Took my lumps today. Took a 3200USD loss today but avoided an 22K or more loss

[Palindrome]

I had my worst month ever in September account was down 9%.... I made it all back and then some the last 3 days

I obliterated Wall Street:

Futures
Long ZN - 117"155 (sunday night)
Long NG 3.24
Long Euro 1.1501
Short NQ's today 7250
Long JPY 8868
only loser was short GC at 1191

I'm looking to short NQ's again and CL perhaps as early as tonight.

 

[destriero]

It was a good call. I thought it was little early, wish had bought more protection

Regarding RE market, home builders ETF ITB is already down 25% YTD

Yeah, it was early but the structure loses only 15% at SPX 3000. Best case is 2900 (near double) by XMAS, but it cannot earn less than 50% below 2900. The NAFTA re-work was the culprit, but I'd never been more confident in a trade outside of pure arbitrage.

 

[prc117f]

The problem with forums like this is that the bias is inherently (ingrained) to be long the market--ever more so after a nearly decade long bull market. I took a ton of shit on my "cyclical top" thread and they're still looking for highs over 3050.

Won't happen.

I was waffling on an RE offer from a buyer but took the offer without another counter as I expect the rez RE market to IMPLODE before Q1 2019.

I am out of all longs, still heavily short, and have nearly 30% of my LNW in short mkt/long vola. My March SPX position is perfected at SPX 2900 but cannot lose under 2933.

2012 bought the house nextdoor Its in a great location, and both homes mid century architecture waterfront property and the lots in my area are big non of that zero lot shit, its old school . Not too concerned with RE risk. it was buy a bigger home or just buy the one next to you and now I have my own mancave with music studio,trading office etc.. Wife happy since does not hear the racket as well, Genelec's in all the rooms

And a mini nerd museum

I hate the modern Mcmansion zerolot style properties. And McMansion designs get uglier and uglier every year.

 

[S2007S]

It was a good call. I thought it was little early, wish had bought more protection

Regarding RE market, home builders ETF ITB is already down 25% YTD

Home builders are in a bear market, that is a huge signal of what is to come.....housing prices will be coming down as mortgage rates rise above 5%>>>>>housing market needs a huge readjustment!!!

 

[trademan1]

Yeah, it was early but the structure loses only 15% at SPX 3000. Best case is 2900 (near double) by XMAS, but it cannot earn less than 50% below 2900. The NAFTA re-work was the culprit, but I'd never been more confident in a trade outside of pure arbitrage.

Anticipating a continuing rise of mortgage rates?

 

[destriero]

Anticipating a continuing rise of mortgage rates?

No, values taking a plunge.

 

[trademan1]

No, values taking a plunge.

Good thing I’m under contract to purchase and just completed an inspection. It was rates rising that I was worried about. Seemed quite obvious that home values are way high as there are literally under a handful of homes available under $500k in my area.

 

[Palindrome]

In my area where the average home is about $650k, their seems to be very little inventory for these "starter" homes and move quick once on the market.... at least during the summer, fall is generally quiet.

On the flipside, homes 1.3mm+... tons of inventory and none are moving.

I think for the average home, we are in the consolidation phase and they move higher in the coming years. In my area we are just "retesting" the 2006 highs...and once this consolidation phase ends, we should push higher.

I also think Interest rates will Pause and not go much higher near term and settle in at this level for about a year or so, then continue a bit higher.

But what the hell do I know...I'm just a futures freak

 

[trademan1]

In my area where the average home is about $650k, their seems to be very little inventory for these "starter" homes and move quick once on the market.... at least during the summer, fall is generally quiet.

On the flipside, homes 1.3mm+... tons of inventory and none are moving.

Very similar to my area, plenty of homes 1.3mm+ available. Only 3 homes under $500k, and those homes are overvalued for what they are listed at.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

I haven't learned that lesson yet, because I always believed in market recovery after Feb and March this year. After all, when was the last time we have seen this kind of volatility in a year on both the long and short side? Ooops! This one may well wipe me out. We shall see.

Prudent Risk Management is the only true edge in trading.