There is no bear market in cash securities, pal.
I am 98 % cash 3 % options
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Too much Pessimism and too many shorts.
- Thread starter midlifeguy
- Start date
There is no bear market in cash securities, pal.
I am 98 % cash 3 % options
Quote from midlifeguy:
I think the market is due for a significant turn despite all the bad news. The market is a discounting mechanism. The amount of shorters jumping up and down about how much money they are making is reminding me of the tech bubble. Also, a friend at Fidelity told me on Thurs and Friday, people were calling in saying "I want to sell everything and go to cash".
Not even the FAST MONEY crowd is saying the market will go up now. When nobody thinks the market can
go up and everyone is convinced it is going much lower, that is the time to buy. I think we are overdue for a big rally. It could be the big interest rate cut that triggers it.
Too much doom and gloom. Stock market dealt blows worse than a recession could have.
Quote from HolyGrail:
How do I buy QID in my 401K when I only have 21 choices. 18 are mutual funds THAT DO NOT GO UP IN A DOWN MARKET. TWO ARE BOND FUNDS, AND 1 IS A MONEY MARKET.
Bond funds might be the best bet but it depends on what is in them. If they are fairly short term bonds it doesn't work.
If they are longer term bonds they will perform if the inflation scare eases.
Since the plan specifies which mutuals you can use unless one of them is specifically designed to be counter market you are screwed.
Anek
Quote from Anekdoten:
Bond funds might be the best bet but it depends on what is in them. If they are fairly short term bonds it doesn't work.
If they are longer term bonds they will perform if the inflation scare eases.
Since the plan specifies which mutuals you can use unless one of them is specifically designed to be counter market you are screwed.
Anek
I understand that. That is why I am 40% in cash. Cash is not looking all that weak given my choices.
bear markets always have dead cat bounce.
Quote from midlifeguy:
I think the market is due for a significant turn despite all the bad news. The market is a discounting mechanism. The amount of shorters jumping up and down about how much money they are making is reminding me of the tech bubble. Also, a friend at Fidelity told me on Thurs and Friday, people were calling in saying "I want to sell everything and go to cash".
Not even the FAST MONEY crowd is saying the market will go up now. When nobody thinks the market can
go up and everyone is convinced it is going much lower, that is the time to buy. I think we are overdue for a big rally. It could be the big interest rate cut that triggers it.
I don't sense that Mutual Fund holders have panicked yet. Traders are conditioned for anything so you really can't get a sentiment read from them in my opinion. When the Mutual fund holders call up and cash in then maybe a bottom is in place. It might take a while because most mutual fund holders haven't seen a wipeout in a while.
Quote from Capablanca:
Multi-year bear market cycle began with year 2000 dot com bust. Yes I know it sounds strange. The 2000 to 2002 fall was the first down leg. 2003 to 2007 was the return move that did not convincingly break above the 2000 highs. We are now looking at what is potentially the beginning of a leg 3 downward move.
The fundamental backdrop to this is a bubble during the stock mania of the late 90s transferred to housing that has now burst. If one recalls the 2000 bust, the Fed initiated a series of rate reductions that were touted to lift the market. It took two years for that to happen. During that time excuses proliferated as to why the market would head higher yet after each rally a downturn followed. Hey maybe this time the market can discount its way through a recession---but I wouldn't bet on it.
If you want an extreme example of the kind of problems being faced examine Japan after its bubble burst in 1990.
Great post.
We just had a double top
As anyone who trades knows, that is one of the worst things that can happen. This market could easily do what Japan's did, and have a 50 - 75% multi-year decline, and then stay flat for many years to come. I hope it doesn't happen for all our sakes, but the double top is truly worrisome.