Quote from USMCinfantry:
There is no bull market, it's chatter and rumors to make the idiots think there's one. Irrational Exuberance.
Exactly, though of course a number of stocks have had nice upwards moves over the past few weeks.
This reminds me of an article that I'm reading for my spring session class - "Bubbles, Human Judgement, and Expert Opinion" by Robert J. Shiller, published in 2002 (his article was partly derived from an earlier article published in 2000). One key point that he suggests is that investors' expectations for future returns is an exponential moving average, with highest weights being given to the most recent returns. For example, if one sees a stock moving up 20% a day over a few days/weeks or whatever, one will be more likely to expect large future returns on the stock.
So in other words, the current media buzz about a potential bull market right now is mostly due to the recent upwards moves that we have seen, but I personally feel that the writing is on the wall for a downwards correction during the summer months.
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