Too Simple to Work? Advice Needed
- Thread starter GarrettKimmel
- Start date
Could never get my head around Jacks stuff
GarrettKimmel
A couple clarification questions:
1) your reference to "previous high"... Do you mean prior BAR high, or prior high Pivot?
2) do you have interest in applying to equities?
The reason I ask, is it seems this should be fairly easily scripted to backtest thru different equities/indexes over longer time periods, to better understand how/when it is profitable. (I currently have access to equity historic prices, not currencies.)
Regards,
A couple clarification questions:
1) your reference to "previous high"... Do you mean prior BAR high, or prior high Pivot?
2) do you have interest in applying to equities?
The reason I ask, is it seems this should be fairly easily scripted to backtest thru different equities/indexes over longer time periods, to better understand how/when it is profitable. (I currently have access to equity historic prices, not currencies.)
Regards,
Your strategy actually looks pretty good. Simple can be good. It will surely have losing periods though. How many markets are you trading it in, as maybe some diversification will help to avoid massive drawdowns?
I'm doing something like this myself and use currency ETFs. My account's not big enough to get into trading lots of futures contracts alongside one another and I didn't want to lose the diversification, so I opted for the ETFs (although I'm now looking at some of the e-Micro futures - anyone got any experience with these contracts?).
I'm doing something like this myself and use currency ETFs. My account's not big enough to get into trading lots of futures contracts alongside one another and I didn't want to lose the diversification, so I opted for the ETFs (although I'm now looking at some of the e-Micro futures - anyone got any experience with these contracts?).
1. bar high
2. no
Dear All, now I am testing a new strategy.
FYI I don't want to quit my job and make a living with trading, I simply felt in love with finance and want to see if of course I can make sone extra money for saving or just spending around. I started learning using finance for metal hedging and then I decided to study technical finance by myself.
After trying several indicators, I went back to the base and set up this Trading System:
- Fastest SMA 3x3 (A)
- Slowest SMA 25x5 (B)
- ENTER when the A>B AND the last close > previous high (and vice versa for SHORT)
- EXIT when close < A
I attach a picture (the chart is old, just for an example)
Please all the critiques will be highly appreciated.
What many don't talk about is individual instruments, what might work well in Crude Oil usually losses in ES, you have to know your market. I have never liked systems where you have to risk so much and this is the method where I believe that to happen cause when you get in chop, too tight of a stop, you will numerous losses in a row.
I think you have half of a good system, keep 25sma but use it as main trend ID, using the slope. Entry would always be on the other side of the 3sma and must be close or touching the 25sma, in downtrend look for highest low to sell 2-3 ticks below and stops above that area highs. Use a Time stop and/or distance to go to breakeven plus one tick stops. You will get in at better prices and if in chop-randomness will allow you to often get plus one tick profit.
Yea, I tested sma delayed back in mid 90s, I even paid $8k for one minute system that had delayed EMAs and based on fibs to boot, it actually worked well on big S&P500 cause risk was tight, but didn't work well on ES, I try to check it out every year but still doesn't work, but I did well with it for 3 years.
Whether or not it works doesn't depend on how "simple" it is.
Like anything based on moving averages, it will appear to work well in trending markets, and chew up your account in ranging markets. Whether it "works" depends on whether the market's trending or ranging, and if you know that with confidence, you don't need a moving-average-based system anyway.