Top Performing ETFs

<b>Market View - 29.Mar.2010</b>

<b>NYSE Percent of stocks above the 50 Day MA: 78%</b>

Buy Aggressively
Buy Cautiously
Hold
Sell Cautiously
<b>Sell Aggressively</b>

(the highlighted option is my current sentiment)

There is no reason to take any risk here. We will now wait for the market to pull back. I will be looking for a sell exhaustion day to get back in.

The last three times I did this i was able to time the entry very very close to the short term bottoms.

And all of the three times I made my buys after 3:45 PM.

My short position <b>DRV</b> is still in the red, but I feel confident that it is going to recover soon.

I am mostly in <b>CASH</b> right now.
 
Hi investics...

Your plan to wait and see sounds like a good one. It would seem risky to go all in with a short position at this point. It appears that the market, after trading in the same range for the past 7 months or so, is well in the process of migrating to a new HIGHER trading range. We will have to wait to see what that range ultimately will be but there is a possibility that the prices we're seeing right now could be the lower end of the new range.

Good luck... wellsley
 
Quote from investics:

<b>Percent of Stocks above 50 Day MA</b>

Here is the special week-end post as promised.

Keeping an eye on the broad market could turn out to be a very effective strategy. One such indicator is the <b>NYSE Percent of stocks above the 50 Day MA.</b>

Thankfully stockcharts.com has made our life a lot easier. Please take a look at the attached file to this post.

If carefully observed one can notice that the short term bottoms seem to be very clean, but tops are not as simple to speculate. Again there is no magic number. But keeping track of this % is very useful in deciding when to enter or exit the market.

One such effective strategy could be to enter the market when this number is below <b>30%</b> and exit the market when the number is above <b>80%</b>.

The tough part of the approach is to decide when the market is changing the trend. Thus it requires a lot patience to able to implement it. This indicator is free and easy to understand, so why not add it to your tools.

Let me know what you think.

Cheers!
More...

Investics, I'm perhaps a little fuzzy about the research. Do you really need a rank percent to tell the percent of stocks near their low? Visually, I can see 30 and 80 appearing optimal, yet I get the sense that this is a curve fit most likely but certainly not purposely, and the bet against has enough temporal time to physically move the price to a different level beyond what you expected it to do.

What is anymore causal about a strength ranking that tells more about where we're at than where we're going? At least, that's one of the problems I have with it fundamentally, but in real time taking small positions should reduce your DD.


If this was a strategy and I wanted to do it, I would create this dataseries and watch the RSI. Theoretically your indicator would be correlated with it.

The 30-80 rule I believe is the same as the trend is your friend argument when the 50 day is above the 200 day. Tops are hard to call, and, truthfully mathematically complex and quantitative. I think a little more quantitative than this. Try RSI on this percent price chart and see if you don't get a more robust result.

Without doing anything, that was my first impression. I know any input is good.
 
<b>wellsley</b>

Thanks for your comment.

I like to call myself a <b>Early Reactor</b> than a <b>Speculator</b>.

We will just follow the trend of the market with minimal risk.

Quote from wellsley:

Hi investics...

Your plan to wait and see sounds like a good one. It would seem risky to go all in with a short position at this point. It appears that the market, after trading in the same range for the past 7 months or so, is well in the process of migrating to a new HIGHER trading range. We will have to wait to see what that range ultimately will be but there is a possibility that the prices we're seeing right now could be the lower end of the new range.

Good luck... wellsley
More...
 
<b>bwolinsky</b>

Thank you so much for taking the to time to analyze and post.

Kindly note that, this is not the only indicator I use to enter or exit the market.

I have never used a technical indicator to make buying or selling decision. I am a strong believer in quantitative approaches.

The goal of making traders/investors aware of this method was to give them some idea about the overall breadth of the market which many seem not to take into consideration.

But I do think it is worth a shot to test the RSI.

Hope we hear from you again....

Cheers!

Quote from bwolinsky:

Investics, I'm perhaps a little fuzzy about the research. Do you really need a rank percent to tell the percent of stocks near their low? Visually, I can see 30 and 80 appearing optimal, yet I get the sense that this is a curve fit most likely but certainly not purposely, and the bet against has enough temporal time to physically move the price to a different level beyond what you expected it to do.
More...
 
A Strange coincidence occurred yesterday.

<b>S&P 500 Index ($SPX) at close

03/31/2010 - 1,173.27
03/30/2010 - 1,173.27 </b>

A pretty flat day yesterday.

Below Average volume.

I am beginning to see the money flow outward.

Could this be the beginning of the pull back????

My short position in <b>DRV</b> is finally in the green.
 
Even though the market closed in the RED.

The sell off was not strong enough to conclude the beginning of a down trend.

Money did flow out. But sellers don't seem to be active.

My short position(DRV) was in the green at close.

<b>Status: Mostly in Cash waiting for a pullback, a small short position.</b>
 
<b>Top 10 ETFs according to their one month performance with at least $5M in daily average dollar volume.</b>

Symbol One_Week_Performance Two_Week_Performance One_Month_Performance*
FAS 4.74 10.25 33.55
DRN 2.45 3.12 30.54
EDC 17.96 18.37 25.96
URE 1.48 3.14 19.48
UYG 2.98 6.8 18.73
TNA 3.78 8.01 17.88
UPRO 4.32 6.67 17.39
AGQ 14.87 16.25 16.25
UCO 14.12 15.66 15.66


* copy paste into Excel to see the table
 
<b>NYSE Percent of stocks above the 50 Day MA: 85%</b>

Buy Aggressively
Buy Cautiously
Hold
Sell Cautiously
<b>Sell Aggressively</b>

(the highlighted option is my current sentiment)

My opinion hasn't changed in the last two weeks. The Market is over bought to be making new buys. This is too risky for my taste. I did leave some money on the table due to my early exit, but I feel very comfortable with my decision.

<b>Have a FANTASTIC WEEK!</b>
 
<b>Market View - 06.Apr.2010</b>

<b>NYSE Percent of stocks above the 50 Day MA: 87%</b>

Yesterday was a solid green day across the board, but the volume was below average.

Money flow has been decently inward the during last two trading days.

My short position in the bear ETF <b>DRV</b> is below the line at -4.93%, I am still holding for now.


Cheers!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top