealth transfer and we are just getting started.

 

[WildBill]

yes it's all playing out. retail is heavily short equities and oil. watch as it unfolds as per my post above before the fact.

Why is the market going up on nothing, it's all written in my above post, that's the 'why'. I have not spelled it out exactly as it would be foolish to do so. Prices are being heavily manipulated imo. This is all about wealth transfer and we are just getting started.

Here comes SPY 249 or a little higher. Then it's time for food, bullets and puts.