Tomorrow's Payroll Number

I

Ivanovich

This Friday the NFP report from the BLS could easily surpass 700,000 people, driven primarily by temporary census hirings and by Birth/Death adjustments. The Census Bureau reported that between the weeks of May 9 and May 15, there were 573,779 employed census workers. In the prior month, for the week ended April 17, there were 156,335 census workers employed, or a differential of 417,444 newly hired census workers between April and May. Keep in mind that in the May NFP report, the benefit from census workers was at 66,000, or 90,335 less than the Census reported number. As a result, due to the BLS' voodoo math and double counting, its is distinctly possible that the Census alone will add up to 507,779 workers (organic hirings of 417k and the plug for the prior period of 90k). Also, recall that the Birth-Death adjustment in April "added" another 188,000 workers. Retaining the same level of statistical adjustment, and the May NFP number will be at 700,000 before even one real full-time person has been added to the economy in the month of May!
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From ZH.

Like them or hate them, it sure is an amusing read.
 
man its weird 1984 is required reading in high school. maybe its so they can tell you its science fiction and you wont realize youre living through it. Ministry of truth will strike again....
 
OK, I am going to go off on one of my apparent "mindless" mind meanderings...but, if you follow me...I think you will agree...

Last night I was wondering when our latest "sovereign debt" (aka monetized bubble) will explode...and I saw another thread on ET (kassz007's thread about growth in Canada) and I thought to myself - "What a complete lie!" The thread is making the assumption that
2 * 3.2% (the "stated US GDP growth") is 6.4 which is roughly 6.1%. But, the 3.2% growth in GDP "stated" by the US is complete BS!!!!! Here is my thread on our faked GDP number...
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=197676&highlight=GDP

How does this all relate to the soon upcoming crash? I finally realized that like any con game...the gig will be up, when people no longer trust ANY of the numbers! It will seem like this....

6 + 8 = 25 in one case....but
6 + 8 = 17 in another case....in neither case is the answer correct and it is completely illogical to think that a simple addition will result in different answers depending upon when the question is answered...this is what the people will finally realize...and the gig is up......more mathematically this will look like...


(money controlled by those who don't believe the public numbers) > [ (money controlled by those who believe the numbers) + (money controlled by those just "following the trends") ]

The left hand side is RAPIDLY approaching the point where the above statement is true. When the above statement is true, then the system will crash.

-gastropod
 
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