Too Many Traders Are Cry Babies...

[dozu888]

Amazing perspective.

Did you reward your parents once you saw success?

sent them plenty of money and visited as much as possible... however I am not sure 'reward' is the right word lol, how does anyone put a price on the parenting effort.... I see it more of a 'pay forward' kind of thing...

like my daughter had a couple of difficult years, was stressful at times, (emotionally not financially)... and I was like well, this is me paying forward for whatever my parents endured... actually this idea is prevailing in the Chinese culture - raising a kid is you paying back whatever you owed to your parents lol.

 

[ironchef]

use a little higher resolution thinking and everything will make sense.

during these trade war events I have many discussions with friends in China.... nationalism brain washing running full steam over there..

and this is what I tell them - what is 'China'.. there are actually 2 groups - the average citizen and the interest group - the ruling party... I still have family and friends there, average citizens.. and in this trade war their interest actually aligns with President Trump! imagine if the markets open up, the average people will get better products and services at lower prices, while the zombie state owned enterprises will no longer suck blood.... but this of course jeopardizes the ruling party's position... a party that represents the complete opposite of the Western ideology and way of life.

so, it is impossible to love or hate China, without defining what the object is.

5000 years of totalitarian rules (emperors, warlords and all) is hard to change. Both groups accept that. Democracy is alien to the Chinese culture but capitalism and free enterprise is in their blood.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

sent them plenty of money and visited as much as possible... however I am not sure 'reward' is the right word lol, how does anyone put a price on the parenting effort.... I see it more of a 'pay forward' kind of thing...

like my daughter had a couple of difficult years, was stressful at times, (emotionally not financially)... and I was like well, this is me paying forward for whatever my parents endured... actually this idea is prevailing in the Chinese culture - raising a kid is you paying back whatever you owed to your parents lol.

That's why I asked. A lot of people I knew were saddled with supporting their parents forever as payback.

 

[dozu888]

That's why I asked. A lot of people I knew were saddled with supporting their parents forever as payback.

yeah every family is different.

my parents are still in fairly good health for their age... and their pensions are plenty to live on.. I can't even write them checks as they just refuse... so whenever I visit I have to bring a bag of rmb cash so they can't refuse lol...

and nowadays in China good services are available... many good homes where the elders can interact with each other and receive good medical care... my millie is in one... $200k plus some monthly fee gives you lifetime residency with all the services... great place near Hangzhou.... so this is a situation that money can buy happiness lol.

 

[KeLo]

Nobody cares and nobody said it would be easy.

Actually, there are many trading gurus saying that trading is easy. All one needs is the secret knowledge they can sell to you.
But if they are getting rich, why do they need to sell their knowledge?

if you are distressed by anything external, the pain is not due to the thing itself, but to your estimate of it; and this you have the power to revoke at any moment.
~ Marcus Aurelius

Stoicism... a worthy philosophy, esp. for traders, IMHO. But it is useful for anyone.
Too bad Commodus did not embrace it.

 

[tenny1886]

When the market is trending and ranges are huge, everyone is a winner. All are experts and part of the 10% money making traders but true test happens when the market is dead and ranges are less than 5 points, how you prevail and how you approach your trade that will define what kind of trader you are and if you really belong in the 10 %.

 

[El OchoCinco]

use a little higher resolution thinking and everything will make sense.

during these trade war events I have many discussions with friends in China.... nationalism brain washing running full steam over there..

and this is what I tell them - what is 'China'.. there are actually 2 groups - the average citizen and the interest group - the ruling party... I still have family and friends there, average citizens.. and in this trade war their interest actually aligns with President Trump! imagine if the markets open up, the average people will get better products and services at lower prices, while the zombie state owned enterprises will no longer suck blood.... but this of course jeopardizes the ruling party's position... a party that represents the complete opposite of the Western ideology and way of life.

so, it is impossible to love or hate China, without defining what the object is.

You think can buy Chepaer products from U.S. if China opened up their markets? Please entertain me with what could China buy cheaply from U.S. that they dont already make or can get from elsewhere in Asia....

China does not need Budweiser and shitty Fords. Apple, Dell and Intel all make their stuff in Asia for the most part.

 

[ironchef]

I totally agreed! For most people(that's 99.99%) should not try to learn trading. Get a job/career that they love and put money into 401K and low cost index fund. In 20-30 years, retire with a few millions.

Having read Market Wizards I and II and been at it(trading) on/off for a very long time, I'm not sure if the invested time and money was worth it. I'm just beginning now to be consistently profitable. I had huge gains and huge losses. Ups and downs. Tripling of accounts followed by blow ups.

Only now I have gained some consistency and making decent money. And even then I wonder if it's all worth it. Only because I have deep passion for markets and figuring things out that I'm willing to put up with that. During the entire time, I had/have a full on career that paid decent and continue to upgrade my skills. Only in the very beginning did I tried to do full time trading without much success because I was a bright eye bushy tale noob.

One of the most interesting and inspiring interview I've come across is with Dan Zanger. The guy that turned $11K into $18M in 18 months. Yes, it was during the super bubble era of the late 90s and he rode the tech and dotcom bubble with max leverage. It wasn't all luck though. He had been trading since 1976.

Read the article below:

http://chartpattern.com/articles/stocks-comm-2003.pdf


He started trading in 1976(way before most of the people including myself here on ET were around) and gave all of his profits up to that point back in 1991! So 15 years of profits gone. Then he finally learned his craft and when the internet bubble came in 1998/1999 he turned $11K to $18M in 18 months. Yes, those were crazy times.

But as they say luck is opportunity meeting preparation. Yes, he was lucky to have caught the biggest stock market bubble in history, but it was only after 22 years of hard work(1976-1998).

The point I'm trying to make is not the money made. But once you got your technique down and fully integrated your thinking then money in the market will come fast and furious.

But the question is are you willing to pay the price? For Dan Zanger, it was 22 years of gains, losses, and endless heartaches. For most people, the answer should be NO!

Life is short. Do what you are good at and destined to do. That's a very very long tail bet at payoff.

Some random thoughts:

1. We often confused the bull market with our trading skill. Making money during the dot com craze did not require skill. How do I know? been there done that. The real skillful ones were those who got out prior to the crash. Most of us didn't. Same thing is going to happen with this 2009-2019 bull market. Hopefully we are all wiser this time.

2. Many want to trade because they think it is easy money, you make a few clicks a day, with your laptop, while on the beach and make thousands every day. Those of us that survived more than a few months know it is furthest from the truth. I worked harder now than when I had a day job. Yes, only a few clicks now and then but the preparations, the research, the modeling, the testing, the analyzing, the writing many many VBA programs to test the strategies... is 24/7. You won't succeed unless you have the passion and perseverance to stick it out during the darkest down days.

3. Many think they can start with $10K and make a living trading. They are part of the 1% statistics. There is another group, us mom and pop amateur retails who had a day job, slowly accumulated a large war chest while polishing trading skills. One day, we cut the cord and never look back. Our success rate is much higher than 1%.

4. Finally, I think US equity traders with a large enough capital base who can withstand drawdowns without been wiped out will have a good chance of being profitable long term: The US equity market has a long term up bias.

 

[dozu888]

You think can buy Chepaer products from U.S. if China opened up their markets? Please entertain me with what could China buy cheaply from U.S. that they dont already make or can get from elsewhere in Asia....

China does not need Budweiser and shitty Fords. Apple, Dell and Intel all make their stuff in Asia for the most part.

well the imports are already significant and 'opening the markets' mean 2 things

- lowering tariff rates..there is a significant amount of grey market imports - people travel to or study in Western countries ship a lot of goods to China while evading the tariff.... 40-100% rate is a game changer. if these tariffs are removed, or brought down to the levels that the US used to charge before the trade war, the import amount will sure increase... the middle class there has the appetite not only for 'cheap' goods, but China is already the biggest buyer of luxury goods, and the purchase will even be bigger and without the hassle of going thru the 'grey market' if the tariffs go down;

- access to insurance/banking/financial services.... currently this area lags way behind the western countries... understandably so... imagine my pro boys go into the Chinese market without restrictions? they will kill the clueless locals... the A shares market is a mess... insurance/financial services products are inferior. If the western companies are allowed to compete, the quality/service will better, the prices will be cheaper.

 

[trader99]

Some random thoughts:

1. We often confused the bull market with our trading skill. Making money during the dot com craze did not require skill. How do I know? been there done that. The real skillful ones were those who got out prior to the crash. Most of us didn't. Same thing is going to happen with this 2009-2019 bull market. Hopefully we are all wiser this time.

2. Many want to trade because they think it is easy money, you make a few clicks a day, with your laptop, while on the beach and make thousands every day. Those of us that survived more than a few months know it is furthest from the truth. I worked harder now than when I had a day job. Yes, only a few clicks now and then but the preparations, the research, the modeling, the testing, the analyzing, the writing many many VBA programs to test the strategies... is 24/7. You won't succeed unless you have the passion and perseverance to stick it out during the darkest down days.

3. Many think they can start with $10K and make a living trading. They are part of the 1% statistics. There is another group, us mom and pop amateur retails who had a day job, slowly accumulated a large war chest while polishing trading skills. One day, we cut the cord and never look back. Our success rate is much higher than 1%.

4. Finally, I think US equity traders with a large enough capital base who can withstand drawdowns without been wiped out will have a good chance of being profitable long term: The US equity market has a long term up bias.

All valid points. Dan Zanger not only made record breaking returns but he kept most of it. I think in the ensuing 23 months he ran it up to $23M or something. Later on, he had drawdowns. Then bounced back up. He's total NET WINNINGS is still in the tens of millions. So it was not an "easy" thing. He spent over 20+ years refining his craft. To say this is easy is foolish.

I don't think one can make a living with $10K. Closer to $50K is good. $100K even better. I know some writers say you need $500K to daytrade for a living. That's excessive. Their math is off. They assume 20% annual return on $500K equal to $100K a year which is OK living(depending where you live it can be good or pissed poor).

I think once you honed your craft $50K is enough for futures. For equities with 4x intraday leverage, $50K is roughly $200K buying power. With 1% return a day or less that's still $1K-$2K day which is OK.

But no one can consistently make 1% a day. For equities, it's probably better to start with $100K and 4x buying power is $400K. So with 25 bp return that's $1K. That's why more money is better. That way you don't need to take excessive risk to make a living. 25bp isn't much to capture. That way you don't need to go kill yourself to get into risky huge moves.

With $250K and 4x you got $1M buying power. You only need 10bp to make a 1K a day. That's the advantage that fund managers have. They don't get shaken out, fake out, etc. When you have billions under management and position size correctly, the market isn't such a scary place. But us retail traders have to be super careful.

I don't trade stocks as much as I trade futures nowadays. But the exact same chart patterns apply.

Anyhow.