Top Ticking The Market; Top Tick Is In For Now!

G

Garbage Can Ray

We have seen a near-term top in the U.S. equity markets. Something unforeseen is about to emerge to the forefront. INTC earnings will mark a multi-month top in the major U.S. averages.

A scary and unexpected correction will commence next week. The current low volume atmosphere will explode as comfortable longs become very uncomfortable in short order and volatility returns in a major way.

This correction will be fast, vicious, and totally unforeseen, but will reverse itself just as powerfully. S&P will close 2011 at 1500.
 
Are you talking your book or just thinking about getting short? I'll give you the counterargument. There is no sign of an interest rate increase on the horizon. Therefore asset prices will continue to increase. Do not fight the fed.
 
Not talking my book, necessarily. Took big profits in OIH, BAC, VALE today on FEAR. Assimilating everything today, FEAR outweighed GREED for me. I may, as always, be a complete idiot.

I am still very moderately net long in MS, C, GLD, SLV, offset by short NFLX and long UUP, all of which managed to f*ck me, but no worries...

Something does not feel right. We hit a wall in mid-January last year with very similar circumstances. S&P topped on Jan 8th and began to break down on Jan 15th, if I am not mistaken. VERY, VERY bullish tone going into earnings. Complacency, etc...

I have been bullish for awhile and have been scoffing at the Bears, who have been totally destroyed. Today was TOO complacent. We have earnings after all...How can there be so many bulls going into such an important time frame after the run we have had?

And why is CNBC all of a sudden reporting on a "super-cycle" in commodities? That has been beyond obvious for months...Dollar down, gold down, silver down, oil down, stocks down on Jan 13th...
 
Quote from Roark:

Something does not feel right? That concept does not lend itself well to back testing.
More...

You put your finger right on it. He does not comprehend the concept of "climbing a wall of worry."
 
The S&P has remained above its 10-day moving average for a record number of days. I haven't backtested that, but maybe you should.

I am not a short-term trader, and I don't claim to be a good trader at that. Let's see how it plays out. At some price level, buying interest evaporates. I believe we are at that level where fear hits a tipping point.

As always, I could be completely wrong. "It doesn't feel right" is not good trading logic, but everyone has to decide at what point the fear of losing outweighs the possibility of further gains. I think we are there.
 
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