Took my lumps today. Took a 3200USD loss today but avoided an 22K or more loss

destriero · Oct 10, 2018

Palindrome said:
In my area where the average home is about $650k, their seems to be very little inventory for these "starter" homes and move quick once on the market.... at least during the summer, fall is generally quiet.

On the flipside, homes 1.3mm+... tons of inventory and none are moving.

I think for the average home, we are in the consolidation phase and they move higher in the coming years. In my area we are just "retesting" the 2006 highs...and once this consolidation phase ends, we should push higher.

But what the hell do I know...I'm just a futures freak

Homes within $200K of FHA are selling; anything above that are cash deals. Totally unsustainable. Wait for the 2019 recession and 10% YoY price declines.

Palindrome · Oct 10, 2018

Nice, I hope you are right, I will then buy a beach house.

I'm not as bearish as you are though, much more optimistic.

deltastrike · Oct 10, 2018

destriero said:
Homes within $200K of FHA are selling; anything above that are cash deals. Totally unsustainable. Wait for the 2019 recession and 10% YoY price declines.

Chinese buyers will keep those prices up a bit longer.

FriskyCat · Oct 10, 2018

Overnight said:
I haven't learned that lesson yet, because I always believed in market recovery after Feb and March this year. After all, when was the last time we have seen this kind of volatility in a year on both the long and short side? Ooops! This one may well wipe me out. We shall see.

You crack me up. Invest a small amount of time in historical charts.

silveredge · Oct 11, 2018

Let's all buy into MU, LRCX, rebounding today

CrytpoTrading · Oct 11, 2018

Big time stuff

Scataphagos · Oct 11, 2018

prc117f said:
Positive for the year (minus 3200 bucks) but If I would have been an idiot, or using Hope as a strategy, or tried to ride it out our double down to hope for a profit it would have been bad.

prc117f said:
...will focus at the task at hand and not be lazy.

Two important lessons for all of us traders.

tomorton · Oct 11, 2018

Buy1Sell2 said:
Prudent Risk Management is the only true edge in trading.

Not the only edge but if you don't have this one the others are worthless. Yesterday should have taught us nothing at all - naturally I got stopped out but that's what I wanted.

Buy1Sell2 · Oct 11, 2018

tomorton said:
Not the only edge but if you don't have this one the others are worthless. Yesterday should have taught us nothing at all - naturally I got stopped out but that's what I wanted.

It's the only edge. The rest are tools to better see the picture. PRM is the bomb.

MarkBrown · Oct 11, 2018

i did a lot of testing over 30+ years and i have found that a 2.5% stop below something like a 21 day moving average price should always be a reality check it's not getting better.