4/23 -$972
oh dear..
I don't play the report moves. My prediction was after the report, NG will shoot up and than trickle down until EOD. That was a rough rough prediction just based on the opening level of NG compared to the previous close. And that is exactly what happened during trading hours. So why did I lose so much money?
After NG report, NG shot up and high point was like 1.933. My target was 1.939. Yes, just .006 points off yet to me that was significant. Comparing my charts, NG had more room to fill on the upside before it trickles down. So I entered a position 1.914 and im just seeing it go down slowly, because I think it's a fake. NG needs to fill that "space" before it goes down. That's what I'm reading from the charts. NG does a small spike - I have a chance to exit for $30-$40 profit. I decide not to because I trust myself reading the charts. NG keeps on going down. My body is telling me to exit because this looks like it may go down a lot. It's playing how I predicted, yet I decide not to exit because I wan't to start following the chart analysis more than my impulse. NG is moving down like it's carefully trying to take out the stop level of everyone riding it, without triggering a big sell-off, and literally itching down. The worst patterns.
I get a crazy theory. I see the chart and I still believe my analysis. However, my account is bleeding more and more. Why would this happen? 1. I'm totally wrong. 2. Big boys trying to take out as many riders as they can, buying more contracts for themselves, because this NG is going to fly up for multiple days to come. Hm. I think my first theory has much high priority of being right, but for some reason I still think NG didn't fill that "space" so it needs to go back up. I decide shit what the hell im going to 100% trust my chart analysis this time, and possibly ride the break-out to the sky. So I keep in my position and see how I do. This move goes against almost all of my trading strategy - however, first time in my life I'm saying chart analysis > trading strategy. So very excited to see how this plays out. Right now I don't think I'm gambling. Very high.. very high risk. But I figure, for me it's always my instincts > chart analysis and I always miss out all the breakouts. Because breakouts are just what they sound like - breakout out of a pattern. And when the movement goes against the pattern, my mind is telling me to exit. I think if I ever want to be a really successful trader, I need to be able to ride the breakouts; trust my chart analysis and keep my balls intact while at it. So this is me. Going for it. YESSSSS