Mr Oz:
Really appreciate your contributions. If I seem harsh with my comment it is just that I am eager to learn, please do not take it as a question of your wisdom/experience, although I have always been skeptical with people who write books and give seminars (hey I just want to be honest, believe me if your stuff is as good as advertised I am very sure I can let a lot of people know about it). Without further ado:
I have some questions regarding your strategy as well, I am not referring to overnight stuff, all of my questions are ONLY for intraday trading. I only trade listed hence I am not referring to any Nasdaq stocks either.
I have filter software and I have recreated some of your scans and watched some of the scenarios unfold. I do not question the effectiveness of this strategy in swing trading, but I have many concerns about whether this works at all in intraday trading.
Every strategy has its subtle details, if I understand correctly an ideal set-up for your sky scraper would be something that is stretched (overbought whether by eye ball, bollinger bands, stochastics, whatever) with declining volume. On the bottom picking play I would assume that you are looking for something oversold with extreme volume to hopefully signify a bottom. Ideally Obviously it needs to be say at least $20 per share and trades say half a million shares a day, but I am wondering if there are anything else that would increase the probability of your shots. Do you short stocks that are near their 52 week high's? Do you long stocks that are near their 52 week low's? Or there are additional criterias? Like certain candlestick patterns (doji/hammer/shooting stars).
The examples provided on your site are all best case scenarios and really doesn't do anything to illustrate how would you really execute this play when something goes wrong.
For example, a stock like GMT or PDX, that has been selling off on super thick volume will obviously provide a stronger bounce than say, some stock that is on a casual pullback. But with increased volatility you will lose half a point in a stock like PDX in no time flat when you mis-time your entry, I think in intraday trading "target" is total garbage, you don't know where the thing will close at, you are not holding it overnight and you have to start taking profit off the table at some point.
That's why if you ask me there is no way you can use a PRECISE risk/reward ratio when it comes to any intraday trade, the best you can do is to say I am not giving up too wide of a stop (because you always have to factor in slippage). What exactly do you use as a trailing stop? (Moving Averages? Bollinger Bands?) How much wiggle room do you actually give your positions? How do you size your intraday positions?
Then there is the issue of shorting a stock like EMC, you see the Nasdaq going up in your face and EMC is . . . well EMC . . . What do you do? Tighten your stops? Get out? All I am asking is a few real world examples (preferably trades that didn't go 100% as planned,) from a day trader's perspective. I want to know how reactionary you are to tape/futures and how much do you let it influence your trading.
And of course, the biggest draw back of this strategy is that it will give you a lot of random names, and you will be playing unfamiliar territory a lot, and you won't know the rthyme of the stock and can't tell what's a shake out etc . . . Do you LIMIT your filter to a basket of stocks you trade over and over again?
Anyway when my filter is fully running I will play it more with 200 shares, really appreciate any info you can provide, this will be a very strong addition to my reactionary game . . .
Really appreciate your contributions. If I seem harsh with my comment it is just that I am eager to learn, please do not take it as a question of your wisdom/experience, although I have always been skeptical with people who write books and give seminars (hey I just want to be honest, believe me if your stuff is as good as advertised I am very sure I can let a lot of people know about it). Without further ado:
I have some questions regarding your strategy as well, I am not referring to overnight stuff, all of my questions are ONLY for intraday trading. I only trade listed hence I am not referring to any Nasdaq stocks either.
I have filter software and I have recreated some of your scans and watched some of the scenarios unfold. I do not question the effectiveness of this strategy in swing trading, but I have many concerns about whether this works at all in intraday trading.
Every strategy has its subtle details, if I understand correctly an ideal set-up for your sky scraper would be something that is stretched (overbought whether by eye ball, bollinger bands, stochastics, whatever) with declining volume. On the bottom picking play I would assume that you are looking for something oversold with extreme volume to hopefully signify a bottom. Ideally Obviously it needs to be say at least $20 per share and trades say half a million shares a day, but I am wondering if there are anything else that would increase the probability of your shots. Do you short stocks that are near their 52 week high's? Do you long stocks that are near their 52 week low's? Or there are additional criterias? Like certain candlestick patterns (doji/hammer/shooting stars).
The examples provided on your site are all best case scenarios and really doesn't do anything to illustrate how would you really execute this play when something goes wrong.
For example, a stock like GMT or PDX, that has been selling off on super thick volume will obviously provide a stronger bounce than say, some stock that is on a casual pullback. But with increased volatility you will lose half a point in a stock like PDX in no time flat when you mis-time your entry, I think in intraday trading "target" is total garbage, you don't know where the thing will close at, you are not holding it overnight and you have to start taking profit off the table at some point.
That's why if you ask me there is no way you can use a PRECISE risk/reward ratio when it comes to any intraday trade, the best you can do is to say I am not giving up too wide of a stop (because you always have to factor in slippage). What exactly do you use as a trailing stop? (Moving Averages? Bollinger Bands?) How much wiggle room do you actually give your positions? How do you size your intraday positions?
Then there is the issue of shorting a stock like EMC, you see the Nasdaq going up in your face and EMC is . . . well EMC . . . What do you do? Tighten your stops? Get out? All I am asking is a few real world examples (preferably trades that didn't go 100% as planned,) from a day trader's perspective. I want to know how reactionary you are to tape/futures and how much do you let it influence your trading.
And of course, the biggest draw back of this strategy is that it will give you a lot of random names, and you will be playing unfamiliar territory a lot, and you won't know the rthyme of the stock and can't tell what's a shake out etc . . . Do you LIMIT your filter to a basket of stocks you trade over and over again?
Anyway when my filter is fully running I will play it more with 200 shares, really appreciate any info you can provide, this will be a very strong addition to my reactionary game . . .
. The calculator you gave us in the seminar does not have this stop loss calculation on it. Is there something wrong with my calculator or is the one you show in your post is only for your own use?