TonySanDiego TRIES to trade

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secco,

perhaps it would be more illuminating if you share your written rules.

I have them. Pages of them. None are working right now.

Buy breakouts, sell breakouts, fade breakdowns, sell breakdowns, buy retracements, never buy retracements. Buy the HOD.. NEVER buy the HOD. Don't sell new lows, unless it is a breakdown of the LOD, at which time you should buy.

Buy when this MA crosses that RSI, except when it will cause a whipsaw.

Go with the trend.... where is the trend?? Is this the trend? Looks up to me, but wait it really is down if you look at it this way. No, if you will notice, it is up. Oh hell.. it is sideways.

Actually I KNOW that the market is watching and waiting, just panting after my lousy 100 shares.

I have read all the proper books.. attended the seminars, wasted money on classes, and spent untold hours here and elsewhere.

The only good I ever got was in a couple of chatrooms. A couple that charged and a couple that did not. Even that was not a perfect cure. I always missed the winners and caught the losers.

(Actually, I get a lot of good off this site too.)

So if anybody has some specific advice, that is, "watch for this and do this, it generally works" , then I am all ears.

Otherwise don't tell me I need to follow some rules, cause I have plenty to follow already. I follow them and get in a trade in accordance with all the rules. Then the market blithly runs hard against me, and continues running against all odds til I get out. Whereupon, the market calmly resumes it's normal behavior according to the "rules" until I get into another trade.

So now let's us all share our edge, so the less fortunate among us (namely me) :D can catch a few winners.

Anyway, thanks for the help.

No posts today... suffice it to say things did not go any better than yesterday.
 
Tony,

I emailed a very very simple method last nite. I didn't hear from you today. Okay that is your choice.

You have too many rules. Too many indicators. Too much going on in your head.

We have 4 days until Tuesday. Don't trade tomorrow it is a waste of time. You have four days to look at a simple method. If you don't like the 40 sma daily, then look at any other time frame. If you just have to trade the 1 minute, look at the 40 on the 1 minute. Not all stox are good. It takes some checking on your part.

Here is as specific as it gets: pick a stock with reasonable volume and volatility. By now you know what that is. Draw a horizontal line at the open, high, low, or close of the previous day. Just one line. I don't care what time frame you use, just be long above that line and short below it. When to get out...if long...when the current bar TRADES 6 cents below the low of the previous bar. Do the opposite if short.

Let's break this down so you understand the simple dynamics of what you are doing. Using the O,H,L, or C as a pivot makes your pivot something that everyone else is looking at too. No secret formula, no special indicator optimized. When the bar CLOSES below it, short. Stay in as long as you are making lower highs. Get out when the high of the previous bar is taken out. This means that local resistance has given way and is suspect.

The shorter the time frame, the smaller the profit opportunity will be, but the smaller the risk will be as well.

This works. It is completely objective...meaning you only have to react, not think. As you grow in this method, you will notice things like, "hey look at that, when the price crosses my line at the same time it is crossing the 40, it really took off for a nice move."

If you do not check this out, then you should stop trading. This works. Period.
 
Inandlong,

I apologize, I had completely overlooked your reply. And when I used my Eudora mail program for a spell checker, I noticed your e-mail.

Indeed I will look at what you wrote.

That is exactly what I was referring to when I mentioned share.

Thanks for both the reply and the e-mail.
 
Originally posted by TonySanDiego
...attended the seminars, wasted money on classes, and spent untold hours here and elsewhere...
More...

Hi Tony,

I haven't been around much because I'm on a business trip/vacation.

Here's my question and some helpful suggestions for you.

Have you received any training in realtime during the market trading hours?

In other words...did any of these seminars or any individual teach you to trade via themselves "walking the talk" during actual trading...right there in front of your own eyes with real money on the line?

Here's a piece of advice...the next trader that tells you how to trade...or how to use a specific trade strategy they are using...

ask them to post a chart, ask them to join you in a realtime chat discussion (ICQ, mIRC, etc.)...

ask those that's giving you advice if they are successful traders...if they say yes...

offer to pay them to teach you in realtime (in person or via private chat room or something).

Make sure they have a verifiable trading record. Make sure their trading methodology is something your interested in or have some commonalities with your own.

Your money spent this way is money well spent and is a much better solution then trial-n-error.

Here's something else to think about.

I recently met a trader that was losing about $400 per week for the past 3 months via trial-n-error. Another trader was losing about $300 per week for the past 5 months.

The gal losing $400/weekly for 3 months equals about a total loss of $4,800.

The guy losing $300/weekly for 5 months equals about a total loss of $6,000...

both via trial-n-error.

The gal said she will call it quits if September is not a profitable month.

The guy finally gave up the trial-n-error trading methodology and is currently being mentor by a successful trader.

This week he's up $750 via his mentor trading methodology (previous week he profited $1250) although he still believes trial-n-error trading methodology would have eventually worked (hmmm).

His suggestion that "trial-n-error would have eventually worked" scares me a little and tells a lot about the mentality of most traders.

Tony...my point is this...the same suggestion I make to any other struggling trader...

find yourself a trading mentor...a realtime mentor (not some weekend gig)...that will teach you via putting his/her own money on the line while you watch and learn before he/she lets you put your own hard-earned money on the line as he/she coaches and educates you thru each trade.

Compensate him/her well.

It's money well spent and money you will most likely earn back faster than any possible trial-n-error trading methodology.

Remember this...over 90% of traders will fail within 2 years (different stats from different sources will still show a high percentage of failures).

I know I use that term trial-n-error loosely...

I simply mean this...a trader that's using or testing something with real money that was not taught to him/her in person by a successful teacher (mentor) that put their own real money on the line...is to me...trial-n-error...

trying to figure out the particulars of the trade setup on your own with real money...losses while on the road with a destination to consistent profits.

What's the failure rate of mentored traders?

I don't know many traders that have been mentored nor have I ever seen actual numbers...

yet, those that I personally know that have been mentored (about 10 traders)...

only three have failed at trading because two went back to their trial-n-error method and 1 followed everthing that was taught to him and still failed.

Further, I often wonder how many traders at Elite trader have actually been mentored in realtime during actual trading...sounds like a poll is needed here at Elite on this particular topic.

I should be back at the chat room by Sept 9th, Monday.

At that time...I'll probably start a thread here at Elite to see how many successful traders will be willing to mentor other traders.

Mentors that are willing to verified their trading records and discuss their trading methodology in private to those struggling traders that may be interested.

This is a thread you should pay close attention to when I start it.

Why will I do this thread? I get several private messages or emails per week from traders from Elite that ask about a list of successful traders that do mentoring because many know that I myself was mentored by a successful trader (my mentor no longer teaches).

Also, I'm going to ask how many traders here at Elite have been mentored in realtime by someone or via some organization during actual market trading and find out who taught them.

Thus, I'm going to compile my own list of traders with verifiable trading records, able to teach in realtime via their own trading accounts before asking their student to mimic the trading methodology being taught...

a private list that will include Names, Phone Numbers, Addresses, Email Addresses, Fees and any other important info.

I'll send this list only to those that I feel are in need of help and have asked for help and truly want to succeed at a trading game that can be consistently won...those that want to leave their egos behind...those that want to let go of the "my way or the highway" mentality...those that want to succeed much faster than the most expensive school in town...

trial-n-error.

Always remember...walk the talk.

NihabaAshi
 
Originally posted by TonySanDiego
secco,

perhaps it would be more illuminating if you share your written rules.

I have them. Pages of them. None are working right now.

Buy breakouts, sell breakouts, fade breakdowns, sell breakdowns, buy retracements, never buy retracements. Buy the HOD.. NEVER buy the HOD. Don't sell new lows, unless it is a breakdown of the LOD, at which time you should buy.

Buy when this MA crosses that RSI, except when it will cause a whipsaw.

Go with the trend.... where is the trend?? Is this the trend? Looks up to me, but wait it really is down if you look at it this way. No, if you will notice, it is up. Oh hell.. it is sideways.

Actually I KNOW that the market is watching and waiting, just panting after my lousy 100 shares.

I have read all the proper books.. attended the seminars, wasted money on classes, and spent untold hours here and elsewhere.

The only good I ever got was in a couple of chatrooms. A couple that charged and a couple that did not. Even that was not a perfect cure. I always missed the winners and caught the losers.

(Actually, I get a lot of good off this site too.)

So if anybody has some specific advice, that is, "watch for this and do this, it generally works" , then I am all ears.

Otherwise don't tell me I need to follow some rules, cause I have plenty to follow already. I follow them and get in a trade in accordance with all the rules. Then the market blithly runs hard against me, and continues running against all odds til I get out. Whereupon, the market calmly resumes it's normal behavior according to the "rules" until I get into another trade.

So now let's us all share our edge, so the less fortunate among us (namely me) :D can catch a few winners.

Anyway, thanks for the help.

No posts today... suffice it to say things did not go any better than yesterday.
More...


Tony, not that I'm a great master trader or anything but I used to do ok with my trading until my margined long term account, "non trading" took me for everything I had "LOL" ( Ahhhh memories...) during this ugly bear... anyway, thats another story....

Maybe you are focusing to much on your buys and not enough on your exits. I see that your rules are full of buy this and buy that ect....

I always here people worry about getting whipsawed to death, I think this has something to do with the need to be right more then wrong ....I would rather draw a line and buy when it goes above and sell the instant it crosses below over and over then hold a position for a large loss or attemt to predict the market. You don't need to be right more then wrong to make money.

Think of it like this, Trading has four possible outcomes --- small win, small loss, big win and big loss. Out of these you must eliminate the big loss by keeping all the losses small. Define you risk and stick to , no hoping it will come back, like a machine you calmly exit. At any time one of those little losses can turn into a big one. Ever see people make a profit on almost every day of the month and that one trade brings them into the red. They do this month after month.... You need to reverse this ... have many small losses, small wins and then that one big winner that will pull over the top.....

You MUST keep the big win by letting profits run.... Have a plan for the trade and the minute the trade is not doing what you want ,exit..
Even if you have to do it a few times, eventually you will get into one that will go your way.... I believe the key is in the exits and that one could even trade with random buys. don't focus on making money when you trade....focus on not losing money


For me, I've had more problems with letting profits run.
If you don't let profits run you end up with small wins and small losses...basically flat...... now I just use a moving average on a smaller time frame and keep moving my stop as the sma moves. This Has kept in in some winners that I would have never have stayed in otherwise.... I'm trying to incorporate this to the e-mini, shrinking my timeframe and see how it works..... Will go live in the next two weeks when my accounts are open and see what happens... This is a little different for me as it's only one position at a time. When I was trading equities I would take many positions at once, long and short and then manage them by keeping the big loss out of the picture.

Also it's important to trade the same strategy , don't keep changing it when things don't go your way.

Try to define an area where it will either go up or down, pick your side and define your risk. all you need is 50/50 forget about 60% and 70% , not happening ...

Good luck ...

Nick
 
TONY:

i will not post my plan....my plan is MY plan and is personal to ME.......but i will share with you this:

YOUR plan should have rules that make you ANTICIPATE the market's moves.....TRADING IS NOT A GAME OF REACTION!!!! what's that??? not a game of reaction??? yeah, that's what i said........i know you've heard and read otherwise........but that instills a scalper's mentality where you're looking for a few ticks here and there....

so how do you anticipate??? first, you need to develop a method of analysis that is PERSONAL TO YOU that allows you to form an OPINION about the position of the market relevant to the timeframe you are trading.......what's that??? you heard you shouldn't have opinions about the market??? WRONG AGAIN!!! there are only two groups of people who think you shouldn't have an opinion about the market to trade: (1) TRADERS who can't make a dime in the markets, and (2) successful traders who have FOOLED THEMSELVES into believing they aren't trading their OPINIONS..........without an OPINION about the market you should not be trading because if you do you will get pushed and pulled by news, other people, and MOVEMENT OF PRICE ITSELF leading you to get stupid and emotional and become part of the HERD OF LOSING TRADERS.........

but you gotta always remember this.......your opinion is just your opinion....YOU COULD BE WRONG!!! and you WILL BE WRONG MANY TIMES........that's why your plan must have a method that allows you to form YOUR OPINION about the position of the market and a CONDITION THAT NEGATES YOUR OPINION!!!! that is where your initial stop is placed if you initiate a trade based on your opinion....


ok, what do i mean by POSITION OF THE MARKET??? i mean, WHAT IS THE TREND in the timeframe i trade??? how far along is that trend....is it ready for a reaction??? is that trend in the same direction or is it counter to the higher-degree trend??? what does all this tell me??? i'm trying to figure out WHICH SIDE I'M PLAYING!!!! and WHEN I SHOULD PLAY IT!!! got that??? at any one time, i'm looking to play only one side--long or short--and never looking to play both sides....if i don't know which side to play I DON'T PLAY AT ALL!!!! THAT IS A RULE!!!

(to be continued later tonight........)
 
i'm watching the following........

i'm waiting for a BIG move in the NQ (don't know whicha way yet).....chances are it will happen next week after the holiday.....but ya never know..........
 

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I just thought I would check in to see how well you're doing. I recall that you were trading at Echo, and had gone through their training and were pretty confident. I have not read most of the daily postings, and was just genuinely interested in your progress. (I did notice that you have received a lot of suggestions and ideas).

By this time, I would expect you to be trading 500-1000 shares on your opening only plays (perhaps 20 stocks, hoping for fills on 3 or 4), and bringing in some fair money.

Have you played the MOC game at all yet? Have you gotten into pairs trading at all? Momentum has been pretty easy during July and the beginning of August, and should return after the Holiday.

Hope all is well!!

Good Luck

Don
 
Thanks Don,

Doing OK in opening orders, still suck at anything else.

Didn't go to the school. Had back surgery instead. :D

Yep, got a lot of suggestion, all were appreciated, and some were useful.

Not trading 500/1000 shares either. :eek: Still at 100. Will soon up my shares in OO though, as soon as I am sure I have the methodology down pat, and I verify a longer term positive expectancy. I put in approx 130 stocks, trying for 3 - 4 really good fills. I will post my OO results on your thread henceforth. (save my thread for bellyaching about how the market mistreats me)

I haven't tried MOC yet, and am not sure I care for pairs trading.

Mostly still flopping around trying to find something that fits me.

Thanks,
 
Thanks, secco,

I agree with you on what I need to do.

My problem is more in the actual doing... IE, upon WHAT do I base my opinion. I have assuredly had a multitude of opinions about what the market might do. Unfortunately, the market uniformly has disagreed with my opinion. :(

I admit to sometimes mistaking an uptrend for a downtrend and vice versa, but that hasn't helped either. I fade the trend I think I see, thus going WITH the trend, and get stopped out because I really did have the trend right in the first place, and you should NEVER go against the trend.

See how complicated this all is. :confused:

One thing I do have down stone cold, is the being WRONG part. I could give seminars on that....

Thanks for the input. I really am reading all these things to try to distill some methodology I can get my head around.
 
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